I've been appreciating some people's practice of giving subjective probability estimates for various things depending on the strength of the evidence; see e.g.

I've been appreciating some people's practice of giving subjective probability estimates for various things depending on the strength of the evidence; see e.g. the "Probability Updates" section of this article: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/16/omicron-post-7/#probability-updates https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/16/omicron-post-7/#prob... Probably a well-functioning prediction market would do it better, though I'm not sure our prediction markets today are there yet.