5 ms·
The goal posts do keep moving, because vaccination uptake is slow, people keep arguing against public health measures, and while we waste time delaying measures
by epgui 5y ago
The goal posts do keep moving, because vaccination uptake is slow, people keep arguing against public health measures, and while we waste time delaying measures or implementing half baked measures, the virus evolves.
- 650 5y agoLook at BC Canada, 90% vaccine uptake (2 doses). Very strong public masking. Vax passport checking at most businesses. More restrictions recently introduced. Hospitals on the verge of being overwhelmed.
- magicalist 5y ago> 90% vaccine uptake (2 doses) 82% > Hospitals on the verge of being overwhelmed There's 191 people in the hospital in BC for covid right now[1]. Current preparations are for if omicron has exponential growth over the next several weeks. [1] https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/a6f23959a8b14bfa989e3cda29297ded https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/a6f23959a8b14bfa989...
- epgui 5y agoThat’s where I live (Vancouver). Travel restrictions are extremely loose, and public masking and social distancing are not stellar.
- refurb 5y agoNope. In countries that have vaccination rates and strict compliance to measure the cases keep going up. The goalposts move because the experts were wrong.
- epgui 5y agoDid you know you happened to be speaking to one such expert? Today is your lucky day, it’s your chance to enlighten me: what were the experts wrong about?
- refurb 5y ago- herd immunity - driving R-value below 1 will cause Covid to extinguish itself - vaccine will prevent infection - vaccinated can get infected but don’t really infect others
- anaganisk 5y agoCan you list those experts? Because none of the actual experts I heard or read about said that. A simple google search about those points also reveal optimistic opinions by various people and not one instance where experts claim so.
- refurb 5y agoYour Google skills are weak. The examples are easy to find. The CDC said that the vaccinated can only “rarely” infect others. And before you say “but Delta!”, Delta was already dominant around the time of the statement. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/cdc-vaccinated-delta.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/cdc-vaccinated-del...
- epgui 5y ago
- anaganisk 5y agoOr your understanding skills are weak. I don’t know what you are even trying to reply, I don’t see one mention that says CDC claims vaccinated people do not spread the infection. Yes they said rarely, but that does also mean, vaccinated people are likely to spread disease. Unlike your statement earlier which implies they claimed vaccinated do not spread disease.
- refurb 5y agoSo you agree that the CDC was wrong? That was my entire point and what you challenged me on. You seem to be trying to squirm out of your earlier statement.
- disambiguation 5y agoAre you suggesting if everyone was vaccinated we wouldn't have variants at all? Or is there some other measure that can prevent variants? I'm not familiar with a public health policy that can do that.
- epgui 5y agoWhat is it with everyone and the all-or-nothing mental models?
- disambiguation 5y agoThat's what I thought.
- epgui 5y agoAll the behaviour changes, vaccines, masks and other public health intervention have the effect of reducing Rt, geometrically, by some factor. When Rt goes below 1 for long enough, not only do variants go away, covid goes away. When you do all kinds of halfass measures and either Rt does not go below 1, or keeps going below and above 1, then you’re giving time for the virus to mutate, and this has the effect of moving people from the “immune” bucket back to the “vulnerable” bucket. When you’re beyond the very beginning of the infections S-curve, this results in an increase of Rt, which further prolongs everything. The longer this happens, the more things change (and more likely than not, for the worse), hence goalposts needing to be adjusted.