5 ms·

Ha. Though my guess is, once self-driving is reliable enough to do that, the economics of car ownership are going to flip completely. It won't make sense anymor

Ha. Though my guess is, once self-driving is reliable enough to do that, the economics of car ownership are going to flip completely. It won't make sense anymore to have a car that spends most of its time sitting unused in your garage.

lotsofpulp 5y ago
It depends how easily they can be cleaned of others’ odors and messes, and how often they need to get cleaned. Presumably if the rate of mess is low enough and there are extra cars, you would just request a new one. Then they punish the person who left the mess or odor, disincentivizing them from doing it again. Probably need cameras monitoring the inside of the car.
- ghaff 5y ago
  It's not so much messes. Rentals, including short-term ones, are a thing today. But rather there's a lot of value to many people to have the car that they want when they want it, leaving certain belongings in the car, having the car equipped for their purposes whether child seats or roof racks, etc. While I honestly don't expect door to door self driving in most places for decades, a lot of people who don't use cars much probably underestimate the degree to which many people customize their vehicles. And even if they sit a lot of the time, most of the cost is often in miles, not time.
- db65edfc7996 5y ago
  In a world where car ownership is limited, I can imagine that the car interiors would be changed drastically. Something like a subway car with hard plastic seats and easily sanitized surfaces.
romwell 5y ago
Imagine, now, that self-driving combined with Uber pool, so that people who need to get from and to the same destinations at the same time (as is typical for commutes) would be able to share the ride. Imagine then making those vehicles larger to enable not only a decrease in traffic, but an increase in housing density, local infrastructure in walking distance, and economic growth. Imagine if we then realized we could charge that elongated car as it's driving if we put electric lines above streets. Oh, and why not increase rolling efficiency while we're at that, and make the task of self-driving simpler by embedding signaling infrastructure into the road itself. You just imagined buses, trolley buses, and streetcars respectively. Which is what makes the most sense, and will continue making the most sense for vehicles that don't sit in your garage most of the time. There's more to car ownership than being able to get from A to B in principle. Once you add immediate availability, individual vehicle preferences, having your stuff in the car already, the ability to keep your stuff there once you arrive at your destination, never having to think about small, but normal usage damage (especially if you have kids), or, conversely, having the vehicle just as clean as you want it... ...you will see that garages aren't going anywhere any time soon, self-driving cars or not. And that we'd be wise to develop actual public transport infrastructure for the people who really do only care about getting from A to B, with some acceptable wait time. It's a win-win for everyone. My pessimistic prognosis is that the development of the self-driving car will make the taxis slightly cheaper, but instead of paying your Uber driver, you're going to be paying engineers, maintenance, and cleaning staff.
- ljm 5y ago
  Imagine how different the US would be if it was Big Public Transportation that lobbied to have towns and cities designed around them, rather than the car industry. Walking, cycling, buses, trams, trains, etc. etc. You'd still have cars but they wouldn't be a basic need for survival like they're often treated as, because you can't get anywhere without one. Because it was basically 100 years ago when the car industry sought to dismantle that infrastructure, and succeeded.
  - asdff 5y ago
    To be fair it wasn't some conspiracy. The reason why people began using the car 100 years ago was that the car was becoming widely available and it was super convenient even in the days when roads were caked in horse manure. Even in the peak of the streetcar era, the private car was the best way around town, and as more people bought more cars, it continued to dominate as the streetcar would be bogged down in traffic just like a bus today. Intercity passenger rail also didn't stand much of a chance against the convenience and speed of the jet age.
    - ljm 5y ago
      There was _a_ conspiracy, or at least Wikipedia refers to it as such: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_consp.... That is to say, there's enough there to suggest that this wasn't the free market answering solely to consumer demand.
      - TMWNN 5y ago
        The article explains why there actually was no conspiracy.[1] [1] No, kids, Who Framed Roger Rabbit? isn't real history
        romwell 5y ago
        I mean, is it really a conspiracy if open and unashamed corruption was the modus operandi at the time. When there's funding for highways but not rails, the results are unsurprising. The benefits of public transit are a positive externality[1][2]. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality#Positive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality#Positive [2]Real history is way worse
MisterBastahrd 5y ago
That is only going to happen for most people if the economics of car rentals are VEEEEEERRY reasonable. I am not willing to wait 10 minutes for an available vehicle every time I need to go somewhere. People who are dreaming of a day of full automation need to take this into account, because while I don't know how long the average trip by car is, I suspect that it's somewhere in the 15-20 minute range, which is impossible to match even with a fully autonomous driving scheme that can ignore things like stop lights and stop signs.
- fallingknife 5y ago
  Uber now is rarely 10 minutes or more. Usually <5 if you're in a major city.
  - ctdonath 5y ago
    Easily >45 minutes if not.
  - MisterBastahrd 5y ago
    I live in a suburb of Dallas and Uber is always 30 minutes plus.
HeyLaughingBoy 5y ago
People keep saying this, but I don't get it. The majority of your possessions spend most of their time sitting idle. Even if I just look at the higher value ones: my riding lawnmower gets used for a couple of hours every few weeks, my garden tractor/snowblower even less frequently, then I've got a trailer, a truck, miscellaneous tools, etc. I could rent every single one of these, but don't because the economics don't make sense, and the use model would otherwise lead to a lot of inconvenience.
- tomc1985 5y ago
  It's the same crap preached by the cloud infrastructure folks trying to get everyone on a rental/sharecropping model. Ah those sweet rents
- angry-sw-dev 5y ago
  The lynchpin in these arguments is that you'll somehow be able to summon a vehicle on a moments notice and all your usage will still be less expensive than personal ownership. The cost will be low because no humans are involved... Except it didn't work for ZipCar or the rental agencies that have added hourly options -- sure it's not bad, but is it really pushing people out of car ownership? No... Ride sharing similarly hasn't worked to push people out of car ownership either -- it's just killed traditional taxi services by compensating drivers less and eliminating the flag down monopoly some cities have maintained (a taxi medallion in Boston/NYC used to be worth hundreds of thousands... no one wants them now) All these share options work for low use scenarios like the city dweller who wants a weekly trip to a shopping center, but for the daily commuter/driver it won't ever make sense... and it'll never make sense for those that need to keep things in their car like child seats, diapers, a walker, tools, etc... Bike/Scooter shares haven't eliminated personal ownership either because of the scarcity issue at peak times.
  - spicybright 5y ago
    Not to mention, do you really trust 20 strangers to treat your possessions as well as you do? Have these people never been in the back of a taxi, or any kind of public transit?
tomc1985 5y ago
Every body says this but how many of us are going to want randos treating our vehicles like shit because its a rental?
- earleybird 5y ago
  Vehicles are more than a transport service; they are also, for example, a place to keep your stuff while you run errands.

lotsofpulp 5y ago

It depends how easily they can be cleaned of others’ odors and messes, and how often they need to get cleaned. Presumably if the rate of mess is low enough and there are extra cars, you would just request a new one. Then they punish the person who left the mess or odor, disincentivizing them from doing it again. Probably need cameras monitoring the inside of the car.

ghaff 5y ago
It's not so much messes. Rentals, including short-term ones, are a thing today. But rather there's a lot of value to many people to have the car that they want when they want it, leaving certain belongings in the car, having the car equipped for their purposes whether child seats or roof racks, etc. While I honestly don't expect door to door self driving in most places for decades, a lot of people who don't use cars much probably underestimate the degree to which many people customize their vehicles. And even if they sit a lot of the time, most of the cost is often in miles, not time.
db65edfc7996 5y ago
In a world where car ownership is limited, I can imagine that the car interiors would be changed drastically. Something like a subway car with hard plastic seats and easily sanitized surfaces.

romwell 5y ago

Imagine, now, that self-driving combined with Uber pool, so that people who need to get from and to the same destinations at the same time (as is typical for commutes) would be able to share the ride. Imagine then making those vehicles larger to enable not only a decrease in traffic, but an increase in housing density, local infrastructure in walking distance, and economic growth. Imagine if we then realized we could charge that elongated car as it's driving if we put electric lines above streets. Oh, and why not increase rolling efficiency while we're at that, and make the task of self-driving simpler by embedding signaling infrastructure into the road itself. You just imagined buses, trolley buses, and streetcars respectively. Which is what makes the most sense, and will continue making the most sense for vehicles that don't sit in your garage most of the time. There's more to car ownership than being able to get from A to B in principle. Once you add immediate availability, individual vehicle preferences, having your stuff in the car already, the ability to keep your stuff there once you arrive at your destination, never having to think about small, but normal usage damage (especially if you have kids), or, conversely, having the vehicle just as clean as you want it... ...you will see that garages aren't going anywhere any time soon, self-driving cars or not. And that we'd be wise to develop actual public transport infrastructure for the people who really do only care about getting from A to B, with some acceptable wait time. It's a win-win for everyone. My pessimistic prognosis is that the development of the self-driving car will make the taxis slightly cheaper, but instead of paying your Uber driver, you're going to be paying engineers, maintenance, and cleaning staff.

ljm 5y ago
Imagine how different the US would be if it was Big Public Transportation that lobbied to have towns and cities designed around them, rather than the car industry. Walking, cycling, buses, trams, trains, etc. etc. You'd still have cars but they wouldn't be a basic need for survival like they're often treated as, because you can't get anywhere without one. Because it was basically 100 years ago when the car industry sought to dismantle that infrastructure, and succeeded.
- asdff 5y ago
  To be fair it wasn't some conspiracy. The reason why people began using the car 100 years ago was that the car was becoming widely available and it was super convenient even in the days when roads were caked in horse manure. Even in the peak of the streetcar era, the private car was the best way around town, and as more people bought more cars, it continued to dominate as the streetcar would be bogged down in traffic just like a bus today. Intercity passenger rail also didn't stand much of a chance against the convenience and speed of the jet age.
  - ljm 5y ago
    There was _a_ conspiracy, or at least Wikipedia refers to it as such: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_consp.... That is to say, there's enough there to suggest that this wasn't the free market answering solely to consumer demand.
    - TMWNN 5y ago
      The article explains why there actually was no conspiracy.[1] [1] No, kids, Who Framed Roger Rabbit? isn't real history
      - romwell 5y ago
        I mean, is it really a conspiracy if open and unashamed corruption was the modus operandi at the time. When there's funding for highways but not rails, the results are unsurprising. The benefits of public transit are a positive externality[1][2]. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality#Positive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality#Positive [2]Real history is way worse

MisterBastahrd 5y ago

That is only going to happen for most people if the economics of car rentals are VEEEEEERRY reasonable. I am not willing to wait 10 minutes for an available vehicle every time I need to go somewhere. People who are dreaming of a day of full automation need to take this into account, because while I don't know how long the average trip by car is, I suspect that it's somewhere in the 15-20 minute range, which is impossible to match even with a fully autonomous driving scheme that can ignore things like stop lights and stop signs.

fallingknife 5y ago
Uber now is rarely 10 minutes or more. Usually <5 if you're in a major city.
- ctdonath 5y ago
  Easily >45 minutes if not.
- MisterBastahrd 5y ago
  I live in a suburb of Dallas and Uber is always 30 minutes plus.

HeyLaughingBoy 5y ago

People keep saying this, but I don't get it. The majority of your possessions spend most of their time sitting idle. Even if I just look at the higher value ones: my riding lawnmower gets used for a couple of hours every few weeks, my garden tractor/snowblower even less frequently, then I've got a trailer, a truck, miscellaneous tools, etc. I could rent every single one of these, but don't because the economics don't make sense, and the use model would otherwise lead to a lot of inconvenience.

tomc1985 5y ago
It's the same crap preached by the cloud infrastructure folks trying to get everyone on a rental/sharecropping model. Ah those sweet rents
angry-sw-dev 5y ago
The lynchpin in these arguments is that you'll somehow be able to summon a vehicle on a moments notice and all your usage will still be less expensive than personal ownership. The cost will be low because no humans are involved... Except it didn't work for ZipCar or the rental agencies that have added hourly options -- sure it's not bad, but is it really pushing people out of car ownership? No... Ride sharing similarly hasn't worked to push people out of car ownership either -- it's just killed traditional taxi services by compensating drivers less and eliminating the flag down monopoly some cities have maintained (a taxi medallion in Boston/NYC used to be worth hundreds of thousands... no one wants them now) All these share options work for low use scenarios like the city dweller who wants a weekly trip to a shopping center, but for the daily commuter/driver it won't ever make sense... and it'll never make sense for those that need to keep things in their car like child seats, diapers, a walker, tools, etc... Bike/Scooter shares haven't eliminated personal ownership either because of the scarcity issue at peak times.
- spicybright 5y ago
  Not to mention, do you really trust 20 strangers to treat your possessions as well as you do? Have these people never been in the back of a taxi, or any kind of public transit?

tomc1985 5y ago

Every body says this but how many of us are going to want randos treating our vehicles like shit because its a rental?

earleybird 5y ago
Vehicles are more than a transport service; they are also, for example, a place to keep your stuff while you run errands.