4 ms·

Market predictability is at an extreme low. Rug pulls are happening on a regular basis, and spy is regularly being propped up by a few random, overvalued stocks

Market predictability is at an extreme low. Rug pulls are happening on a regular basis, and spy is regularly being propped up by a few random, overvalued stocks.

b9a2cab5 5y ago
It's being propped up by the Fed, which just announced their QE decision for the next 3 months or so today. That gives plenty time for an IPO.
asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
I actually don't know what "market predictability" means. Like, the market is never predictable, right? That's why most money managers don't consistently make big profits. Is this a notion that can be quantified? Can you cite some evidence for what you've said? Anyway, the person I was responding to said volatility and that is the metric I cited.
- jorvi 5y ago
  The market is predictable, just on a macro level and on long timescales. Look at the S&P return per 10 years for the last couple of decades.
quickthrowman 5y ago
That’s because there was an FOMC meeting today, it’s always more volatile before one. The market was told that what it expected would happen is going to happen, and it was pleased. It expected more bond purchase tapering and 3 rate hikes (75 bps total) next year. VIX is back under 20, volatility is settling down. Some unprofitable growth stocks have been sold off lately, but the rest of the market is chugging along just fine, at least until rates start to go up. Here’s a way to keep an eye on the probabilities the market is assigning to rate hikes at future Fed meetings: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to...
seattle_spring 5y ago
What are some examples of rug pulls? All of the ones I can think of are ICOs, not IPOs. I can, however, think of dozens of IPOs that have gone gangbusters.
- TylerE 5y ago
  It never actually IPOed, but Theranos?
  - seattle_spring 5y ago
    > Rug pulls are happening on a regular basis
- iratewizard 5y ago
  Woof, csco, essc, snow...

Market predictability is at an extreme low. Rug pulls are happening on a regular basis, and spy is regularly being propped up by a few random, overvalued stocks.

b9a2cab5 5y ago

It's being propped up by the Fed, which just announced their QE decision for the next 3 months or so today. That gives plenty time for an IPO.

asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago

I actually don't know what "market predictability" means. Like, the market is never predictable, right? That's why most money managers don't consistently make big profits. Is this a notion that can be quantified? Can you cite some evidence for what you've said? Anyway, the person I was responding to said volatility and that is the metric I cited.

jorvi 5y ago
The market is predictable, just on a macro level and on long timescales. Look at the S&P return per 10 years for the last couple of decades.

quickthrowman 5y ago

That’s because there was an FOMC meeting today, it’s always more volatile before one. The market was told that what it expected would happen is going to happen, and it was pleased. It expected more bond purchase tapering and 3 rate hikes (75 bps total) next year. VIX is back under 20, volatility is settling down. Some unprofitable growth stocks have been sold off lately, but the rest of the market is chugging along just fine, at least until rates start to go up. Here’s a way to keep an eye on the probabilities the market is assigning to rate hikes at future Fed meetings: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to...

seattle_spring 5y ago

What are some examples of rug pulls? All of the ones I can think of are ICOs, not IPOs. I can, however, think of dozens of IPOs that have gone gangbusters.

TylerE 5y ago
It never actually IPOed, but Theranos?
- seattle_spring 5y ago
  > Rug pulls are happening on a regular basis
iratewizard 5y ago
Woof, csco, essc, snow...