10 ms·

I am not a doctor, but the numbers for this varient seem encouraging. Because hospitalizations, and deaths, trend later than infections, definitive conclusions

I am not a doctor, but the numbers for this varient seem encouraging. Because hospitalizations, and deaths, trend later than infections, definitive conclusions are still some weeks away. However all the data coming out of South Africa is encouraging. First, South Africa has about 25% vaccination coverage. With coverage skewing older. Infections are up [1],but hospitalizations are flat, and so are deaths. It's likely that the infection rate is grossly under-reported, especially among those without symptoms, as tests are (relatively) expensive. Annecdodally reasonably high percentages of asymptomatic infection is being detected in people being "randomly" tested (eg tested for travel and other-hospital reasons) It is also crowding out delta, which is still present, but decreasing. All in all travel bans may have been counter-productive (as well as ineffective) allowing time for more delta infections, and ultimately more deaths to take place. It's still too early to be definitive, but this may indeed be the varient we all need - one which is super contagious, but also super weak, priming immune systems against earlier varient. IF (and its a very big IF) this varient is non-fatal, then the faster and wider it spreads the better. We need to super-nova this thing, not a red dwarf. [1] https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/south-africa/ https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m...

amildie 5y ago
Encouraging why? A month from now a new vaccine-escaping variant could emerge from some squirrel in Haiti that's a billion times more transmissible than Omicron and a thousand times more lethal than Delta. The fact that this particular variant isn't an absolute catastrophe doesn't mean that a new devastating variant isn't around the corner.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- wussboy 5y ago
  But that has never not been true in every time and in every place. Why get existential dread about it now?
  - sk5t 5y ago
    Clearly we should spend all our energy, always, worrying about the near-uncontrollable realms of bacterial and viral evolution.
- ianai 5y ago
  First death from omicron in US wasn’t vaccinated per breaking news just now.
  - stjohnswarts 5y ago
    Lots of people died this week from flu and the common cold as well, so let's not freak out just yet.
- bandana 5y ago
  I've heard that the Pangolin variant could be 10x more potent than the Haitian squirrel variant. Why is everyone still going out, lock us down now !
zapataband1 5y ago
- NicoJuicy 5y ago
  Research has shown that it spreads a lot less in the lungs than in the nose, which could be an indicator of what's happening with the severity (= less) and why it spreads much easier. https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-c... If you call him irresponsible, at least back it up with numbers why. He's got a similar estimate of what i think is happening. We're all grown-ups here, there's no harm in interpreting the current situation. Anyone can come by and refute his assumption to improve discussion. As an example: @bruce511: To me, the core question is how much the cases in south Africa can be compared to other countries, because of high infection rate during previous waves. There's still a reasonable risk if previous infection with delta protects better than vaccines. And for that, we will have to wait :( I'm hopeful though.
  - acdha 5y ago
    Speaking of backing things up, research has not shown that “it spreads a lot less in the lungs than in the nose”. The single study you’re referring to was measuring growth in tissue cultures, so we don’t know how transferable those numbers will be in vivo. I’m hoping for the best, too, but let’s not continue the tradition we’ve had during the pandemic of saying “you’re worrying too much” and being wrong. Today’s Science on this: https://www.science.org/content/article/early-lab-studies-hint-omicron-may-be-milder-most-scientists-reserve-judgment https://www.science.org/content/article/early-lab-studies-hi...
    - walterbell 5y ago
      > we don’t know how transferable those numbers With a growing number of real-life cases, hopefully there are multiple studies already in progress.
      - acdha 5y ago
fragmede 5y ago
There's not yet any sign that it's less dangerous than delta, and a more infectious but equally lethal virus is going to kill a ton more people owing to the higher infection rate, especially among the unvaxxed or unboosted. It's a bit counter-intuitive, and we'll see what the real-world numbers bear out if you don't believe the models, but immunologist twitter's on the grim side right now.
- School-Cotton 5y ago
  > and a more infectious but equally lethal virus is going to kill a ton more people owing to the higher infection rate Not necessarily, if the less infectious one was already infectious enough that nearly everyone was going to get it eventually.
  - adrianN 5y ago
    There is a difference in mortality between everyone going to get it during the next five years and everyone getting it during the next five months.
    - CryptoPunk 5y ago
      Only to the extent that ICU shortages cause additional deaths. If the healthcare system can mostly handle the surge in hospitalizations, then it wouldn't make a difference. Another factor to consider is that every one getting infected quickly, and partial herd immunity being established sooner, could expedite the repeal of COVID control measures, and the dissipitation of the climate of fear, which are both incurring significant health, quality of life, and economic costs. The World Bank estimates that COVID and its associated policies has already pushed 97 million people into extreme poverty. UNICEF says "Schools still closed for nearly 77 million students 18 months into pandemic": https://www.unicef.org/lac/en/press-releases/schools-still-closed-for-nearly-77-million-students-18-months-into-pandemic-unicef https://www.unicef.org/lac/en/press-releases/schools-still-c... In the US, fentanyl overdoses during the pandemic have surged to become the leading cause of death for the 18 - 45 demographic: https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/fentanyl-overdoses-surge-become-leading-cause-of-death-in-americans-aged-18-45-families-against-james-rauh-drug https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/fentanyl-... Scientists have long known that social isolation is deadly, and if there's one thing that COVID control policies increase, it's social isolation.
throwhauser 5y ago
> We need to super-nova this thing Is there a precedent for "us" doing this? Surely some pandemics have "super-nova'ed" themselves, but having "us" encourage faster and wider spread as policy seems risky and unusual.
- Consultant32452 5y ago
  People used to throw chicken pox parties to infect their kids at a young age because, while there is some risk to the young, it's much more dangerous to get chicken pox as an older person. Do you know any other diseases where there's virtually no risk to young children but very high risk to the elderly?
  - nostrademons 5y ago
    Lots of them - polio, tuberculosis, chickenpox, influenza, ebola, typhus, salmonella, etc. There's a recent paper on this here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-00668-y https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-00668-y
    - Consultant32452 5y ago
      You forgot covid.
- bruce511 5y ago
  I'm not going to go so far as to say we throw Covid infection parties :) But things like travel restrictions, should (and in some cases are) being lifted. I appreciate the need for govts to be seen to do something "new variant? quick, lock the borders..", but as data emerges that this is "the one to get" there's no need to inhibit the economy in the name of public health, when that inhibition leads to a worse, not better outcome. Our best case scenario right now is that a) the virus spreads really fast, and b) it's not lethal (or at least no more lethal than anything else in life.) Ultimately we all need to build up immunity from this thing - whether that's via vaccines or contractions everyone is free to take their pick. but 5 years from now we'll all have anti-bodies for it one way or the other...
svnpenn 5y ago
- earthling51 5y ago
  They might struggle with dyslexia, like me. I am basically dependent on the computer to write. I don't use spell check, because I know how everything is spelled, but I need to constantly look back at the screen because it comes out of my fingers differently.
nostrademons 5y ago
Hospitalizations are not flat. They're doubling roughly every week [1], and are at close to 50% of their Delta peak [2]. [1] https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/NICD-COVID-19-Daily-Sentinel-Hospital-Surveillance-Report-National-20211219.pdf https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/NICD-COVID... [2] https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-update-dec-17 https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-updat...
- runeks 5y ago
  The first link seems to show a flattening. Where are you seeing a doubling per week here?
  - nostrademons 5y ago
    Ignore the last bar (2021.50) - there are reporting delays, and the total goes up as more data comes in. The following day [1] shows it at 6887, +1292 for the day, and the day after [2] shows it at 8019. This is good practice for any very recent (< 1 week old) data - expect there to be reporting delays, and that the most recent totals will be updated in the future. If you look at the bars for 2021.46 - 2021.49, there's a clear exponential trend with a doubling time of about a week, going from 715 to 1446 to 3994 to 7558. [1] https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Datcov19_National_Export-20211220.pdf https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Datcov19_N... [2] https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Datcov19_National_Export-20211221.pdf https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Datcov19_N...
sweezyjeezy 5y ago
Comparing the relative effect on a low vaccination coverage country with a high one seems slightly irrelevant no? i.e. delta variant is much less of a hospital burden in a high vaccinated country, therefore the relative danger of omicron could be much higher. If omicron was truly 'super weak' - wouldn't you expect to see the SA numbers go down?
j2bax 5y ago
I’ll continue to lean more cautious than optimistic with a variant that has the potential to start re-infecting our mostly vaccinated elderly populations at alarming rates. Our hospitals and medical staff need a reprieve as they already have a concerning backlog of non Covid related treatments.

amildie 5y ago

Encouraging why? A month from now a new vaccine-escaping variant could emerge from some squirrel in Haiti that's a billion times more transmissible than Omicron and a thousand times more lethal than Delta. The fact that this particular variant isn't an absolute catastrophe doesn't mean that a new devastating variant isn't around the corner.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
wussboy 5y ago
But that has never not been true in every time and in every place. Why get existential dread about it now?
- sk5t 5y ago
  Clearly we should spend all our energy, always, worrying about the near-uncontrollable realms of bacterial and viral evolution.
ianai 5y ago
First death from omicron in US wasn’t vaccinated per breaking news just now.
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  Lots of people died this week from flu and the common cold as well, so let's not freak out just yet.
bandana 5y ago
I've heard that the Pangolin variant could be 10x more potent than the Haitian squirrel variant. Why is everyone still going out, lock us down now !

zapataband1 5y ago

NicoJuicy 5y ago
Research has shown that it spreads a lot less in the lungs than in the nose, which could be an indicator of what's happening with the severity (= less) and why it spreads much easier. https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-c... If you call him irresponsible, at least back it up with numbers why. He's got a similar estimate of what i think is happening. We're all grown-ups here, there's no harm in interpreting the current situation. Anyone can come by and refute his assumption to improve discussion. As an example: @bruce511: To me, the core question is how much the cases in south Africa can be compared to other countries, because of high infection rate during previous waves. There's still a reasonable risk if previous infection with delta protects better than vaccines. And for that, we will have to wait :( I'm hopeful though.
- acdha 5y ago
  Speaking of backing things up, research has not shown that “it spreads a lot less in the lungs than in the nose”. The single study you’re referring to was measuring growth in tissue cultures, so we don’t know how transferable those numbers will be in vivo. I’m hoping for the best, too, but let’s not continue the tradition we’ve had during the pandemic of saying “you’re worrying too much” and being wrong. Today’s Science on this: https://www.science.org/content/article/early-lab-studies-hint-omicron-may-be-milder-most-scientists-reserve-judgment https://www.science.org/content/article/early-lab-studies-hi...
  - walterbell 5y ago
    > we don’t know how transferable those numbers With a growing number of real-life cases, hopefully there are multiple studies already in progress.
    - acdha 5y ago

fragmede 5y ago

There's not yet any sign that it's less dangerous than delta, and a more infectious but equally lethal virus is going to kill a ton more people owing to the higher infection rate, especially among the unvaxxed or unboosted. It's a bit counter-intuitive, and we'll see what the real-world numbers bear out if you don't believe the models, but immunologist twitter's on the grim side right now.

School-Cotton 5y ago
> and a more infectious but equally lethal virus is going to kill a ton more people owing to the higher infection rate Not necessarily, if the less infectious one was already infectious enough that nearly everyone was going to get it eventually.
- adrianN 5y ago
  There is a difference in mortality between everyone going to get it during the next five years and everyone getting it during the next five months.
  - CryptoPunk 5y ago
    Only to the extent that ICU shortages cause additional deaths. If the healthcare system can mostly handle the surge in hospitalizations, then it wouldn't make a difference. Another factor to consider is that every one getting infected quickly, and partial herd immunity being established sooner, could expedite the repeal of COVID control measures, and the dissipitation of the climate of fear, which are both incurring significant health, quality of life, and economic costs. The World Bank estimates that COVID and its associated policies has already pushed 97 million people into extreme poverty. UNICEF says "Schools still closed for nearly 77 million students 18 months into pandemic": https://www.unicef.org/lac/en/press-releases/schools-still-closed-for-nearly-77-million-students-18-months-into-pandemic-unicef https://www.unicef.org/lac/en/press-releases/schools-still-c... In the US, fentanyl overdoses during the pandemic have surged to become the leading cause of death for the 18 - 45 demographic: https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/fentanyl-overdoses-surge-become-leading-cause-of-death-in-americans-aged-18-45-families-against-james-rauh-drug https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/fentanyl-... Scientists have long known that social isolation is deadly, and if there's one thing that COVID control policies increase, it's social isolation.

throwhauser 5y ago

> We need to super-nova this thing Is there a precedent for "us" doing this? Surely some pandemics have "super-nova'ed" themselves, but having "us" encourage faster and wider spread as policy seems risky and unusual.

Consultant32452 5y ago
People used to throw chicken pox parties to infect their kids at a young age because, while there is some risk to the young, it's much more dangerous to get chicken pox as an older person. Do you know any other diseases where there's virtually no risk to young children but very high risk to the elderly?
- nostrademons 5y ago
  Lots of them - polio, tuberculosis, chickenpox, influenza, ebola, typhus, salmonella, etc. There's a recent paper on this here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-00668-y https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-00668-y
  - Consultant32452 5y ago
    You forgot covid.
bruce511 5y ago
I'm not going to go so far as to say we throw Covid infection parties :) But things like travel restrictions, should (and in some cases are) being lifted. I appreciate the need for govts to be seen to do something "new variant? quick, lock the borders..", but as data emerges that this is "the one to get" there's no need to inhibit the economy in the name of public health, when that inhibition leads to a worse, not better outcome. Our best case scenario right now is that a) the virus spreads really fast, and b) it's not lethal (or at least no more lethal than anything else in life.) Ultimately we all need to build up immunity from this thing - whether that's via vaccines or contractions everyone is free to take their pick. but 5 years from now we'll all have anti-bodies for it one way or the other...

svnpenn 5y ago

earthling51 5y ago
They might struggle with dyslexia, like me. I am basically dependent on the computer to write. I don't use spell check, because I know how everything is spelled, but I need to constantly look back at the screen because it comes out of my fingers differently.

nostrademons 5y ago

Hospitalizations are not flat. They're doubling roughly every week [1], and are at close to 50% of their Delta peak [2]. [1] https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/NICD-COVID-19-Daily-Sentinel-Hospital-Surveillance-Report-National-20211219.pdf https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/NICD-COVID... [2] https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-update-dec-17 https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-updat...

runeks 5y ago
The first link seems to show a flattening. Where are you seeing a doubling per week here?
- nostrademons 5y ago
  Ignore the last bar (2021.50) - there are reporting delays, and the total goes up as more data comes in. The following day [1] shows it at 6887, +1292 for the day, and the day after [2] shows it at 8019. This is good practice for any very recent (< 1 week old) data - expect there to be reporting delays, and that the most recent totals will be updated in the future. If you look at the bars for 2021.46 - 2021.49, there's a clear exponential trend with a doubling time of about a week, going from 715 to 1446 to 3994 to 7558. [1] https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Datcov19_National_Export-20211220.pdf https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Datcov19_N... [2] https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Datcov19_National_Export-20211221.pdf https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Datcov19_N...

sweezyjeezy 5y ago

Comparing the relative effect on a low vaccination coverage country with a high one seems slightly irrelevant no? i.e. delta variant is much less of a hospital burden in a high vaccinated country, therefore the relative danger of omicron could be much higher. If omicron was truly 'super weak' - wouldn't you expect to see the SA numbers go down?

j2bax 5y ago

I’ll continue to lean more cautious than optimistic with a variant that has the potential to start re-infecting our mostly vaccinated elderly populations at alarming rates. Our hospitals and medical staff need a reprieve as they already have a concerning backlog of non Covid related treatments.