Call me cynical, but if you were a serious analyst who actually believed there was a reasonable chance of a civil war, your most responsible and effective move

Call me cynical, but if you were a serious analyst who actually believed there was a reasonable chance of a civil war, your most responsible and effective move would not be to write a book and promote it. Not even in 1982, but certainly not in 2022. On the other hand, if you wanted to sell books, a good way to do it would be to tap into the current political tension by making a massive, attention-grabbing claim that can't be disproved for several years. Now, that would be hugely irresponsible, but I bet somebody out there would do it.