4 ms·

And this means... ?

• MontyCarloHall 5y ago
  It means that if (big ifs!) (a) the South African peak is truly a peak and (b) vaccine-acquired immunity staves off severe illness to the same extent that infection-acquired immunity does[*], Europe is not in for “quite a ride.” As in South Africa, cases will briefly peak at a very high level, but without a corresponding high level of hospitalizations or deaths. [*] while only ~30% of SA’s population has been vaccinated, some estimate an additional 40% of the population have been infected, for an overall immunity rate of ~70%, which is comparable to the vaccination rate in the US/Europe.
  • pfg 5y ago
    The likely higher transmissibility in combination with a generally more elderly population and vaccination gaps among older individuals in some European countries (e.g. Germany) could still spell trouble.
    • bipson 5y ago
      And experts are pretty sure by now that it will. Also NL, DK and the London area are already putting drastic measures up. They are not doing this just for fun.