4 ms·
South Africa has 20,000/day cases which is about the same they had in July, yet they peak at 30 deaths/day vs 400 deaths/day in July. To estimate the fatality r
by ucha 5y ago
South Africa has 20,000/day cases which is about the same they had in July, yet they peak at 30 deaths/day vs 400 deaths/day in July. To estimate the fatality rate of a variant, you need to do it within the same population. At the current rate, Omicron is literally as deadly as influenza in South Africa [1] and, as the current wave passed its peak, it might be even less deadly than that.
PS: parent post is sarcastic
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/globalhealth/countries/southafrica/what/influenza.htm https://www.cdc.gov/globalhealth/countries/southafrica/what/...
- ericb 5y agoYou can't go by cases/day though--there's a cohort problem. In the slow growth scenario, when you are at 20,000 cases a day, the deaths on that day are from the seeds of cases that started "long" ago. When you get to 20k on the back of a growth explosion, those cases are all "brand new." This is not to say that it won't be less deadly, just that judging it that way is very flawed.
- ucha 5y agoThis is true in theory but I don't think it matters in practice. Median time between symptoms onset and death is 7 days for the 2nd wave in the UK [1] which is pretty short and doesn't allow for "old seeds". The tail of distribution is also quite thin. Those number might be different for Omicron but nothing points to that as far as I know. Unless Omicron-sick people die on average 2 months after infection I don't see how it could be equally or more deadly. [1] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928729/S0803_CO-CIN_-_Time_from_symptom_onset_until_death.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...