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Taiwan could likely develop their own native nuclear weapons in a matter of months, if they chose to. They have a mature nuclear industry with several reactors

Taiwan could likely develop their own native nuclear weapons in a matter of months, if they chose to. They have a mature nuclear industry with several reactors, and likely already have plans for nuclear weapons drawn up.

sudosysgen 5y ago
You're forgetting about Chinese intelligence. It would never work once the Chinese notice and it would only provide an actually valid casus belli
- BrazzVuvuzela 5y ago
  China could accuse Taiwan of developing nuclear weapons today, saying their spies uncovered the plot. Would you, I or anybody else be able to refute it? Would our doubt matter? And if Taiwan really did start manufacturing nuclear bombs and China was telling the truth about it, would you, I or others in the West believe them? The 'actual validity' of a casus belli has never really counted for much.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    The difference is that, if they actually did start manufacturing the bomb, China would almost certainly be able to provide incontrovertible evidence. If they didn't provide evidence, yes, we coule refute it. The West will pretend that Taiwan wasn't doing that anyways. That's why I said 80%.
    - BrazzVuvuzela 5y ago
      > Not capable of being denied, challenged, or disputed; closed to questioning. There is no such thing as incontrovertible evidence.
      - sudosysgen 5y ago
        Of course there is. Of course the West would still try to dispute it, but just like how the world saw through WMDs in Iraq if present with adequate evidence they would see through a thin denial.
        BrazzVuvuzela 5y ago
        > Of course the West would still try to dispute it Yeah, that's what I just said. > the world saw through WMDs in Iraq And Iraq got bombed anyway, it's a great example of how the actual validity of a casus belli doesn't matter.
        sudosysgen 5y ago
        >Yeah, that's what I just said. In that case I don't see how we disagree. Of course it does matter. The invalidity is why the entire world was opposed to the US doing so. If the US wasn't in such a dominant economic and strategic position at the time it would have had to pay a much larger price.
        BrazzVuvuzela 5y ago
        My sub-point is America would deny the validity of China's invasion of Taiwan regardless of whether China's accusations against Taiwan were accurate or not, meaning the accuracy of such accusations isn't relevant. The outcome is the same. People in the EU might roll their eyes and say "ackshully china is right and taiwan really is making nuclear weapons", just as they once rolled their eyes at America's bogus claims about Iraq, but what would/did that change? A fat lot of nothing. But my main point is that if Taiwan wants nuclear weapons they can make their own, so there is no sense in America giving nuclear weapons to Taiwan. And if America did, that would provide China with 'valid' casus belli anyway. I think PRC spies would be no less aware of plans to import nuclear weapons than plans to make them.
        sudosysgen 5y ago
eunos 5y ago
One reason why China didnt protest a lot about US invasion to Iraq during Bush era is because they shared the WMD casus belli. Would be nice if China can use the same casus belli for the unification.
ed_balls 5y ago
If China would discover they are developing nuclear weapon they may choose to attack. There is a rumor that Taiwan has rockets that are targeting Three Gorges Dam. In case of an invasion they may choose to destroy them which would result in millions of deaths of deaths. Nuclear weapons not needed.

sudosysgen 5y ago

You're forgetting about Chinese intelligence. It would never work once the Chinese notice and it would only provide an actually valid casus belli

BrazzVuvuzela 5y ago
China could accuse Taiwan of developing nuclear weapons today, saying their spies uncovered the plot. Would you, I or anybody else be able to refute it? Would our doubt matter? And if Taiwan really did start manufacturing nuclear bombs and China was telling the truth about it, would you, I or others in the West believe them? The 'actual validity' of a casus belli has never really counted for much.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  The difference is that, if they actually did start manufacturing the bomb, China would almost certainly be able to provide incontrovertible evidence. If they didn't provide evidence, yes, we coule refute it. The West will pretend that Taiwan wasn't doing that anyways. That's why I said 80%.
  - BrazzVuvuzela 5y ago
    > Not capable of being denied, challenged, or disputed; closed to questioning. There is no such thing as incontrovertible evidence.
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      Of course there is. Of course the West would still try to dispute it, but just like how the world saw through WMDs in Iraq if present with adequate evidence they would see through a thin denial.
      - BrazzVuvuzela 5y ago
        > Of course the West would still try to dispute it Yeah, that's what I just said. > the world saw through WMDs in Iraq And Iraq got bombed anyway, it's a great example of how the actual validity of a casus belli doesn't matter.
        sudosysgen 5y ago
        >Yeah, that's what I just said. In that case I don't see how we disagree. Of course it does matter. The invalidity is why the entire world was opposed to the US doing so. If the US wasn't in such a dominant economic and strategic position at the time it would have had to pay a much larger price.
        BrazzVuvuzela 5y ago
        My sub-point is America would deny the validity of China's invasion of Taiwan regardless of whether China's accusations against Taiwan were accurate or not, meaning the accuracy of such accusations isn't relevant. The outcome is the same. People in the EU might roll their eyes and say "ackshully china is right and taiwan really is making nuclear weapons", just as they once rolled their eyes at America's bogus claims about Iraq, but what would/did that change? A fat lot of nothing. But my main point is that if Taiwan wants nuclear weapons they can make their own, so there is no sense in America giving nuclear weapons to Taiwan. And if America did, that would provide China with 'valid' casus belli anyway. I think PRC spies would be no less aware of plans to import nuclear weapons than plans to make them.
        sudosysgen 5y ago

eunos 5y ago

One reason why China didnt protest a lot about US invasion to Iraq during Bush era is because they shared the WMD casus belli. Would be nice if China can use the same casus belli for the unification.

ed_balls 5y ago

If China would discover they are developing nuclear weapon they may choose to attack. There is a rumor that Taiwan has rockets that are targeting Three Gorges Dam. In case of an invasion they may choose to destroy them which would result in millions of deaths of deaths. Nuclear weapons not needed.