4 ms·

I usually use a word like "guess" to describe a prior that sounds plausible but hasn't been confirmed: "Our best guess is that the moon is made of green cheese

I usually use a word like "guess" to describe a prior that sounds plausible but hasn't been confirmed: "Our best guess is that the moon is made of green cheese" or "Our best guess is that jumping out of a plane without a parachute would kill you, but there has not been a formal study"

salawat 5y ago
There actually has been a formal double blind study on whether jumping out of planes with parachutes save lives. The result found no life saving correlation, but suffered from other experimental problems. Study did not get "off the ground" so to speak due to lack of participants agreeing to participate in the at height part due to reluctance to accept the risk of being in the placebo'd control group.