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That's false, Imperial College's modelling of Sweden actually matched real-world deaths fairly closely. For instance, it assessed Swedish deaths to 31 March 202
by _djo_ 5y ago
That's false, Imperial College's modelling of Sweden actually matched real-world deaths fairly closely. For instance, it assessed Swedish deaths to 31 March 2020 as being 240 [140-440] with zero interventions, or 160 [110-240] with slight interventions. It estimated deaths up to 28 March 2020 as 89 [61-120].
Actual deaths to 28 March 2020 were 92.
What someone else did was to take the Imperial College model and run it against a bunch of populations without properly adjusting the parameters to account for factors like population density, age, etc. They had no real idea how the model worked, but then claimed that it was wrong.
I think it's clear the most of the COVID-19 epidemiology models created around the world were accurate enough in their goal, which was to test the relative effectiveness of interventions and give broad predictions of relative impact. None were perfect, but then no model like this whether epidemiological, economic, or similar is ever going to be 100% accurate.