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Does this mean COVID is over? I thought once the vaccines were available we could move on with life, but somehow the goal posts kept moving. Will people accept

Does this mean COVID is over? I thought once the vaccines were available we could move on with life, but somehow the goal posts kept moving. Will people accept the much smaller risk of hospitalization once this pill is available?

joe_guy 5y ago
> but somehow the goal posts kept moving. The virus changes, so the end conditions change. It's frustrating but it is what it is.
- jimmyearlcarter 5y ago
epgui 5y ago
The goal posts do keep moving, because vaccination uptake is slow, people keep arguing against public health measures, and while we waste time delaying measures or implementing half baked measures, the virus evolves.
- 650 5y ago
  Look at BC Canada, 90% vaccine uptake (2 doses). Very strong public masking. Vax passport checking at most businesses. More restrictions recently introduced. Hospitals on the verge of being overwhelmed.
  - magicalist 5y ago
    > 90% vaccine uptake (2 doses) 82% > Hospitals on the verge of being overwhelmed There's 191 people in the hospital in BC for covid right now[1]. Current preparations are for if omicron has exponential growth over the next several weeks. [1] https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/a6f23959a8b14bfa989e3cda29297ded https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/a6f23959a8b14bfa989...
  - epgui 5y ago
    That’s where I live (Vancouver). Travel restrictions are extremely loose, and public masking and social distancing are not stellar.
- refurb 5y ago
  Nope. In countries that have vaccination rates and strict compliance to measure the cases keep going up. The goalposts move because the experts were wrong.
  - epgui 5y ago
    Did you know you happened to be speaking to one such expert? Today is your lucky day, it’s your chance to enlighten me: what were the experts wrong about?
    - refurb 5y ago
      - herd immunity - driving R-value below 1 will cause Covid to extinguish itself - vaccine will prevent infection - vaccinated can get infected but don’t really infect others
      - anaganisk 5y ago
        Can you list those experts? Because none of the actual experts I heard or read about said that. A simple google search about those points also reveal optimistic opinions by various people and not one instance where experts claim so.
        refurb 5y ago
        Your Google skills are weak. The examples are easy to find. The CDC said that the vaccinated can only “rarely” infect others. And before you say “but Delta!”, Delta was already dominant around the time of the statement. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/cdc-vaccinated-delta.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/cdc-vaccinated-del...
        epgui 5y ago
        anaganisk 5y ago
- disambiguation 5y ago
  Are you suggesting if everyone was vaccinated we wouldn't have variants at all? Or is there some other measure that can prevent variants? I'm not familiar with a public health policy that can do that.
  - epgui 5y ago
    What is it with everyone and the all-or-nothing mental models?
    - disambiguation 5y ago
      That's what I thought.
      - epgui 5y ago
        All the behaviour changes, vaccines, masks and other public health intervention have the effect of reducing Rt, geometrically, by some factor. When Rt goes below 1 for long enough, not only do variants go away, covid goes away. When you do all kinds of halfass measures and either Rt does not go below 1, or keeps going below and above 1, then you’re giving time for the virus to mutate, and this has the effect of moving people from the “immune” bucket back to the “vulnerable” bucket. When you’re beyond the very beginning of the infections S-curve, this results in an increase of Rt, which further prolongs everything. The longer this happens, the more things change (and more likely than not, for the worse), hence goalposts needing to be adjusted.
        spurgu 5y ago
        So what do you do when variants are still ravaging in Africa for example? Isolate the continent?
        epgui 5y ago
        The short answer is yes, but this deserves a much longer answer than this comment.
vmception 5y ago
The goal posts change because the variables change while the prior post is never met. In my world, everyone that could segregate from vulnerable populations already has and vice versa. They moved, and go out with everyone else that wont go home to an immunocompromised or prediabetic or elderly person. Multiday 300,000+ attendee music festivals have occurred in major US markets without making the news as reckless and welcomed by all levels of government at the time. Commonwealth countries and major markets in Europe seem to be less tolerant to the idea of governing, I mean a lower threshold to infection to justify continued restrictions. Many of their citizens are coming to the US if they can, as well. US is still doing way worse with infections, deaths, ICU capacity, but its a two tiered reality. And as long as emergency services remain available for everyone else I think thats a good enough bar for people to make their own decisions - which is an opinion matched by even the most restrictive major municipalities in the US, for some time. Remote work has been normalized enough for enough people/office jobs to not require a compromise to stay home.
fivea 5y ago
> Does this mean COVID is over? When I took my first jab, the local clinic handed out a flier explaining in no uncertain terms that: a) the current batch of vaccines work by giving our immune system a workout to be able to experience a COVID infection as either totally unnoticed or at most a mild case, b) the current batch of vaccines does not nor did ever guaranteed you won't contract and spread COVID, c) even with all shots we still need to practice basic higiene and health precautions like wearing a mask, wash hands, and social distance. We're talking about pre-Delta times. This has been widely known from the start. How come antivaxxers are the only ones repeating cynical comments on how the initial batch of vaccines, which we all are lucky to have but are still at the level of being better than nothing, would be a silver bullet?
- Ajedi32 5y ago
  > the current batch of vaccines does not nor did ever guaranteed you won't contract and spread COVID Guarantee, no. But the thought was that it would greatly reduce the risk of spreading the disease, such that once a sufficient number of people were vaccinated herd immunity would kill off the virus and end the pandemic. We're now two years in with a 73% vaccination rate in the US (not counting those with natural immunity), with even higher rates elsewhere; still no end in sight. If vaccines aren't going to end the pandemic, then something else needs to. Will a pill that reduces the lethality of the disease by 89% be enough that we can finally put this to rest and go back to normal? If not that, then what?
  - patrickthebold 5y ago
    I thought the vaccines reduced the lethality quite a bit. Do we know how vaccinated/no pill compare to unvaccinated/pill?
  - acdha 5y ago
    > But the thought was that it would greatly reduce the risk of spreading the disease, such that once a sufficient number of people were vaccinated herd immunity would kill off the virus and end the pandemic. We're now two years in with a 73% vaccination rate in the US (not counting those with natural immunity), This was very clearly and openly discussed when the vaccines first came out: vaccines would help reduce spread and with a high enough rate that would end the pandemic but that we’d need relatively high vaccination rates to stop something which can spread this easily. This was correct and the data suggests that it could have worked but we never seriously tried it. As of today, 61% of Americans have been vaccinated. That is far, far below the 90+% threshold used in those first messages — and that was before Delta and the Omicron delivered both higher spread and reduced effectiveness to make the problem harder. The other thing to remember is that the pandemic ending doesn’t necessarily mean complete eradication. If, as appears to be the case, vaccination and medications significantly reduce the risk of serious illness and/or long COVID, that will probably be enough to get it down to the level of, say, influenza.

joe_guy 5y ago

> but somehow the goal posts kept moving. The virus changes, so the end conditions change. It's frustrating but it is what it is.

jimmyearlcarter 5y ago

epgui 5y ago

The goal posts do keep moving, because vaccination uptake is slow, people keep arguing against public health measures, and while we waste time delaying measures or implementing half baked measures, the virus evolves.

650 5y ago
Look at BC Canada, 90% vaccine uptake (2 doses). Very strong public masking. Vax passport checking at most businesses. More restrictions recently introduced. Hospitals on the verge of being overwhelmed.
- magicalist 5y ago
  > 90% vaccine uptake (2 doses) 82% > Hospitals on the verge of being overwhelmed There's 191 people in the hospital in BC for covid right now[1]. Current preparations are for if omicron has exponential growth over the next several weeks. [1] https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/a6f23959a8b14bfa989e3cda29297ded https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/a6f23959a8b14bfa989...
- epgui 5y ago
  That’s where I live (Vancouver). Travel restrictions are extremely loose, and public masking and social distancing are not stellar.
refurb 5y ago
Nope. In countries that have vaccination rates and strict compliance to measure the cases keep going up. The goalposts move because the experts were wrong.
- epgui 5y ago
  Did you know you happened to be speaking to one such expert? Today is your lucky day, it’s your chance to enlighten me: what were the experts wrong about?
  - refurb 5y ago
    - herd immunity - driving R-value below 1 will cause Covid to extinguish itself - vaccine will prevent infection - vaccinated can get infected but don’t really infect others
    - anaganisk 5y ago
      Can you list those experts? Because none of the actual experts I heard or read about said that. A simple google search about those points also reveal optimistic opinions by various people and not one instance where experts claim so.
      - refurb 5y ago
        Your Google skills are weak. The examples are easy to find. The CDC said that the vaccinated can only “rarely” infect others. And before you say “but Delta!”, Delta was already dominant around the time of the statement. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/cdc-vaccinated-delta.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/cdc-vaccinated-del...
        epgui 5y ago
        anaganisk 5y ago
disambiguation 5y ago
Are you suggesting if everyone was vaccinated we wouldn't have variants at all? Or is there some other measure that can prevent variants? I'm not familiar with a public health policy that can do that.
- epgui 5y ago
  What is it with everyone and the all-or-nothing mental models?
  - disambiguation 5y ago
    That's what I thought.
    - epgui 5y ago
      All the behaviour changes, vaccines, masks and other public health intervention have the effect of reducing Rt, geometrically, by some factor. When Rt goes below 1 for long enough, not only do variants go away, covid goes away. When you do all kinds of halfass measures and either Rt does not go below 1, or keeps going below and above 1, then you’re giving time for the virus to mutate, and this has the effect of moving people from the “immune” bucket back to the “vulnerable” bucket. When you’re beyond the very beginning of the infections S-curve, this results in an increase of Rt, which further prolongs everything. The longer this happens, the more things change (and more likely than not, for the worse), hence goalposts needing to be adjusted.
      - spurgu 5y ago
        So what do you do when variants are still ravaging in Africa for example? Isolate the continent?
        epgui 5y ago
        The short answer is yes, but this deserves a much longer answer than this comment.

vmception 5y ago

The goal posts change because the variables change while the prior post is never met. In my world, everyone that could segregate from vulnerable populations already has and vice versa. They moved, and go out with everyone else that wont go home to an immunocompromised or prediabetic or elderly person. Multiday 300,000+ attendee music festivals have occurred in major US markets without making the news as reckless and welcomed by all levels of government at the time. Commonwealth countries and major markets in Europe seem to be less tolerant to the idea of governing, I mean a lower threshold to infection to justify continued restrictions. Many of their citizens are coming to the US if they can, as well. US is still doing way worse with infections, deaths, ICU capacity, but its a two tiered reality. And as long as emergency services remain available for everyone else I think thats a good enough bar for people to make their own decisions - which is an opinion matched by even the most restrictive major municipalities in the US, for some time. Remote work has been normalized enough for enough people/office jobs to not require a compromise to stay home.

fivea 5y ago

> Does this mean COVID is over? When I took my first jab, the local clinic handed out a flier explaining in no uncertain terms that: a) the current batch of vaccines work by giving our immune system a workout to be able to experience a COVID infection as either totally unnoticed or at most a mild case, b) the current batch of vaccines does not nor did ever guaranteed you won't contract and spread COVID, c) even with all shots we still need to practice basic higiene and health precautions like wearing a mask, wash hands, and social distance. We're talking about pre-Delta times. This has been widely known from the start. How come antivaxxers are the only ones repeating cynical comments on how the initial batch of vaccines, which we all are lucky to have but are still at the level of being better than nothing, would be a silver bullet?

Ajedi32 5y ago
> the current batch of vaccines does not nor did ever guaranteed you won't contract and spread COVID Guarantee, no. But the thought was that it would greatly reduce the risk of spreading the disease, such that once a sufficient number of people were vaccinated herd immunity would kill off the virus and end the pandemic. We're now two years in with a 73% vaccination rate in the US (not counting those with natural immunity), with even higher rates elsewhere; still no end in sight. If vaccines aren't going to end the pandemic, then something else needs to. Will a pill that reduces the lethality of the disease by 89% be enough that we can finally put this to rest and go back to normal? If not that, then what?
- patrickthebold 5y ago
  I thought the vaccines reduced the lethality quite a bit. Do we know how vaccinated/no pill compare to unvaccinated/pill?
- acdha 5y ago
  > But the thought was that it would greatly reduce the risk of spreading the disease, such that once a sufficient number of people were vaccinated herd immunity would kill off the virus and end the pandemic. We're now two years in with a 73% vaccination rate in the US (not counting those with natural immunity), This was very clearly and openly discussed when the vaccines first came out: vaccines would help reduce spread and with a high enough rate that would end the pandemic but that we’d need relatively high vaccination rates to stop something which can spread this easily. This was correct and the data suggests that it could have worked but we never seriously tried it. As of today, 61% of Americans have been vaccinated. That is far, far below the 90+% threshold used in those first messages — and that was before Delta and the Omicron delivered both higher spread and reduced effectiveness to make the problem harder. The other thing to remember is that the pandemic ending doesn’t necessarily mean complete eradication. If, as appears to be the case, vaccination and medications significantly reduce the risk of serious illness and/or long COVID, that will probably be enough to get it down to the level of, say, influenza.