7 ms·

Will the price of electricity now fall with the plant?

fulafel 5y ago
Yes, but the effect size depends on the size of the electricity market area, which is a function of transmission capacity and agreements. In this case it seems the increased supply will be absorbed by a market area that spans multiple countries, so the price effect should be less than what you might guess from the relatively big local production capacity jump. Also there might be an incentive to expand the transmission capacity for export.
colechristensen 5y ago
It will produce 14% of Finland’s electricity so one would think so, but other fuel prices are very high around the world so maybe not a whole lot.
fuoqi 5y ago
In the very best case it will be connected to the grid in the end of January, so not until then.
- Sharlin 5y ago
  And at 100% capacity only in June, at which point the current price spike is hopefully over…
anttisalmela 5y ago
Definitely. Extra production will tip the scale of imports and exports so that the price in Finland will match most of the time whatever the price is in northern Sweden with its abundance of hydropower. OL3 will also probably lower prices in Estonia and Southern Sweden.
- Maakuth 5y ago
  When it starts producing, that is. According to the commissioning schedule it will be the middle of February until the production reaches meaningful levels: https://www.tvo.fi/en/index/production/plantunits/ol3/ol3forecast.html https://www.tvo.fi/en/index/production/plantunits/ol3/ol3for...
- bullen 5y ago
  The Fenno–Skan 1&2 cables between Olkiluoto and Forsmark in Sweden nuclear plants have a capacity of 1350MW. Finally after decades of sending the Finns our energy it's time for the Finns to fold up their sleeves. Not strange the Swedish prime minister always visits Helsinki first after being elected. It's going to be interesting to see how the relations with the US changes as the US hegemony dissipates. I think Russia is going to be the main trading partner of Scandinavian countries before the decade is over.
  - Zanfa 5y ago
    No way Russia is going to be a major trading partner for Scandinavia as long as Putin (or similar) is in power. They keep pulling political stunts with their exports, making them too unreliable for most businesses. It’s not a coincidence that Russia is only around the 15th largest trading partner for Sweden.
    - bullen 5y ago
      It's all about energy. You cannot print energy. Nobody cares about who is in office when they are freezing or starving. And the US is too far away to even be able to trade with Europe with sail ships.
      - Zanfa 5y ago
        Not sure how this applies, especially to Scandinavia. Sweden has lots of hydro, Norway has hydro, gas & oil. Russia also needs European money, since most of their budget is energy export, that’s why even at the peak of cold war they kept selling gas to Western Europe. Sure, they can use gas to bully smaller countries and manipulate the gas market, but at the end of the day, they’ll keep the pipelines flowing. This is not new either, Russia’s used gas to threaten/pressure their neighbouring countries for 2 decades now. Yet almost all of them have consistently reduced imports/exports with Russia.
        bullen 5y ago
        Hydro cannot power current food transports from Spain or tractors for making food in Sweden. That infrastructure will never be possible at scale because battery energy density is too low. Trains will eventually become the primary transport but they can't replace trucks the last mile. Norwegian oil and gas discovery has peaked, exctraction EROEI is going down VERY fast and that is accelerating. Only Russia has any conventional coal, oil and gas left in the proximity. Reduced? I guess that's why they built Nordstream 2? Why do you think Germany has not started using Nordstream 2 yet?
foota 5y ago
Wholesale prices (at least in the US, not sure internationally) are determined by the highest bid for generation, so this depends on the cost structure of the highest cost generators.

Yes, but the effect size depends on the size of the electricity market area, which is a function of transmission capacity and agreements. In this case it seems the increased supply will be absorbed by a market area that spans multiple countries, so the price effect should be less than what you might guess from the relatively big local production capacity jump. Also there might be an incentive to expand the transmission capacity for export.

colechristensen 5y ago

It will produce 14% of Finland’s electricity so one would think so, but other fuel prices are very high around the world so maybe not a whole lot.

fuoqi 5y ago

In the very best case it will be connected to the grid in the end of January, so not until then.

Sharlin 5y ago
And at 100% capacity only in June, at which point the current price spike is hopefully over…

anttisalmela 5y ago

Definitely. Extra production will tip the scale of imports and exports so that the price in Finland will match most of the time whatever the price is in northern Sweden with its abundance of hydropower. OL3 will also probably lower prices in Estonia and Southern Sweden.

Maakuth 5y ago
When it starts producing, that is. According to the commissioning schedule it will be the middle of February until the production reaches meaningful levels: https://www.tvo.fi/en/index/production/plantunits/ol3/ol3forecast.html https://www.tvo.fi/en/index/production/plantunits/ol3/ol3for...
bullen 5y ago
The Fenno–Skan 1&2 cables between Olkiluoto and Forsmark in Sweden nuclear plants have a capacity of 1350MW. Finally after decades of sending the Finns our energy it's time for the Finns to fold up their sleeves. Not strange the Swedish prime minister always visits Helsinki first after being elected. It's going to be interesting to see how the relations with the US changes as the US hegemony dissipates. I think Russia is going to be the main trading partner of Scandinavian countries before the decade is over.
- Zanfa 5y ago
  No way Russia is going to be a major trading partner for Scandinavia as long as Putin (or similar) is in power. They keep pulling political stunts with their exports, making them too unreliable for most businesses. It’s not a coincidence that Russia is only around the 15th largest trading partner for Sweden.
  - bullen 5y ago
    It's all about energy. You cannot print energy. Nobody cares about who is in office when they are freezing or starving. And the US is too far away to even be able to trade with Europe with sail ships.
    - Zanfa 5y ago
      Not sure how this applies, especially to Scandinavia. Sweden has lots of hydro, Norway has hydro, gas & oil. Russia also needs European money, since most of their budget is energy export, that’s why even at the peak of cold war they kept selling gas to Western Europe. Sure, they can use gas to bully smaller countries and manipulate the gas market, but at the end of the day, they’ll keep the pipelines flowing. This is not new either, Russia’s used gas to threaten/pressure their neighbouring countries for 2 decades now. Yet almost all of them have consistently reduced imports/exports with Russia.
      - bullen 5y ago
        Hydro cannot power current food transports from Spain or tractors for making food in Sweden. That infrastructure will never be possible at scale because battery energy density is too low. Trains will eventually become the primary transport but they can't replace trucks the last mile. Norwegian oil and gas discovery has peaked, exctraction EROEI is going down VERY fast and that is accelerating. Only Russia has any conventional coal, oil and gas left in the proximity. Reduced? I guess that's why they built Nordstream 2? Why do you think Germany has not started using Nordstream 2 yet?

foota 5y ago

Wholesale prices (at least in the US, not sure internationally) are determined by the highest bid for generation, so this depends on the cost structure of the highest cost generators.