3 ms·
You should read the article. They are making the same kind of argument as you, but more carefully. In particular, the key logic is: either intelligent life tak
by dash2 5y ago
You should read the article. They are making the same kind of argument as you, but more carefully.
In particular, the key logic is: either intelligent life takes much longer to evolve than stars’ lifetimes, or about the same, or much less. We evolved at about 80% of Earth’s habitable lifespan. That would be very unlikely, if on average intelligence took less time to evolve than star lifetimes. Taking the same time on average is a knife edge case (I think this depends on the multiplicative nature of the probability distributions involved). So probably it is more. In which case, life is very rare.