5 ms·

There is a difference in mortality between everyone going to get it during the next five years and everyone getting it during the next five months.

CryptoPunk 5y ago
Only to the extent that ICU shortages cause additional deaths. If the healthcare system can mostly handle the surge in hospitalizations, then it wouldn't make a difference. Another factor to consider is that every one getting infected quickly, and partial herd immunity being established sooner, could expedite the repeal of COVID control measures, and the dissipitation of the climate of fear, which are both incurring significant health, quality of life, and economic costs. The World Bank estimates that COVID and its associated policies has already pushed 97 million people into extreme poverty. UNICEF says "Schools still closed for nearly 77 million students 18 months into pandemic": https://www.unicef.org/lac/en/press-releases/schools-still-closed-for-nearly-77-million-students-18-months-into-pandemic-unicef https://www.unicef.org/lac/en/press-releases/schools-still-c... In the US, fentanyl overdoses during the pandemic have surged to become the leading cause of death for the 18 - 45 demographic: https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/fentanyl-overdoses-surge-become-leading-cause-of-death-in-americans-aged-18-45-families-against-james-rauh-drug https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/fentanyl-... Scientists have long known that social isolation is deadly, and if there's one thing that COVID control policies increase, it's social isolation.
- actually_a_dog 5y ago
  You're ignoring all the cases of PTSD and people leaving healthcare professions in all this. 18% of US healthcare workers have already left the field. [0] Nearly 1/4 of healthcare workers show signs of PTSD. [1] I don't know what the overlap is, but these are serious things regardless. --- [0]: https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/workforce/about-1-in-5-healthcare-workers-have-left-medicine-since-the-pandemic-began-here-s-why.html https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/workforce/about-1-in-5... [1]: https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/burnout-alcohol-ptsd-health-workers-are-suffering/ https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/burnout-alcohol-ptsd-...
  - CryptoPunk 5y ago
    This is yet another factor to consider yes. But this pales in comparison to the number of people whose mental health is being adversely affected by the lockdowns/social-isolation/climate-of-fear. Look at scope of the global mental health epidemic: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/23/pandemic-hits-mental-health-of-women-and-young-people-hardest-survey-finds https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/23/pandemic-hits-...
    - actually_a_dog 5y ago
      I disagree. The fact that this is affecting healthcare workers makes it worse, because it reduces our ability to deal with the virus in the first place.
      - CryptoPunk 5y ago
        Any back of the envelope calculations showing how you reach the conclusion that this is worse than the harm the COVID control measures are doing?
        actually_a_dog 5y ago
        How much harm do you think operating with 20% fewer healthcare personnel would cause? Put me down for that much. Keep in mind, this isn't just 20% fewer people to deal with COVID, it's 20% fewer people to deal with, well, everything, for years to come. I'm sure someone's done the calculations on what the consequences of a decimated healthcare system are, if you want to go look for them.
        CryptoPunk 5y ago
        I don't know, how much harm do you estimate that causes? Obviously it's harmful, but what we need to do is compare it to the enormous harm of lockdowns and other COVID control postures, some of which I've documented.
- adrianN 5y ago
  Another factor to consider is that unusual strain on the healthcare system lowers the average level of care. For example right now, most planable surgeries are postponed. This is not without risk either.

CryptoPunk 5y ago

Only to the extent that ICU shortages cause additional deaths. If the healthcare system can mostly handle the surge in hospitalizations, then it wouldn't make a difference. Another factor to consider is that every one getting infected quickly, and partial herd immunity being established sooner, could expedite the repeal of COVID control measures, and the dissipitation of the climate of fear, which are both incurring significant health, quality of life, and economic costs. The World Bank estimates that COVID and its associated policies has already pushed 97 million people into extreme poverty. UNICEF says "Schools still closed for nearly 77 million students 18 months into pandemic": https://www.unicef.org/lac/en/press-releases/schools-still-closed-for-nearly-77-million-students-18-months-into-pandemic-unicef https://www.unicef.org/lac/en/press-releases/schools-still-c... In the US, fentanyl overdoses during the pandemic have surged to become the leading cause of death for the 18 - 45 demographic: https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/fentanyl-overdoses-surge-become-leading-cause-of-death-in-americans-aged-18-45-families-against-james-rauh-drug https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/fentanyl-... Scientists have long known that social isolation is deadly, and if there's one thing that COVID control policies increase, it's social isolation.

actually_a_dog 5y ago
You're ignoring all the cases of PTSD and people leaving healthcare professions in all this. 18% of US healthcare workers have already left the field. [0] Nearly 1/4 of healthcare workers show signs of PTSD. [1] I don't know what the overlap is, but these are serious things regardless. --- [0]: https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/workforce/about-1-in-5-healthcare-workers-have-left-medicine-since-the-pandemic-began-here-s-why.html https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/workforce/about-1-in-5... [1]: https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/burnout-alcohol-ptsd-health-workers-are-suffering/ https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/burnout-alcohol-ptsd-...
- CryptoPunk 5y ago
  This is yet another factor to consider yes. But this pales in comparison to the number of people whose mental health is being adversely affected by the lockdowns/social-isolation/climate-of-fear. Look at scope of the global mental health epidemic: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/23/pandemic-hits-mental-health-of-women-and-young-people-hardest-survey-finds https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/23/pandemic-hits-...
  - actually_a_dog 5y ago
    I disagree. The fact that this is affecting healthcare workers makes it worse, because it reduces our ability to deal with the virus in the first place.
    - CryptoPunk 5y ago
      Any back of the envelope calculations showing how you reach the conclusion that this is worse than the harm the COVID control measures are doing?
      - actually_a_dog 5y ago
        How much harm do you think operating with 20% fewer healthcare personnel would cause? Put me down for that much. Keep in mind, this isn't just 20% fewer people to deal with COVID, it's 20% fewer people to deal with, well, everything, for years to come. I'm sure someone's done the calculations on what the consequences of a decimated healthcare system are, if you want to go look for them.
        CryptoPunk 5y ago
        I don't know, how much harm do you estimate that causes? Obviously it's harmful, but what we need to do is compare it to the enormous harm of lockdowns and other COVID control postures, some of which I've documented.
adrianN 5y ago
Another factor to consider is that unusual strain on the healthcare system lowers the average level of care. For example right now, most planable surgeries are postponed. This is not without risk either.