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> China remains quite poor on per capita GDP, even on a PPP basis it is in the lower half of countries. This is exactly why China has such a huge growth ahead.

> China remains quite poor on per capita GDP, even on a PPP basis it is in the lower half of countries. This is exactly why China has such a huge growth ahead. Just to get to the level of countries like Australia this will make their economy several times the size of US.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
China’s population is already too old and their total fertility rate decline too steep for the growth you’re arguing for to occur.
- coliveira 5y ago
  Certainly not as old as Europe, so they'll probably get at least to that level.
- coliveira 5y ago
  By the way, US fertility rate is 1.63, far lower than the replacement rate of 2. This means that the US is also under a generational population decline.
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    China’s official fertility rate is 1.7, but there is evidence they’re (of course) lying about the data and it’s closer to 1.3 [1]. The US can support a lower total fertility rate with immigration and its existing wealth and dollar reserve status. China cannot. [1] https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/04/china-one-child-policy-fertility-rates/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/04/china-one-child-policy-...
    - surge 5y ago
      Yeah it doesn't help there's like a 1:3 female to male ratio, even if they wanted to meet replacement rate, thanks to one child policy incentivizing parents get abortions or committing infanticide until they had a son, they don't have enough wombs to go around. A lot of angry desperate young males though, which is causing different societal problems, kidnappings of females from other countries, etc.
    - coliveira 5y ago
      This cuts both ways. The problem is that the US is already developed and the lower fertility rate will only keep up what they have. China has a lot of people who are, in this generation, coming out of poverty, and this will continue for decades, until the possible downsides of fertility show up. Moreover, the US is changing its immigration policies exactly at the moment they need it most, which seems to be another tragic mistake.

toomuchtodo 5y ago

China’s population is already too old and their total fertility rate decline too steep for the growth you’re arguing for to occur.

coliveira 5y ago
Certainly not as old as Europe, so they'll probably get at least to that level.
coliveira 5y ago
By the way, US fertility rate is 1.63, far lower than the replacement rate of 2. This means that the US is also under a generational population decline.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  China’s official fertility rate is 1.7, but there is evidence they’re (of course) lying about the data and it’s closer to 1.3 [1]. The US can support a lower total fertility rate with immigration and its existing wealth and dollar reserve status. China cannot. [1] https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/04/china-one-child-policy-fertility-rates/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/04/china-one-child-policy-...
  - surge 5y ago
    Yeah it doesn't help there's like a 1:3 female to male ratio, even if they wanted to meet replacement rate, thanks to one child policy incentivizing parents get abortions or committing infanticide until they had a son, they don't have enough wombs to go around. A lot of angry desperate young males though, which is causing different societal problems, kidnappings of females from other countries, etc.
  - coliveira 5y ago
    This cuts both ways. The problem is that the US is already developed and the lower fertility rate will only keep up what they have. China has a lot of people who are, in this generation, coming out of poverty, and this will continue for decades, until the possible downsides of fertility show up. Moreover, the US is changing its immigration policies exactly at the moment they need it most, which seems to be another tragic mistake.