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Ah, the Phillips curve. I recommend you make some charts for yourself comparing US unemployment figures with CPI inflation and see if you can spot the curve. h
by mellavora 5y ago
Ah, the Phillips curve. I recommend you make some charts for yourself comparing US unemployment figures with CPI inflation and see if you can spot the curve.
hint: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110404.htm https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110404.htm
spoiler: " there is in fact no strong "tradeoff" between unemployment and general price inflation, and almost certainly not an exploitable one. The Phillips Curve is essentially a statement that lower unemployment is associated with higher inflation in real wages. The strategy of accepting higher inflation in hopes of achieving lower unemployment (which is the basis of Bernanke's policy efforts) not only drops the phrase "real wages" but reverses the direction of cause and effect. "
Also, it has clearly not been transitory for most of 2021. The "transitory" claim was backed partly by the pandemic, but relied on a 1-year lag. If, however, you used a 2-year lag (thus eliminating pandemic effects...
- habitue 5y agoI was just explaining what the Fed's public reasoning has been. I am not knowledgeable enough to comment on the correctness of the theory.