4 ms·

google "new york coronavirus" and look at the massive past 10 day spike in the new cases chart. This isn't going to end well.

walterbell 5y ago
New case count arrivals should be normalized against sampling rate, there's been a massive increase in NYC test collection capacity via mobile vans and testing tents on sidewalks.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  Sampling rate needs to be normalized against percent-positivity. NYC has gone from 3% positive to 8% positive, suggesting that NYC is missing half of its results compared to before. Remember: the flu is among us. A lot of these tests should be returning negative because the flu is spreading like normal.
- giarc 5y ago
  https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#testing https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#testi... Positivity rate reaching 8%. 3 day lag.
- parkingrift 5y ago
  Anecdotal, obviously, but I haven’t seen any new testing sites in Manhattan. The vans and tents have been there for months. The only change I’ve noticed is the lines. I walk past two tent sites on my way to the gym every single day. Been there for months now. I’ve never seen any significant queue until this week.
  - walterbell 5y ago
    There have been vans and big tents (10x10' approx) for months, in stable locations. More of the little booths (4x4' approx) appeared in recent weeks, in additional locations.
    - parkingrift 5y ago
      Not anywhere I routinely travel in Manhattan. Sidewalk booths have been there since June or July.
      - walterbell 5y ago
        Yes, and now they are in additional high-traffic midtown locations, where there was previously no booth. Same principle as opening more supermarket checkout lanes: if one booth has a gigantic line, add another booth at the opposite end of the block -> two shorter lines that don't block sidewalk traffic.
- ipqk 5y ago
  There may be an increase in collection, but it's backlogged by actual labs doing the work. If you look at the last few days, there's been no real increase in test numbers. We've really hit our limit in daily testing, but positivity keeps going up.
- walrus01 5y ago
  > New case count arrivals should be normalized against sampling rate, there's been a massive increase in NYC test collection capacity via mobile vans and testing tents on sidewalks. those have been around since spring 2021 everywhere in the city, the amount of vans and testing tents is not higher now than it was mid summer.
  - walterbell 5y ago
    Looks like they were cut back in Nov, then increased. Dec 16, https://www.thecity.nyc/health/2021/12/16/22840510/nyc-shut-down-covid-testing-facilities-omicron-surge https://www.thecity.nyc/health/2021/12/16/22840510/nyc-shut-... > The number of city-operated fixed-location testing centers listed dropped dramatically in the middle of November from 54 to 34, with 31 operating as of Wednesday, an analysis by THE CITY of city Health + Hospital system data shows ... State health stats show upwards of 146,000 tests administered Wednesday, compared with about 106,000 on Dec. 1. Dec 19, https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-bill-de-blasio-coronavirus-omicron-new-york-city-20211219-nnocsqic4jaydlv4w3qi7f335u-story.html https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections... > additional testing sites will be opened after Tuesday, describing the process as “kind of a rolling-thunder situation.” The number of mobile testing sites will grow to 93 by Tuesday, with more to come after that, officials said. Dec 20, https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-covid-omicron-increase-testing-sites-de-blasio-20211220-szmx3n5ulbde5erzaedzdoffd4-story.html https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections... > Nearly two dozen new COVID testing sites will be added this week to New York City’s arsenal ... By this week’s end, the city plans to have a total of 112 of its own testing sites up and running — up 23 from the 89 sites currently available.
stjohnswarts 5y ago
That's just one variable, are hospitalization rates going up at a similar rate? That's the critical and undeniably most important number for setting policy.

walterbell 5y ago

New case count arrivals should be normalized against sampling rate, there's been a massive increase in NYC test collection capacity via mobile vans and testing tents on sidewalks.

dragontamer 5y ago
Sampling rate needs to be normalized against percent-positivity. NYC has gone from 3% positive to 8% positive, suggesting that NYC is missing half of its results compared to before. Remember: the flu is among us. A lot of these tests should be returning negative because the flu is spreading like normal.
giarc 5y ago
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#testing https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#testi... Positivity rate reaching 8%. 3 day lag.
parkingrift 5y ago
Anecdotal, obviously, but I haven’t seen any new testing sites in Manhattan. The vans and tents have been there for months. The only change I’ve noticed is the lines. I walk past two tent sites on my way to the gym every single day. Been there for months now. I’ve never seen any significant queue until this week.
- walterbell 5y ago
  There have been vans and big tents (10x10' approx) for months, in stable locations. More of the little booths (4x4' approx) appeared in recent weeks, in additional locations.
  - parkingrift 5y ago
    Not anywhere I routinely travel in Manhattan. Sidewalk booths have been there since June or July.
    - walterbell 5y ago
      Yes, and now they are in additional high-traffic midtown locations, where there was previously no booth. Same principle as opening more supermarket checkout lanes: if one booth has a gigantic line, add another booth at the opposite end of the block -> two shorter lines that don't block sidewalk traffic.
ipqk 5y ago
There may be an increase in collection, but it's backlogged by actual labs doing the work. If you look at the last few days, there's been no real increase in test numbers. We've really hit our limit in daily testing, but positivity keeps going up.
walrus01 5y ago
> New case count arrivals should be normalized against sampling rate, there's been a massive increase in NYC test collection capacity via mobile vans and testing tents on sidewalks. those have been around since spring 2021 everywhere in the city, the amount of vans and testing tents is not higher now than it was mid summer.
- walterbell 5y ago
  Looks like they were cut back in Nov, then increased. Dec 16, https://www.thecity.nyc/health/2021/12/16/22840510/nyc-shut-down-covid-testing-facilities-omicron-surge https://www.thecity.nyc/health/2021/12/16/22840510/nyc-shut-... > The number of city-operated fixed-location testing centers listed dropped dramatically in the middle of November from 54 to 34, with 31 operating as of Wednesday, an analysis by THE CITY of city Health + Hospital system data shows ... State health stats show upwards of 146,000 tests administered Wednesday, compared with about 106,000 on Dec. 1. Dec 19, https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-bill-de-blasio-coronavirus-omicron-new-york-city-20211219-nnocsqic4jaydlv4w3qi7f335u-story.html https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections... > additional testing sites will be opened after Tuesday, describing the process as “kind of a rolling-thunder situation.” The number of mobile testing sites will grow to 93 by Tuesday, with more to come after that, officials said. Dec 20, https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-covid-omicron-increase-testing-sites-de-blasio-20211220-szmx3n5ulbde5erzaedzdoffd4-story.html https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections... > Nearly two dozen new COVID testing sites will be added this week to New York City’s arsenal ... By this week’s end, the city plans to have a total of 112 of its own testing sites up and running — up 23 from the 89 sites currently available.

stjohnswarts 5y ago

That's just one variable, are hospitalization rates going up at a similar rate? That's the critical and undeniably most important number for setting policy.