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Yeah it is pretty dire news really. Recent experience in Australia demonstrates that vaccines, especially when fresh, work really well to control the spread of

Yeah it is pretty dire news really. Recent experience in Australia demonstrates that vaccines, especially when fresh, work really well to control the spread of Delta. But it looks like Omicron just cuts straight through that protection. A silver lining here is that none of 70 odd people infected were hospitalised. It is plausible the vaccines provided protection from hospitalisation here, but there are better ways that will be measured in coming days/weeks.

christkv 5y ago
Omicron looks like it might have changed the nature of the infection from a lower respiratory infection to an upper respiratory one leading to less serious infections. Let’s hope they are right.
- riffraff 5y ago
  Do you have a source for this? Everything I've read about omicron until now is "we don't know".
  - _y5hn 5y ago
    It was in news. It is indicated, meaning "looks like it, but we need more data to confirm thoroughly".
  - mormegil 5y ago
    As Noah Smith wrote: [0] > it’s easy to delude ourselves into unreasoning optimism in the face of an onrushing threat. It will still be weeks or even months before we know for sure whether Omicron is a step in the hoped-for transformation of Covid into yet another common cold virus, or whether it’s just another deadly super-variant. But interestingly, there is now some research showing a possible mechanism by which Omicron might be both more contagious and less harmful. A new study from the University of Hong Kong shows that Omicron replicates much more quickly than Delta in the upper airways, but much less quickly in the lungs, where Covid does its real damage. The study: https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-c... [0]: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/omicron-update-inflation-update https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/omicron-update-inflation-u...
  - NicoJuicy 5y ago
    Previous research from Hong Kong mentioned this information. Spreads less in the lung, much more in the nose. Not: this is lab info ( = no human protection kicking in. The title is kinda sensational because of that) https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=press_release https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-c...
unlikelymordant 5y ago
Indeed. Unfortunately theres a 2 week delay between a peak in infections, and the peak in hospitalisations. So we'll find out the effect of todays caseload in 2 weeks, unfortunately omicron has a doubling time of between 1.5 and 3 days, so 2 weeks from now its gonna be much worse. I really hope the info about lower hospitalisation rates is correct (across all age groups), or hospitals or gonna be smashed with cases.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
bsaul 5y ago
it could actually be even worse : because of the large number of vaccinated people, it could be very possible that the variant actually spreads more on vaccinated people than non-vaccinated ones (saw a stats on that, but the numbers were too low to prove anything). ADE is still a very possible scenario.
- prohobo 5y ago
  How does ADE come into this when it's just about transmission? From what I understood, ADE is mostly about severity of illness, and the severity looks to be down across the board.
  - bsaul 5y ago
    i could be using the wrong term. Saw a researcher's work on that (aka : vaccine inducing easier spread of omikron) and thought it was the same as ADE, but i could be wrong.
nnx 5y ago
Even more of a silver lining, according to South African data (and the median age <40yo at this party), it is likely there would be no hospitalisations regardless of vaccination status…
animal531 5y ago
No, stay calm. Here in South Africa the spread is higher than in any other wave and we also have very low percentages of vaccinations. But even so hospitalizations and deaths have been negligible. When hospitalized it's usually only for a quick stay, and deaths are basically at the same levels as for flu. The hope now is that it really spreads and becomes even milder, while protecting against the more deadly strains by displacing them.
- lottin 5y ago
  I agree. For all we know, it seems covid has mutated into a common cold virus.
  - ImaCake 5y ago
    1 in a 100 people hospitalised is not the common cold. Those are still worse numbers than the flu. Sure, it probably won't make you very sick, but at a population level omicron is still a disaster.
- divbzero 5y ago
  The Health Minister reported that South Africa saw 1.7% hospitalisation in the second week of the omicron wave vs. 19% hospitalisation in the same week of the delta wave [1]. Hoping the trend towards milder disease continues to pan out. [1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-...
rajup 5y ago
I’m really confused that no one being hospitalized is “just a silver lining”.

christkv 5y ago

Omicron looks like it might have changed the nature of the infection from a lower respiratory infection to an upper respiratory one leading to less serious infections. Let’s hope they are right.

riffraff 5y ago
Do you have a source for this? Everything I've read about omicron until now is "we don't know".
- _y5hn 5y ago
  It was in news. It is indicated, meaning "looks like it, but we need more data to confirm thoroughly".
- mormegil 5y ago
  As Noah Smith wrote: [0] > it’s easy to delude ourselves into unreasoning optimism in the face of an onrushing threat. It will still be weeks or even months before we know for sure whether Omicron is a step in the hoped-for transformation of Covid into yet another common cold virus, or whether it’s just another deadly super-variant. But interestingly, there is now some research showing a possible mechanism by which Omicron might be both more contagious and less harmful. A new study from the University of Hong Kong shows that Omicron replicates much more quickly than Delta in the upper airways, but much less quickly in the lungs, where Covid does its real damage. The study: https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-c... [0]: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/omicron-update-inflation-update https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/omicron-update-inflation-u...
- NicoJuicy 5y ago
  Previous research from Hong Kong mentioned this information. Spreads less in the lung, much more in the nose. Not: this is lab info ( = no human protection kicking in. The title is kinda sensational because of that) https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=press_release https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-c...

unlikelymordant 5y ago

Indeed. Unfortunately theres a 2 week delay between a peak in infections, and the peak in hospitalisations. So we'll find out the effect of todays caseload in 2 weeks, unfortunately omicron has a doubling time of between 1.5 and 3 days, so 2 weeks from now its gonna be much worse. I really hope the info about lower hospitalisation rates is correct (across all age groups), or hospitals or gonna be smashed with cases.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

bsaul 5y ago

it could actually be even worse : because of the large number of vaccinated people, it could be very possible that the variant actually spreads more on vaccinated people than non-vaccinated ones (saw a stats on that, but the numbers were too low to prove anything). ADE is still a very possible scenario.

prohobo 5y ago
How does ADE come into this when it's just about transmission? From what I understood, ADE is mostly about severity of illness, and the severity looks to be down across the board.
- bsaul 5y ago
  i could be using the wrong term. Saw a researcher's work on that (aka : vaccine inducing easier spread of omikron) and thought it was the same as ADE, but i could be wrong.

nnx 5y ago

Even more of a silver lining, according to South African data (and the median age <40yo at this party), it is likely there would be no hospitalisations regardless of vaccination status…

animal531 5y ago

No, stay calm. Here in South Africa the spread is higher than in any other wave and we also have very low percentages of vaccinations. But even so hospitalizations and deaths have been negligible. When hospitalized it's usually only for a quick stay, and deaths are basically at the same levels as for flu. The hope now is that it really spreads and becomes even milder, while protecting against the more deadly strains by displacing them.

lottin 5y ago
I agree. For all we know, it seems covid has mutated into a common cold virus.
- ImaCake 5y ago
  1 in a 100 people hospitalised is not the common cold. Those are still worse numbers than the flu. Sure, it probably won't make you very sick, but at a population level omicron is still a disaster.
divbzero 5y ago
The Health Minister reported that South Africa saw 1.7% hospitalisation in the second week of the omicron wave vs. 19% hospitalisation in the same week of the delta wave [1]. Hoping the trend towards milder disease continues to pan out. [1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-...

rajup 5y ago

I’m really confused that no one being hospitalized is “just a silver lining”.