4 ms·

This is a rare care where "astronomically low" is actually underselling how unlikely something is.

by bspammer 5y ago

noasaservice 5y ago
I've already ran across 4 (albeit drained) BTC addresses in the last 4 hours. Sooo... what's 4 astronomicals?
flatline 5y ago
Effectively zero is the term in probability: it will not happen, but is technically not impossible.
s5300 5y ago
I mean, I found 10 used wallets not within 1000 pages of the first nor last page of his website in roughly 5 minutes. I’m fully aware behind the math of finding a wallet actually holding anything… but I was fairly weirded out to come across 10 wallets that quickly. Most had their last txn out roughly 2019.
- teaearlgraycold 5y ago
  You didn’t come upon those wallets by chance. Whatever rules the site uses to order wallets isn’t unique and some other (insecure) wallet generator uses the same technique. That or someone is actually using the site to come up with wallet keys.
- hjorthjort 5y ago
  I've noticed that there are a few hardcoded ones on the final page, where the account exists and the key is wrong. I'd say odds are that the website is wrong, but you can always load those keys in a wallet and see if they give you control over the actual address. If that works, I'd assume it's the case that some people have used weak keys (for example, a popular Ethereum wallet would actually generate 256 bits of entropy but accidentally truncate it to 32 bits in an operation), and any funds in those wallets will have been snagged long ago. Point being: generate a private key properly, and no one will ever find it. EDIT: I realize this is another page then the one I've seen previously, but I think the same idea applies. That one had support for Ethereum, too, and on the final page was an account with a balance.
  - JimWestergren 5y ago
    You must mean this: https://keys.lol/ethereum/904625697166532776746648320380374280100293470930272690489102837043110636675 https://keys.lol/ethereum/9046256971665327767466483203803742...
    - tjungblut 5y ago
      wow, the private key with 10.28 eth can't be imported anywhere. The others work and are already being emptied. One way to lose your money for sure. EDIT: the aforementioned wallet can also be found as the 0x00 wallet on the very first page. Interesting collision? EDIT2: it's hardcoded https://github.com/SjorsO/keys-generator/blob/master/ethereum-keys.go#L16-L48 https://github.com/SjorsO/keys-generator/blob/master/ethereu...
      - pokepim 5y ago
        Why it cant be imported anywhere?
        tjungblut 5y ago
        it's the maximum private key https://github.com/ethereum/go-ethereum/blob/master/crypto/crypto.go#L49 https://github.com/ethereum/go-ethereum/blob/master/crypto/c... - so the public key is actually just a example and not the real public key for that private key.
- stavros 5y ago
  Can you post the page?
  - s5300 5y ago
    A bit too busy to navigate that (just got an iPhone for the first time in my life, not good at navigating safari history in bulk yet) But one of them was 1337, another some variant of 420-420xxx +-2 pages, another some variant of 1000000-1000000,xxx,xxx,xxx +-2 pages on those. I can tell you there was nothing on 8008135 though
    - bspammer 5y ago
      So not random at all, other people had exactly the same idea as you and picked the same numbers. I would have been more surprised to see zero traffic at those addresses to be honest.
      - s5300 5y ago
        I’m confused. There’s a singular emptied walled on 1337 and nothing else +-25 at a minimum from it, I didn’t look any further. You’re telling me that other people had exactly the same idea, but out of everyone in crypto, ever, it was only a singular person? That seems more outlandish than the fact there’s one there IMO.
cromulent 5y ago
By many orders of magnitude, I think. There are only estimated to be 10^24 or so stars, which is a lot less than 2^256, right. Astronomical is not in the same league.
- kloch 5y ago
  This is a rare case where “many orders of magnitude” is underselling how unlikely something is. It is estimated there are 10^80 atoms in the observable universe.
- boringg 5y ago
  To be fair to stars, and for accuracies sake: we don't actually know how many stars are in the universe but we have some broad guesses.
- andreareina 5y ago
  There are an estimated 10^80 fundamental particles (quarks, electrons, photons... mostly photons) in the observable universe, which is pretty close to 2^256 as these things go. "Cosmological" doesn't have quite the same ring to it though.
  - Kye 5y ago
    How about sub-quantum? Maybe there's something smaller than the chance, but nobody alive will be the one to discover it.
- bspammer 5y ago
  Even if we measure the widest distance (width of the known universe) by the smallest unit (planck length), we only get to 10^61, which is still 16 orders of magnitude away.
  - FabHK 5y ago
    oh, but space is 3d, so we're talking 10^183. Just put a computer in every 10^100 of those cubes, and we'll find Satoshi's key in no time.

This is a rare care where "astronomically low" is actually underselling how unlikely something is.

noasaservice 5y ago

I've already ran across 4 (albeit drained) BTC addresses in the last 4 hours. Sooo... what's 4 astronomicals?

flatline 5y ago

Effectively zero is the term in probability: it will not happen, but is technically not impossible.

s5300 5y ago

I mean, I found 10 used wallets not within 1000 pages of the first nor last page of his website in roughly 5 minutes. I’m fully aware behind the math of finding a wallet actually holding anything… but I was fairly weirded out to come across 10 wallets that quickly. Most had their last txn out roughly 2019.

teaearlgraycold 5y ago
You didn’t come upon those wallets by chance. Whatever rules the site uses to order wallets isn’t unique and some other (insecure) wallet generator uses the same technique. That or someone is actually using the site to come up with wallet keys.
hjorthjort 5y ago
I've noticed that there are a few hardcoded ones on the final page, where the account exists and the key is wrong. I'd say odds are that the website is wrong, but you can always load those keys in a wallet and see if they give you control over the actual address. If that works, I'd assume it's the case that some people have used weak keys (for example, a popular Ethereum wallet would actually generate 256 bits of entropy but accidentally truncate it to 32 bits in an operation), and any funds in those wallets will have been snagged long ago. Point being: generate a private key properly, and no one will ever find it. EDIT: I realize this is another page then the one I've seen previously, but I think the same idea applies. That one had support for Ethereum, too, and on the final page was an account with a balance.
- JimWestergren 5y ago
  You must mean this: https://keys.lol/ethereum/904625697166532776746648320380374280100293470930272690489102837043110636675 https://keys.lol/ethereum/9046256971665327767466483203803742...
  - tjungblut 5y ago
    wow, the private key with 10.28 eth can't be imported anywhere. The others work and are already being emptied. One way to lose your money for sure. EDIT: the aforementioned wallet can also be found as the 0x00 wallet on the very first page. Interesting collision? EDIT2: it's hardcoded https://github.com/SjorsO/keys-generator/blob/master/ethereum-keys.go#L16-L48 https://github.com/SjorsO/keys-generator/blob/master/ethereu...
    - pokepim 5y ago
      Why it cant be imported anywhere?
      - tjungblut 5y ago
        it's the maximum private key https://github.com/ethereum/go-ethereum/blob/master/crypto/crypto.go#L49 https://github.com/ethereum/go-ethereum/blob/master/crypto/c... - so the public key is actually just a example and not the real public key for that private key.
stavros 5y ago
Can you post the page?
- s5300 5y ago
  A bit too busy to navigate that (just got an iPhone for the first time in my life, not good at navigating safari history in bulk yet) But one of them was 1337, another some variant of 420-420xxx +-2 pages, another some variant of 1000000-1000000,xxx,xxx,xxx +-2 pages on those. I can tell you there was nothing on 8008135 though
  - bspammer 5y ago
    So not random at all, other people had exactly the same idea as you and picked the same numbers. I would have been more surprised to see zero traffic at those addresses to be honest.
    - s5300 5y ago
      I’m confused. There’s a singular emptied walled on 1337 and nothing else +-25 at a minimum from it, I didn’t look any further. You’re telling me that other people had exactly the same idea, but out of everyone in crypto, ever, it was only a singular person? That seems more outlandish than the fact there’s one there IMO.

cromulent 5y ago

By many orders of magnitude, I think. There are only estimated to be 10^24 or so stars, which is a lot less than 2^256, right. Astronomical is not in the same league.

kloch 5y ago
This is a rare case where “many orders of magnitude” is underselling how unlikely something is. It is estimated there are 10^80 atoms in the observable universe.
boringg 5y ago
To be fair to stars, and for accuracies sake: we don't actually know how many stars are in the universe but we have some broad guesses.
andreareina 5y ago
There are an estimated 10^80 fundamental particles (quarks, electrons, photons... mostly photons) in the observable universe, which is pretty close to 2^256 as these things go. "Cosmological" doesn't have quite the same ring to it though.
- Kye 5y ago
  How about sub-quantum? Maybe there's something smaller than the chance, but nobody alive will be the one to discover it.
bspammer 5y ago
Even if we measure the widest distance (width of the known universe) by the smallest unit (planck length), we only get to 10^61, which is still 16 orders of magnitude away.
- FabHK 5y ago
  oh, but space is 3d, so we're talking 10^183. Just put a computer in every 10^100 of those cubes, and we'll find Satoshi's key in no time.