5 ms·

Did you know you happened to be speaking to one such expert? Today is your lucky day, it’s your chance to enlighten me: what were the experts wrong about?

by epgui 5y ago

refurb 5y ago
- herd immunity - driving R-value below 1 will cause Covid to extinguish itself - vaccine will prevent infection - vaccinated can get infected but don’t really infect others
- anaganisk 5y ago
  Can you list those experts? Because none of the actual experts I heard or read about said that. A simple google search about those points also reveal optimistic opinions by various people and not one instance where experts claim so.
  - refurb 5y ago
    Your Google skills are weak. The examples are easy to find. The CDC said that the vaccinated can only “rarely” infect others. And before you say “but Delta!”, Delta was already dominant around the time of the statement. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/cdc-vaccinated-delta.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/cdc-vaccinated-del...
    - epgui 5y ago
    - anaganisk 5y ago
      Or your understanding skills are weak. I don’t know what you are even trying to reply, I don’t see one mention that says CDC claims vaccinated people do not spread the infection. Yes they said rarely, but that does also mean, vaccinated people are likely to spread disease. Unlike your statement earlier which implies they claimed vaccinated do not spread disease.
      - refurb 5y ago
        So you agree that the CDC was wrong? That was my entire point and what you challenged me on. You seem to be trying to squirm out of your earlier statement.
        anaganisk 5y ago
        No expert worth his salt will ever say vaccines are 100% effective, what vaccine does is train your body, its up to your body on response. So what CDC said was true, I never said it was wrong. You took the article as an absolute statement which is clearly wrong.
- epgui 5y ago
  Driving Rt below one will cause any species to go extinct. That’s just basic maths. If it’s not happening, then Rt is not below 1. As for the rest, you’re taking ideas that have some truth to them, and probably misinterpreting what these things actually mean and taking them unreasonably far or to the extreme: - Herd immunity is a thing, but I'm not sure how you imagine it in your head, or what you think that means. - Vaccines do prevent infections, but not perfectly well. This (or the contrary) has been communicated to the public in very confusing ways. - It is true that vaccinated people have a lower likelihood of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 to others. I'm not sure if you think that means it should be perfect, but biology is messy.
  - refurb 5y ago
    Your response is some impressive hand waving. Yes, those things are infectious disease concepts and they were touted as to how COVID will be dealt with. Lots of talk of “once we get to 80% vaccination rate we’ll hit here immunity”. You don’t hear that any more huh? “If we drive R below 1 we can extinguish Covid”. Now it’s “Covid is endemic, it’s not going away”. “Once everyone is vaccinated, Covid goes away”, then “It really rare for the vaccinated to get Covid” to “holy shit, most new cases are in fully vaccinated”. You can honestly look at that narrative and NOT completely understand why people are not listening any more?
    - epgui 5y ago
      My response isn’t hand-wavy, it’s pretty categorical: the problem is that people can’t deal with uncertainty, and fill in too many blanks in their minds with over-simplistic assumptions. If you’re looking for a full picture of certainty about the future, that’s not exactly what science will give you.
      - throwoutway 5y ago
        > the problem is that people can’t deal with uncertainty, and fill in too many blanks in their minds with over-simplistic assumptions. No, the problem is that this was communicated in imperfect ways to the public (as you said yourself), who then filled in the gaps themselves. Risk communication is complicated and the govt, the experts, and the media all failed the public here.

Did you know you happened to be speaking to one such expert? Today is your lucky day, it’s your chance to enlighten me: what were the experts wrong about?

by epgui 5y ago

Did you know you happened to be speaking to one such expert? Today is your lucky day, it’s your chance to enlighten me: what were the experts wrong about?

refurb 5y ago

- herd immunity - driving R-value below 1 will cause Covid to extinguish itself - vaccine will prevent infection - vaccinated can get infected but don’t really infect others

anaganisk 5y ago
Can you list those experts? Because none of the actual experts I heard or read about said that. A simple google search about those points also reveal optimistic opinions by various people and not one instance where experts claim so.
- refurb 5y ago
  Your Google skills are weak. The examples are easy to find. The CDC said that the vaccinated can only “rarely” infect others. And before you say “but Delta!”, Delta was already dominant around the time of the statement. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/cdc-vaccinated-delta.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/cdc-vaccinated-del...
  - epgui 5y ago
  - anaganisk 5y ago
    Or your understanding skills are weak. I don’t know what you are even trying to reply, I don’t see one mention that says CDC claims vaccinated people do not spread the infection. Yes they said rarely, but that does also mean, vaccinated people are likely to spread disease. Unlike your statement earlier which implies they claimed vaccinated do not spread disease.
    - refurb 5y ago
      So you agree that the CDC was wrong? That was my entire point and what you challenged me on. You seem to be trying to squirm out of your earlier statement.
      - anaganisk 5y ago
        No expert worth his salt will ever say vaccines are 100% effective, what vaccine does is train your body, its up to your body on response. So what CDC said was true, I never said it was wrong. You took the article as an absolute statement which is clearly wrong.
epgui 5y ago
Driving Rt below one will cause any species to go extinct. That’s just basic maths. If it’s not happening, then Rt is not below 1. As for the rest, you’re taking ideas that have some truth to them, and probably misinterpreting what these things actually mean and taking them unreasonably far or to the extreme: - Herd immunity is a thing, but I'm not sure how you imagine it in your head, or what you think that means. - Vaccines do prevent infections, but not perfectly well. This (or the contrary) has been communicated to the public in very confusing ways. - It is true that vaccinated people have a lower likelihood of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 to others. I'm not sure if you think that means it should be perfect, but biology is messy.
- refurb 5y ago
  Your response is some impressive hand waving. Yes, those things are infectious disease concepts and they were touted as to how COVID will be dealt with. Lots of talk of “once we get to 80% vaccination rate we’ll hit here immunity”. You don’t hear that any more huh? “If we drive R below 1 we can extinguish Covid”. Now it’s “Covid is endemic, it’s not going away”. “Once everyone is vaccinated, Covid goes away”, then “It really rare for the vaccinated to get Covid” to “holy shit, most new cases are in fully vaccinated”. You can honestly look at that narrative and NOT completely understand why people are not listening any more?
  - epgui 5y ago
    My response isn’t hand-wavy, it’s pretty categorical: the problem is that people can’t deal with uncertainty, and fill in too many blanks in their minds with over-simplistic assumptions. If you’re looking for a full picture of certainty about the future, that’s not exactly what science will give you.
    - throwoutway 5y ago
      > the problem is that people can’t deal with uncertainty, and fill in too many blanks in their minds with over-simplistic assumptions. No, the problem is that this was communicated in imperfect ways to the public (as you said yourself), who then filled in the gaps themselves. Risk communication is complicated and the govt, the experts, and the media all failed the public here.