3 ms·

Yes it’s a dangerous precedent. So we need to quantify the relative dangers. Hundreds of thousands, and potentially many millions of dead Americans one one hand

by simonh 5y ago

Yes it’s a dangerous precedent. So we need to quantify the relative dangers. Hundreds of thousands, and potentially many millions of dead Americans one one hand right now, against a precedent that might be abused in future in theory. It depends how much confidence we have in democracy in America. The US had a debate and had elections even during the pandemic. Decisions about these issues are being made at state and federal level, informed by broad and local public opinion. That’s the system working.

reindeer76 5y ago
>Hundreds of thousands, and potentially many millions of dead Americans one one hand right now whose average age is greater than the life expectancy. But sure, let's discard our free society to prolong their lives by a bit. If history tells us anything, it's that free society is a stable attractor, so I'm sure we'll get it back in no time, right guys?
- simonh 5y ago
  The analysis on years of life lost, including reduced life expectancy in those with long covid, has actually been done. >Conclusion: More than 28 million excess years of life were lost in 2020 in 31 countries, with a higher rate in men than women. Yes the chances of young people dying is individually very low, and gets tiny for the very young, but for example in Brazil it’s estimated that about 500 babies died due to complications from coronavirus exposure, and many thousands of toddlers. Those small percentages, multiplied by big enough numbers, still add up.
  - reindeer76 5y ago
    28 million years of life lost in 31 countries whose population appears to add up to over 1 billion people. So what are we talking about here, maybe like 2 weeks each? Which is optimistic -- because personally I believe most of the restrictions have a very small effect. Roughly that many people were going to die anyway, whether we did Sweden's approach or Austria's approach or anywhere in between. Well - good god, I'm really looking forward to those extra 2 weeks of my life. They will be amazing. It will definitely make up for spending my entire youth, and possibly my entire life, in a hellish surveillance state where you aren't allowed to go to school or see your family and you have to show your papers to enter a restaurant. SO WORTH IT, right?
    - simonh 5y ago
      Right, that’s the loss of life _with_ lockdowns, mass vaccinations, etc. we’ve successfully managed to limit the damage to much, much, much lower levels than it would have been otherwise. It’s been a huge success, compared to an unrestricted or minimally constrained propagation of the virus.
      - reindeer76 5y ago
        Sweden.
        walterbell 5y ago
        I wish we had open-source flowcharts for common debate talking points. Each could be linked to several dozen HN sub-threads where similar points were made by both sides, ending in a handful of common termination nodes. Once a flowchart exists and has been proven reusable, it could be condensed into a comic, meme or other visual mnemonic. If would also be easier to place new studies into the context of previous debates. With repetitive graphs out of the way, discussion could focus on more nuanced points.
      - adevx 5y ago
        That's a huge assumption. Given how well Sweden has done with limited lockdowns [0] one could also jump to conclusions that lockdowns have prolonged and exacerbated a situation that would otherwise have fizzled out with herd immunity. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-07-05..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=NLD~BEL~SWE~NOR~FIN~DNK https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
        maneesh 5y ago
        Even Florida it seems these days
        simonh 5y ago
GoblinSlayer 5y ago
>informed by broad and local public opinion Does it happen with censorship?
waihtis 5y ago
What do I care about the US system as an European? I certainly haven't had a single chance to vote about any issue regarding COVID, these have all been top-down decisions.
Ekaros 5y ago
> and potentially many millions of dead Americans one one hand right now, Millions? Where does that number come from?
tomjen3 5y ago
>It depends how much confidence we have in democracy in America. After Hunter Bidens laptop story got removed from everywhere, there can be no doubt that the only correct answer to to that question is negative infinity.

by simonh 5y ago

reindeer76 5y ago

>Hundreds of thousands, and potentially many millions of dead Americans one one hand right now whose average age is greater than the life expectancy. But sure, let's discard our free society to prolong their lives by a bit. If history tells us anything, it's that free society is a stable attractor, so I'm sure we'll get it back in no time, right guys?

simonh 5y ago
The analysis on years of life lost, including reduced life expectancy in those with long covid, has actually been done. >Conclusion: More than 28 million excess years of life were lost in 2020 in 31 countries, with a higher rate in men than women. Yes the chances of young people dying is individually very low, and gets tiny for the very young, but for example in Brazil it’s estimated that about 500 babies died due to complications from coronavirus exposure, and many thousands of toddlers. Those small percentages, multiplied by big enough numbers, still add up.
- reindeer76 5y ago
  28 million years of life lost in 31 countries whose population appears to add up to over 1 billion people. So what are we talking about here, maybe like 2 weeks each? Which is optimistic -- because personally I believe most of the restrictions have a very small effect. Roughly that many people were going to die anyway, whether we did Sweden's approach or Austria's approach or anywhere in between. Well - good god, I'm really looking forward to those extra 2 weeks of my life. They will be amazing. It will definitely make up for spending my entire youth, and possibly my entire life, in a hellish surveillance state where you aren't allowed to go to school or see your family and you have to show your papers to enter a restaurant. SO WORTH IT, right?
  - simonh 5y ago
    Right, that’s the loss of life _with_ lockdowns, mass vaccinations, etc. we’ve successfully managed to limit the damage to much, much, much lower levels than it would have been otherwise. It’s been a huge success, compared to an unrestricted or minimally constrained propagation of the virus.
    - reindeer76 5y ago
      Sweden.
      - walterbell 5y ago
        I wish we had open-source flowcharts for common debate talking points. Each could be linked to several dozen HN sub-threads where similar points were made by both sides, ending in a handful of common termination nodes. Once a flowchart exists and has been proven reusable, it could be condensed into a comic, meme or other visual mnemonic. If would also be easier to place new studies into the context of previous debates. With repetitive graphs out of the way, discussion could focus on more nuanced points.
    - adevx 5y ago
      That's a huge assumption. Given how well Sweden has done with limited lockdowns [0] one could also jump to conclusions that lockdowns have prolonged and exacerbated a situation that would otherwise have fizzled out with herd immunity. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-07-05..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=NLD~BEL~SWE~NOR~FIN~DNK https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
      - maneesh 5y ago
        Even Florida it seems these days
      - simonh 5y ago

GoblinSlayer 5y ago

>informed by broad and local public opinion Does it happen with censorship?

waihtis 5y ago

What do I care about the US system as an European? I certainly haven't had a single chance to vote about any issue regarding COVID, these have all been top-down decisions.

Ekaros 5y ago

> and potentially many millions of dead Americans one one hand right now, Millions? Where does that number come from?

tomjen3 5y ago

>It depends how much confidence we have in democracy in America. After Hunter Bidens laptop story got removed from everywhere, there can be no doubt that the only correct answer to to that question is negative infinity.