3 ms·
Feel free to plug in population numbers into an exponential growth function and watch the medical system get overwhelmed. This isn't about it collapsing - once
by igorkraw 5y ago
Feel free to plug in population numbers into an exponential growth function and watch the medical system get overwhelmed. This isn't about it collapsing - once a few thousand people have died preventable deaths and a bunch of medical staff quits because of PTSD, we'll stabilize. But at least in the ethical framework dominant in my cultural sphere, that's not really an acceptable path.
- gus_massa 5y agoRemember that it's not an exponential. The total number of cases is very similar to a logistic curve that initially can be approximated by an exponential, but later it stabilizes and it looks like a step. The number of active cases / hospitalizations is similar to the derivative of the logistic curve that initially can be approximated by an exponential, after some time goes to zero. It looks like a bump. A smaller hospitalization rate means that hopefully the bump is low enough to not saturate the hospitals. More about some simple models: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidem...