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Actually, if a majority of Omicron cases are indeed mild, the only thing keeping the pandemic going is the reporting of 'case numbers' for the sake of maintaini

Actually, if a majority of Omicron cases are indeed mild, the only thing keeping the pandemic going is the reporting of 'case numbers' for the sake of maintaining attention. Which we could do for the common cold and cause panic with all the 'cases' spreading like wildfire... Otherwise, please show this evidence for retained high hospitalisation in young people from a mild strain

SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
> a majority of Omicron cases are indeed mild ... all the 'cases' spreading like wildfire The assumption is that "milder cases, less hospitalisation" cancels out "spreading like wildfire, more transmissible" But that's not the mathematics of it. Less hospitalisation per case means e.g., halve the hospitalisation rate. "more transmissible" means faster exponential growth. So one extra doubling cancels out the halving, and then keeps going. Similarly: y = 1/2 x ^ 3 will rapidly get much larger than y = 2 x ^ 2 as x increases.
- headsoup 5y ago
  Except what is your assumption for hospitalisation % in the more transmissible variant based on? If it's for example 0.1% (remembering hospitalisation is already only something like 2-5% with Delta - as a 'with covid' ), that's an immense increase in transmission required considering for population density allowing such numbers, previous infections in the at-risk population and seasonal impact etc. And you didn't answer the second bit.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
    > Except what is your assumption for hospitalisation % in the more transmissible variant based on? "half" is not an assumption at all, it's an illustrative example. By the way, "e.g." is short for "example". Now, 50% is a plausible figure, but no-one really knows yet. There is no real figure yet. 0.1% (assuming you start at 2%, that's a 20-fold reduction) ... I find that closer to the outer limits of plausibility, but YMMV on what you find plausible. IMHO we'd be lucky, very lucky to have anything like that. You can hope, but as they say "hope is not a plan". What's _also_ plausible is that Omicron is not less virulent _at all_ in itself, but that South Africa's better experience this time around is due to protection due to prior infection (very common there) and vaccination (less common, but still over 25%, and more likely among the more vulnerable), and improved treatments. Reported here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/omicron-gets-around-previous-covid-infection-u-k-study-warns https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/omicron-g... https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-seeing-slight-increase-covid-19-deaths-off-low-base-2021-12-17/ https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-seeing-sli... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/17/covid-omicron-south-africa-vaccinations/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/17/covid-omicro... https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-12-17-forste-omikron-erfaringer-far-laeger-til-at-frygte-mange-indlagte https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-12-17-forste-omikron-erf... > And you didn't answer the second bit. My apologies, I thought that this was more like a conversation and less like an exam. The mechanism is the maths described, the evidence one way or the other will come about in a few weeks.
    - alisonkisk 5y ago
      "example" doesnt mean "fiction". In means a concrete case for reference.
    - headsoup 5y ago
      Sorry, not assumption then. Same point though, I could take a different example number for a wildly different result. And so, if Africa is doing well because of prior infection, why the hell are we madly rushing to vaccination (that continues to fail at each mutation) if actually getting infected is giving the desired longer term outcome (and there doesn't appear to be reports of widespread mass mortality in Africa to date, at the least no worse than other nations)?
      - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
        > I could take a different example number for a wildly different result. The actual point of contrasting a constant reduction with an exponential increase is that no, it does not work like that. You can take some quite different example numbers and get a broadly similar result. Top comment here has it right (put in the language of computer science): "Even if hospitalisation rates are a small constant factor lower, doesn’t everyone remember from CS101 that O(k^x) is bad news ... constant factor ain’t gonna save your assignment once the problem size grows just a little more." https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29622438 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29622438 > And so, if Africa is doing well because of prior infection, why the hell are we madly rushing to vaccination because population immunity gained through a huge number of prior infections, is gained at a far higher cost in lives ,than population immunity gained through a huge number of vaccinations given. That's an obvious given. > (and there doesn't appear to be reports of widespread mass mortality in Africa to date Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, especially with modern media bubbles. How deeply have you looked for this data? Don't expect this to be a top story in the US or Europe, it never is. FYI, here it a bit of it: https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1472561150097342464 https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1472561150097342464 Whole thread is good.
        headsoup 5y ago

SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago

> a majority of Omicron cases are indeed mild ... all the 'cases' spreading like wildfire The assumption is that "milder cases, less hospitalisation" cancels out "spreading like wildfire, more transmissible" But that's not the mathematics of it. Less hospitalisation per case means e.g., halve the hospitalisation rate. "more transmissible" means faster exponential growth. So one extra doubling cancels out the halving, and then keeps going. Similarly: y = 1/2 x ^ 3 will rapidly get much larger than y = 2 x ^ 2 as x increases.

headsoup 5y ago
Except what is your assumption for hospitalisation % in the more transmissible variant based on? If it's for example 0.1% (remembering hospitalisation is already only something like 2-5% with Delta - as a 'with covid' ), that's an immense increase in transmission required considering for population density allowing such numbers, previous infections in the at-risk population and seasonal impact etc. And you didn't answer the second bit.
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  > Except what is your assumption for hospitalisation % in the more transmissible variant based on? "half" is not an assumption at all, it's an illustrative example. By the way, "e.g." is short for "example". Now, 50% is a plausible figure, but no-one really knows yet. There is no real figure yet. 0.1% (assuming you start at 2%, that's a 20-fold reduction) ... I find that closer to the outer limits of plausibility, but YMMV on what you find plausible. IMHO we'd be lucky, very lucky to have anything like that. You can hope, but as they say "hope is not a plan". What's _also_ plausible is that Omicron is not less virulent _at all_ in itself, but that South Africa's better experience this time around is due to protection due to prior infection (very common there) and vaccination (less common, but still over 25%, and more likely among the more vulnerable), and improved treatments. Reported here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/omicron-gets-around-previous-covid-infection-u-k-study-warns https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/omicron-g... https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-seeing-slight-increase-covid-19-deaths-off-low-base-2021-12-17/ https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-seeing-sli... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/17/covid-omicron-south-africa-vaccinations/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/17/covid-omicro... https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-12-17-forste-omikron-erfaringer-far-laeger-til-at-frygte-mange-indlagte https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-12-17-forste-omikron-erf... > And you didn't answer the second bit. My apologies, I thought that this was more like a conversation and less like an exam. The mechanism is the maths described, the evidence one way or the other will come about in a few weeks.
  - alisonkisk 5y ago
    "example" doesnt mean "fiction". In means a concrete case for reference.
  - headsoup 5y ago
    Sorry, not assumption then. Same point though, I could take a different example number for a wildly different result. And so, if Africa is doing well because of prior infection, why the hell are we madly rushing to vaccination (that continues to fail at each mutation) if actually getting infected is giving the desired longer term outcome (and there doesn't appear to be reports of widespread mass mortality in Africa to date, at the least no worse than other nations)?
    - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
      > I could take a different example number for a wildly different result. The actual point of contrasting a constant reduction with an exponential increase is that no, it does not work like that. You can take some quite different example numbers and get a broadly similar result. Top comment here has it right (put in the language of computer science): "Even if hospitalisation rates are a small constant factor lower, doesn’t everyone remember from CS101 that O(k^x) is bad news ... constant factor ain’t gonna save your assignment once the problem size grows just a little more." https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29622438 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29622438 > And so, if Africa is doing well because of prior infection, why the hell are we madly rushing to vaccination because population immunity gained through a huge number of prior infections, is gained at a far higher cost in lives ,than population immunity gained through a huge number of vaccinations given. That's an obvious given. > (and there doesn't appear to be reports of widespread mass mortality in Africa to date Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, especially with modern media bubbles. How deeply have you looked for this data? Don't expect this to be a top story in the US or Europe, it never is. FYI, here it a bit of it: https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1472561150097342464 https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1472561150097342464 Whole thread is good.
      - headsoup 5y ago