A recession seems pretty obvious. And corresponding correction in 2022 if you think through the macro picture logically. We injected 4T of fiscal stimulus ove

A recession seems pretty obvious. And corresponding correction in 2022 if you think through the macro picture logically. We injected 4T of fiscal stimulus over ~2 years, which is about to completely end over the next two months (though some programs already over). A large amount of corporate earnings growth was due to distortions in consumer income, which fed into retail sales. Personal Income: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PI Retail sales have been about 20% elevated from a very smooth and consistent trend since the pandemic hit: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS (This chart alone is enough to understand the inflation situation, the quickness and magnitude of the increase is unreal) So we inject 4T in stimulus at one pont in time, why would we extrapolate the impact of that in perpetuity? It seems pretty obvious a large portion of that money will end up in low velocity places and thus the higher goods sales won't be maintained. In the next two months, the child tax credit will expire, and student loan payments will resume. This amounts to close to 30B/month in effective consumer income that will disappear essentially overnight. There will certainly be a recession/earnings recession next year due to these factors. An alternative outcome is that the one time fiscal injection led to excess liquidity trading hands, thus we have persistently high inflation and new normal of earnings is maintained through deflated value of currency. But in this scenario the Fed must tighten much more aggressively, which leads to the same result. There are many perma-bears out there that call doom without sufficiently specific reasoning, but in this case the macro picture looks very clear and easy to predict. The market doesn't appear to be pricing it in, however. If you disagree, what logical mechanism could explain an alternative outcome?