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Just a note, while Baltic banks are well integrated into the EU (especially after the Danske bank scandal and others before it made integration with Russia poli

Just a note, while Baltic banks are well integrated into the EU (especially after the Danske bank scandal and others before it made integration with Russia politically toxic) the energy grid of the region is still very tied into Russia which is of a critical concern right now (see EU energy prices and issues with the harmonization across the union). I will also have a very negative posture on the EU military spending/capability unfortunately after working for a Baltic government and being familiar at a high level at capabilities in the region and somewhat familiar of Germany/France. In the EU today now that Britain has left, France is the only real military power who has 1) the forces to deploy and 2) the will to do so. German forces are in a terrible state of disrepair and the new government does not seem like one to invest further (Ulrike Franke has a great writeup and is worth a twitter follow) and even the old gov is under fire for blocking military aid as they have supported nonlethal NATO equipping only to Ukraine, I would guess partially because they are addicted to Russian gas but there are some rumors that Merkel will join some Russia affiliated boards (gotta love a little government graft). Poland I am less clear about but I have never heard anything about them having a really solid air force and anti-air capabilities which is one of the most critical things Ukraine needs (at this point Ukrainian ground forces are actually pretty good and are well versed in how to fight; what they need is to be able to ward off incursions by sea and air). https://www.airforcemag.com/ukraine-says-it-can-deter-a-russian-invasion-with-air-defense-nato-calls-for-adjustments/ https://www.airforcemag.com/ukraine-says-it-can-deter-a-russ... https://www.ft.com/content/1336c9be-f1c9-4545-9f85-3b07fcb746d6 https://www.ft.com/content/1336c9be-f1c9-4545-9f85-3b07fcb74...

bigbizisverywyz 5y ago
>the energy grid of the region is still very tied into Russia which is of a critical concern right now This however makes the relationship somewhat symbiotic, as Russia also depends on EU money. I remember reading recently (somewhere?) that Russia had transitioned from a failed industrial state to a failed Petrostate sometime in the 90's since that's currently their biggest source of foreign currency. Another point I'm surprised I don't see anybody making is the impact of drones on armoured assaults. The recent conflict (Tajikistan / Kyrgyzstan ?) showed that they could really devastate attacking armour, and last time Russia 'holidayed' in Ukraine it was their stronger armour that pushed the Ukrainians back. This could really tip the balance back to the defenders. Also, it's hard to deny you've invaded a country if 100 of your tanks are smouldering wrecks on the wrong side of a border.
rmind 5y ago
The Baltic States have electricity links with Finland, Sweden (subsea cables) and Poland (with another cable link planned). They are scheduled to pretty much disconnect from the Russian/CIS electricity grid by 2025: https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/baltic-states-and-poland-sign-eu720-million-grant-agreement-baltic-synchronisation-project-2020-dec-14_en https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/baltic-states-and-poland-sign... I totally agree on German forces being deplorable. Regarding Poland: - MIM-104 Patriot (air defense): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43574308 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43574308 - JASSM-ER (cruise missiles): https://defence24.com/70-jassm-er-missiles-for-the-polish-f-16-fighters-us-state-department-issues-a-consent https://defence24.com/70-jassm-er-missiles-for-the-polish-f-... - F-35 figher jets: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/01/31/poland-inks-46-billion-contract-for-f-35-fighter-jets/ https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/01/31/poland-... - M142 HIMARS rocket launchers: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/02/11/poland-to-sign-414-million-deal-for-rocket-launchers/ https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/02/11/poland-... - M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 tanks: https://www.defensenews.com/land/2021/07/14/polish-defence-ministry-confirms-plan-to-buy-m1-abrams-tanks/ https://www.defensenews.com/land/2021/07/14/polish-defence-m... .. and there are plenty of smaller scale projects. Poland is arming to teeth.

bigbizisverywyz 5y ago

>the energy grid of the region is still very tied into Russia which is of a critical concern right now This however makes the relationship somewhat symbiotic, as Russia also depends on EU money. I remember reading recently (somewhere?) that Russia had transitioned from a failed industrial state to a failed Petrostate sometime in the 90's since that's currently their biggest source of foreign currency. Another point I'm surprised I don't see anybody making is the impact of drones on armoured assaults. The recent conflict (Tajikistan / Kyrgyzstan ?) showed that they could really devastate attacking armour, and last time Russia 'holidayed' in Ukraine it was their stronger armour that pushed the Ukrainians back. This could really tip the balance back to the defenders. Also, it's hard to deny you've invaded a country if 100 of your tanks are smouldering wrecks on the wrong side of a border.

rmind 5y ago

The Baltic States have electricity links with Finland, Sweden (subsea cables) and Poland (with another cable link planned). They are scheduled to pretty much disconnect from the Russian/CIS electricity grid by 2025: https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/baltic-states-and-poland-sign-eu720-million-grant-agreement-baltic-synchronisation-project-2020-dec-14_en https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/baltic-states-and-poland-sign... I totally agree on German forces being deplorable. Regarding Poland: - MIM-104 Patriot (air defense): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43574308 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43574308 - JASSM-ER (cruise missiles): https://defence24.com/70-jassm-er-missiles-for-the-polish-f-16-fighters-us-state-department-issues-a-consent https://defence24.com/70-jassm-er-missiles-for-the-polish-f-... - F-35 figher jets: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/01/31/poland-inks-46-billion-contract-for-f-35-fighter-jets/ https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/01/31/poland-... - M142 HIMARS rocket launchers: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/02/11/poland-to-sign-414-million-deal-for-rocket-launchers/ https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/02/11/poland-... - M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 tanks: https://www.defensenews.com/land/2021/07/14/polish-defence-ministry-confirms-plan-to-buy-m1-abrams-tanks/ https://www.defensenews.com/land/2021/07/14/polish-defence-m... .. and there are plenty of smaller scale projects. Poland is arming to teeth.