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How much of that is due to changes in procedure (additional cleaning, more involved check-in, etc.?) How much of that is due to healthcare workers leaving the l

How much of that is due to changes in procedure (additional cleaning, more involved check-in, etc.?) How much of that is due to healthcare workers leaving the local area (e.g., for incredibly lucrative travel nursing positions) or the industry generally (due to burnout, unemployment incentives, vaccine refusal, etc.?) Finally, how much of the current situation is due to the "catch-up" effect of people who were unable or unwilling to have sub-optimal diagnosed in the midst of the 2020 hysteria and are now seeking treatment for more and more serious conditions? There is much more at play here than the disease itself. Government, media, and institutions should be held to account for their role in exacerbating the situation.

dragontamer 5y ago
A month ago, I had no problem getting a flu shot. Walk in, got the shot and left. Like 5 minutes. This past week, COVID-19 cases are triple what they used to be and flu cases are doubled in my county. It doesn't take a genius to figure out the problem. Same clinic, same staff, just one month apart with a sudden COVID and Flu surge. It was even the same nurse who administered the two shots. ----- And the receptionist said, sorry for the wait, we've had an explosion of COVID-19 cases. EDIT: "Overrun" was the receptionist's word actually. But you get the gist.
- argiopetech 5y ago
  Fair enough. Out of curiosity, do you live in one of the areas the CDC lists as having a high COVID-related ICU bed occupancy? https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-patient-impact.html https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-patient-impact.html
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    Category D (60% to 69%) area. There's no ICU at this facility I go to. Just a neighborhood clinic. But enough people are taking COVID19 tests that they're having issues keeping up. ------- Everyone around me was in for non-COVID19 reasons. We all came in on maybe Thursday/Friday/Saturday, saw the 4-hour wait, and decided to come back on Sunday to stand in line before the clinic opened. But the number of COVID19 walk-in patients was clearly big enough to cause all of us in line to postpone our health care (again, mine was pretty whatever, just a TDAP/Wooping Cough booster, the person in front of me had mysterious pains and the person behind me had a mysterious blister). So nothing "serious" mind you, but... there's a lot of self-selection bias here since we all came back another day. ---- Furthermore, the clinic has temporarily suspended its giveout of flu shots. Its really overrun right now and quite evident. I drive past it every day to work and I can see that its parking lot is completely packed. The sign-in line took 45 minutes to clear after the clinic opened. That's just walk in, type in your name + problem into the computer, and sit down. A lot of us standing outside in the cold waiting just to get to the damn computer screen to sign in.
    - argiopetech 5y ago
      Thanks! I'm trying to build a mental model of how well that data corresponds to the "on the ground" situation. Evey datum helps. It's likely unknowable, but I'd be curious to know how many of those coming in for COVID tests are being required to test. We all know at this point the symptoms of COVID. It's a generally good idea (as well as the most comfortable option) to avoid the public when ill. Exercising a sick day or call-out option to rest and recoup seems more sensible and causes less risk to the public and the capacity of healthcare institutions than sending every case of the sniffles for a test.
      - dragontamer 5y ago
        > It's likely unknowable, but I'd be curious to know how many of those coming in for COVID tests are being required to test. The data that's important is "percent positive". When the covid19 cases are 5% positive or less, you've got accurate statistics. When its above 5%, then things get less-and-less accurate. That is to say: you want roughly 95% of people getting COVID19 tests to be negative, to ensure you're "counting" as many people as possible. We're at 10%+ positive now. Which means our county is no longer with accurate covid19 counts. --------- Its a local goal that's been emphasized. Test as many cases as possible so that we get as accurate a picture as possible. I'm not sure if this is applicable to the rest of the country. But we really do strive for 5% positive around here, and its kinda bad that we're failing that now... and is highly indicative that we're undercounting cases severely. I mean... 4-hour wait times, amirite? If you've got (maybe) COVID19, and the receptionist says "4-hour wait before your test", will you really sit there? Or will you go home and just take off of work for a few days? Its a natural behavior, but that's the sort of thing that leads to dramatic undercounts of COVID19 during these times.

dragontamer 5y ago

A month ago, I had no problem getting a flu shot. Walk in, got the shot and left. Like 5 minutes. This past week, COVID-19 cases are triple what they used to be and flu cases are doubled in my county. It doesn't take a genius to figure out the problem. Same clinic, same staff, just one month apart with a sudden COVID and Flu surge. It was even the same nurse who administered the two shots. ----- And the receptionist said, sorry for the wait, we've had an explosion of COVID-19 cases. EDIT: "Overrun" was the receptionist's word actually. But you get the gist.

argiopetech 5y ago
Fair enough. Out of curiosity, do you live in one of the areas the CDC lists as having a high COVID-related ICU bed occupancy? https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-patient-impact.html https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-patient-impact.html
- dragontamer 5y ago
  Category D (60% to 69%) area. There's no ICU at this facility I go to. Just a neighborhood clinic. But enough people are taking COVID19 tests that they're having issues keeping up. ------- Everyone around me was in for non-COVID19 reasons. We all came in on maybe Thursday/Friday/Saturday, saw the 4-hour wait, and decided to come back on Sunday to stand in line before the clinic opened. But the number of COVID19 walk-in patients was clearly big enough to cause all of us in line to postpone our health care (again, mine was pretty whatever, just a TDAP/Wooping Cough booster, the person in front of me had mysterious pains and the person behind me had a mysterious blister). So nothing "serious" mind you, but... there's a lot of self-selection bias here since we all came back another day. ---- Furthermore, the clinic has temporarily suspended its giveout of flu shots. Its really overrun right now and quite evident. I drive past it every day to work and I can see that its parking lot is completely packed. The sign-in line took 45 minutes to clear after the clinic opened. That's just walk in, type in your name + problem into the computer, and sit down. A lot of us standing outside in the cold waiting just to get to the damn computer screen to sign in.
  - argiopetech 5y ago
    Thanks! I'm trying to build a mental model of how well that data corresponds to the "on the ground" situation. Evey datum helps. It's likely unknowable, but I'd be curious to know how many of those coming in for COVID tests are being required to test. We all know at this point the symptoms of COVID. It's a generally good idea (as well as the most comfortable option) to avoid the public when ill. Exercising a sick day or call-out option to rest and recoup seems more sensible and causes less risk to the public and the capacity of healthcare institutions than sending every case of the sniffles for a test.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      > It's likely unknowable, but I'd be curious to know how many of those coming in for COVID tests are being required to test. The data that's important is "percent positive". When the covid19 cases are 5% positive or less, you've got accurate statistics. When its above 5%, then things get less-and-less accurate. That is to say: you want roughly 95% of people getting COVID19 tests to be negative, to ensure you're "counting" as many people as possible. We're at 10%+ positive now. Which means our county is no longer with accurate covid19 counts. --------- Its a local goal that's been emphasized. Test as many cases as possible so that we get as accurate a picture as possible. I'm not sure if this is applicable to the rest of the country. But we really do strive for 5% positive around here, and its kinda bad that we're failing that now... and is highly indicative that we're undercounting cases severely. I mean... 4-hour wait times, amirite? If you've got (maybe) COVID19, and the receptionist says "4-hour wait before your test", will you really sit there? Or will you go home and just take off of work for a few days? Its a natural behavior, but that's the sort of thing that leads to dramatic undercounts of COVID19 during these times.