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There is no evidence Omicron is milder than Delta. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/18/no-evidence-omicron-milder-than-delta-british-researchers-say http

There is no evidence Omicron is milder than Delta. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/18/no-evidence-omicron-milder-than-delta-british-researchers-say https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/18/no-evidence-omicro...

XzetaU8 5y ago
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence-is-a-red-flag https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence...
- jollybean 5y ago
  Here is the Oxford study [1] it's brutal. [1] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/modelling-suggests-rapid-spread-omicron-england/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/modelling-suggests-ra...
  - walterbell 5y ago
    Past performance of UK models, https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios
    - jollybean 5y ago
      It's not a model, it's an observation. There is no clear evidence as of yet to suggest hospitalization or mortality rates of Omicron among our kind of population. We'll have a better idea in a few weeks.
      - Closi 5y ago
        No clear evidence yet when just looking at a small sample of UK data. It's clear from SA that this wave is having lower mortality than previous waves (perhaps for a mixture of reasons). There is also data that shows that Omicron spreads much slower in the lung than the previous variant, while spreading 70 times faster in bronchial tissue (which is why it is so transmissable) so there is a suspected vector for why it may be milder. (https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/omicron-propagates-70-times-faster-than-delta-in-bronchi-study-69540 https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/omicron-propagate...)
        jollybean 5y ago
        No, it's not 'clear' at all. SA has 70-80% natural immunity, the UK does not. They have different healthcare facilities, rates of testing, data collection. Nothing we've seen yet is definitive.
    - coriny 5y ago
      They seem pretty good. This summer was a bit of a mystery, but otherwise things have tracked pretty well. <jk> Obviously you can't determine anything without taking into account the estimated/guessed factors (extent of people movement, other restrictions) included in the models versus what really happened (new restrictions, lower than expected movement). And why only select this subset of forecasts, given they are produced daily/weekly (depending on urgency)? There was an early prediction that Covid would only cause ~30,000 deaths in the UK, why wasn't that included? Do you have a link to anything that isn't Fox-news level cherry-picking? The Spectator is notoriously not a reliable source.
      - walterbell 5y ago
        Since there's currently a shortage of objective journalism, we're left with adversarial presentations. Above is one perspective. There must be other presentations or analysis from teams or organizations with varying incentives. Maybe even from the people creating the models? Hopefully someone can link them.
    - zibzab 5y ago
      Note that the model does not take into account any countermeasures. If the model promises hell, the country goes into full lockdown and at the end we only see a mild hell-ish, was the model wrong?
      - sokoloff 5y ago
        If the country goes into full lockdown, you got the hell that the model predicted.
        zibzab 5y ago
        No, mate. Hell is mom and grandma dyeing by slowly being suffocated. Full lockdown is just a major inconvince.
        netizen-936824 5y ago
        FYI the guy you're replying to is VP of a company. Of course he's worried about his profits over the lives of humans
        ryanlol 5y ago
        Indeed, there is simply no excuse for the lockdowns to extend beyond mom and grandma. Restrictions focused at me, a healthy vaccinated under-30 yo male aren’t helping anyone.
        jollybean 5y ago
        COVID is a community disease, when you get infected you spread it, and that 'spread' eventually gets to the elderly. It's a second order concept but it's not hard to understand for anyone reading HN. If you knock down the dominos, they will mostly all get knocked down and take everyone with them. If you separate the dominos, they don't take everything down. I'm not sure if lockdowns are the right measure, and public fatigue is a factor - but if they end up being a rational measure then that's what we need to do.
Closi 5y ago
> There is no evidence Omicron is milder than Delta. > Cited Study: The non peer-reviewed research was based on UK Health Security Agency and National Health Service data on people who tested positive for COVID-19 in a PCR test in England between November 29 and December 11 Well, of course there won't be evidence in that dataset! This was before even a single omicron death in the UK. However there is evidence in other datasets - including what is happening on the ground in South Africa.
HamburgerEmoji 5y ago

XzetaU8 5y ago

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence-is-a-red-flag https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence...

jollybean 5y ago
Here is the Oxford study [1] it's brutal. [1] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/modelling-suggests-rapid-spread-omicron-england/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/modelling-suggests-ra...
- walterbell 5y ago
  Past performance of UK models, https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios
  - jollybean 5y ago
    It's not a model, it's an observation. There is no clear evidence as of yet to suggest hospitalization or mortality rates of Omicron among our kind of population. We'll have a better idea in a few weeks.
    - Closi 5y ago
      No clear evidence yet when just looking at a small sample of UK data. It's clear from SA that this wave is having lower mortality than previous waves (perhaps for a mixture of reasons). There is also data that shows that Omicron spreads much slower in the lung than the previous variant, while spreading 70 times faster in bronchial tissue (which is why it is so transmissable) so there is a suspected vector for why it may be milder. (https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/omicron-propagates-70-times-faster-than-delta-in-bronchi-study-69540 https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/omicron-propagate...)
      - jollybean 5y ago
        No, it's not 'clear' at all. SA has 70-80% natural immunity, the UK does not. They have different healthcare facilities, rates of testing, data collection. Nothing we've seen yet is definitive.
  - coriny 5y ago
    They seem pretty good. This summer was a bit of a mystery, but otherwise things have tracked pretty well. <jk> Obviously you can't determine anything without taking into account the estimated/guessed factors (extent of people movement, other restrictions) included in the models versus what really happened (new restrictions, lower than expected movement). And why only select this subset of forecasts, given they are produced daily/weekly (depending on urgency)? There was an early prediction that Covid would only cause ~30,000 deaths in the UK, why wasn't that included? Do you have a link to anything that isn't Fox-news level cherry-picking? The Spectator is notoriously not a reliable source.
    - walterbell 5y ago
      Since there's currently a shortage of objective journalism, we're left with adversarial presentations. Above is one perspective. There must be other presentations or analysis from teams or organizations with varying incentives. Maybe even from the people creating the models? Hopefully someone can link them.
  - zibzab 5y ago
    Note that the model does not take into account any countermeasures. If the model promises hell, the country goes into full lockdown and at the end we only see a mild hell-ish, was the model wrong?
    - sokoloff 5y ago
      If the country goes into full lockdown, you got the hell that the model predicted.
      - zibzab 5y ago
        No, mate. Hell is mom and grandma dyeing by slowly being suffocated. Full lockdown is just a major inconvince.
        netizen-936824 5y ago
        FYI the guy you're replying to is VP of a company. Of course he's worried about his profits over the lives of humans
        ryanlol 5y ago
        Indeed, there is simply no excuse for the lockdowns to extend beyond mom and grandma. Restrictions focused at me, a healthy vaccinated under-30 yo male aren’t helping anyone.
        jollybean 5y ago
        COVID is a community disease, when you get infected you spread it, and that 'spread' eventually gets to the elderly. It's a second order concept but it's not hard to understand for anyone reading HN. If you knock down the dominos, they will mostly all get knocked down and take everyone with them. If you separate the dominos, they don't take everything down. I'm not sure if lockdowns are the right measure, and public fatigue is a factor - but if they end up being a rational measure then that's what we need to do.

Closi 5y ago

> There is no evidence Omicron is milder than Delta. > Cited Study: The non peer-reviewed research was based on UK Health Security Agency and National Health Service data on people who tested positive for COVID-19 in a PCR test in England between November 29 and December 11 Well, of course there won't be evidence in that dataset! This was before even a single omicron death in the UK. However there is evidence in other datasets - including what is happening on the ground in South Africa.

HamburgerEmoji 5y ago