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Correct me if I am wrong but the more I digged into this story more I find it is much more nuanced than this. So briefly here is what I think had happened: -

Correct me if I am wrong but the more I digged into this story more I find it is much more nuanced than this. So briefly here is what I think had happened: - Russia had a huge strategic deal to sell Germany petroleum and natural gas. This was years of diplomatic work and finally got to the point where this looked like a reality. - The settlement of the above deal would be in EUR bypassing the typical petrodollar settlement. - Ukraine was proposed to be added to NATO by US and other allies. - Russia started moving troops to Ukraine. - the above mentioned deal with Germany is now under question. One has to wonder if the last three points are correlated and second and the third points are correlated i.e. to keep the petrodollar dominance US is crafting this conflict by adding Ukraine to NATO.

varjag 5y ago
Yes, you are wrong. USSR (and then Russia) were selling gas via existing lines to Western Europe since 1970s. The new pipeline is a bypass around Ukraine to remove any leverage against an invasion. Ukraine would love to join NATO (and no, you are not proposed there by other countries that's not how it works). However the US and other allies have cold feet to avoid pissing off Putin.
- mercy_dude 5y ago
  Fair but you are not arguing why the events are not to be thought of being correlated. So if the natural gas deal with Germany is settled in EUR that seems to be a good enough reason to piss US off and start a proxy war. Why is the momentum for getting Ukraine to EU so strong now?
  - varjag 5y ago
    EUR (unlike say China's RMB, Cuban pesos or whatever they have in NK for money) is a freely convertible currency. Can you explain the mechanism by which settlements in Euros undermine anything, such that three (mutually confrontational) US administrations engage into conspiracy against Mother Russia? (For the reference, the old pipeline gas was also paid for in Euros) As to momentum for Ukraine ascension to NATO, I would love to live in that reality. Over here, Germany, France and several other NATO members strongly oppose even allowing Ukraine onto the roadmap.
    - mercy_dude 5y ago
      Settlement in a non reserve currency sets a precedence for other countries to follow the suit (for example Russia, China and India) to settle using their own currencies and therefore threatens USD monopoly. For example China is already doing the same thing with Iran outside the SWIFT system. Without foreigners buying US treasuries to fund the ever increasing US sovereign debt, the US treasury will increasingly have to rely on Federal Reserve monetizing their social security and other deficits and eventually prompting a collapse of USD as a reserve currency and runaway inflation since that will make USD worthless at its face value. I would argue this will happen someday regardless but this just makes it happen sooner. Especially at a time when debt is exploding, printer is still on, and GDP isn’t exactly growing. I think Germany opposed the reality of Ukraine being in NATO because they understood the reality that this pisses off Russia, their large natural gas provider which benefits no one at this point especially in a world where US sphere of influence isn’t exactly as big as it used to be. Just look at how it all panned out in Afghanistan and Yemen.
    - pandaman 5y ago
      "Currency conversion" is not free. If a deal is to be settled in the USD then it means that the buyer is likely to acquire USD directly (by selling something for USD or taking loans in USD) and the seller is likely to spend the USD, skipping any conversion and strengthening the USD. Likewise, if the deal is to be settled in EUR the same is applied to the EUR and strengthens the EUR while weakening the USD.
LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
Reminds me of https://theecologist.org/2016/mar/14/why-qaddafi-had-go-african-gold-oil-and-challenge-monetary-imperialism https://theecologist.org/2016/mar/14/why-qaddafi-had-go-afri... Same thing for Hussein.

varjag 5y ago

Yes, you are wrong. USSR (and then Russia) were selling gas via existing lines to Western Europe since 1970s. The new pipeline is a bypass around Ukraine to remove any leverage against an invasion. Ukraine would love to join NATO (and no, you are not proposed there by other countries that's not how it works). However the US and other allies have cold feet to avoid pissing off Putin.

mercy_dude 5y ago
Fair but you are not arguing why the events are not to be thought of being correlated. So if the natural gas deal with Germany is settled in EUR that seems to be a good enough reason to piss US off and start a proxy war. Why is the momentum for getting Ukraine to EU so strong now?
- varjag 5y ago
  EUR (unlike say China's RMB, Cuban pesos or whatever they have in NK for money) is a freely convertible currency. Can you explain the mechanism by which settlements in Euros undermine anything, such that three (mutually confrontational) US administrations engage into conspiracy against Mother Russia? (For the reference, the old pipeline gas was also paid for in Euros) As to momentum for Ukraine ascension to NATO, I would love to live in that reality. Over here, Germany, France and several other NATO members strongly oppose even allowing Ukraine onto the roadmap.
  - mercy_dude 5y ago
    Settlement in a non reserve currency sets a precedence for other countries to follow the suit (for example Russia, China and India) to settle using their own currencies and therefore threatens USD monopoly. For example China is already doing the same thing with Iran outside the SWIFT system. Without foreigners buying US treasuries to fund the ever increasing US sovereign debt, the US treasury will increasingly have to rely on Federal Reserve monetizing their social security and other deficits and eventually prompting a collapse of USD as a reserve currency and runaway inflation since that will make USD worthless at its face value. I would argue this will happen someday regardless but this just makes it happen sooner. Especially at a time when debt is exploding, printer is still on, and GDP isn’t exactly growing. I think Germany opposed the reality of Ukraine being in NATO because they understood the reality that this pisses off Russia, their large natural gas provider which benefits no one at this point especially in a world where US sphere of influence isn’t exactly as big as it used to be. Just look at how it all panned out in Afghanistan and Yemen.
  - pandaman 5y ago
    "Currency conversion" is not free. If a deal is to be settled in the USD then it means that the buyer is likely to acquire USD directly (by selling something for USD or taking loans in USD) and the seller is likely to spend the USD, skipping any conversion and strengthening the USD. Likewise, if the deal is to be settled in EUR the same is applied to the EUR and strengthens the EUR while weakening the USD.

LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago

Reminds me of https://theecologist.org/2016/mar/14/why-qaddafi-had-go-african-gold-oil-and-challenge-monetary-imperialism https://theecologist.org/2016/mar/14/why-qaddafi-had-go-afri... Same thing for Hussein.