4 ms·

> downplaying the risk they pose is dangerous Over-amplifying the risk is dangerous. Wales, according to [1] has had well over 94% MMR vaccination since 2012.

by toolz 5y ago

> downplaying the risk they pose is dangerous Over-amplifying the risk is dangerous. Wales, according to [1] has had well over 94% MMR vaccination since 2012. The herd immunity threshold for measles is >95%, which is very unique to measles since it's so much more contagious, but to blame anti-vaxxers for that incomplete vaccinated status seems like a likely wrong conclusion. Getting a 100% willing population to 100% vaccination status is _hard_. I see anti-anti-vaxxers everywhere, what I don't see is any evidence or solutions coming from that group, just people whining that "the others" are causing problems. 1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/380453/mumps-measles-and-rubella-immunisation-in-wales/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/380453/mumps-measles-and...

toyg 5y ago
2012 is when the cluster happened, which triggered a wave of people rushing to vaccinate. Before that, for about 20 years, the Wakefield-generated disinformation pushed vaccination rates in kids down to alarming levels, which inevitably resulted in problems. "Widespread sensationalist British media reports of the initial Wakefield studies led to a decline of public confidence in the combined vaccine [20]. Following the controversy, initial dose uptake fell from 95% in 1995 to ~80% in 2003 [21]. Herd immunity was therefore compromised, and measles cases began to rise sharply from 2007. However, uptake improved once more in the mid-2000s (with occasional outbreaks), following several successive ‘catch-up’ campaigns in which individuals who were not vaccinated on time were invited to get vaccinated, along with a gradual restoration of public trust [16]. By 2014, the UK ended endemic transmission of measles". https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8073967/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8073967/ The problem is not getting vaccination rates close to 100%, but actually staying there when people stop seeing why it is important to vaccinate. It's entirely a communication problem, and legitimizing antivaxxer stances makes the problem worse.
- toolz 5y ago
  > legitimizing antivaxxer stances makes the problem worse. Do you believe what I've posted legitimizes antivaxxers stance? If so, what specifically have I said that does such? Speaking of the dangers of over amplifying the fear, MMR vaccines have been delayed 6+ months for 2 million kids according to the UN if I recall correctly. This is due to disproportionate fear being spread around covid. Measles is hands-down worse than covid for kids. This is the effect of scaring everyone away from hospitals rather than having rational risk/benefit analysis conversations. edit: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/world-risk-measles-outbreaks-covid-19-disrupts-infant-shots-report-says-2021-11-10/ https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/... sorry it was the WHO who said 3 million more than the previous year missed MMR in 2020 which was the largest increase in two decades.
  - toyg 5y ago
    > If so, what specifically have I said that does such? >> but to blame anti-vaxxers for that incomplete vaccinated status seems like a likely wrong conclusion It isn't the wrong conclusion! Press-spread antivax paranoia post-Wakefield was directly responsible for rates falling under safety levels! The reasons it hit harder in Wales are due to additional factors (lower educational levels, higher isolation, higher culture of distrust of (English) authority, etc etc), but there is absolutely no question that the fall in vaccination rates was due to the dawn of antivaxxers. That MMR vaccines have been delayed as result of lockdowns is tragic and should absolutely be fixed as soon as possible, of course. That's the case for any health-related procedure, we know the logistical impact of lockdowns has been massive - my son finally managed to get a dermatologist appointment in England after 10 months of waiting... The only way out of this state of things is to take Covid19 vaccination rates as close to 100% as possible, so that we can really turn it into "just a flu". Antivaxxers are an obstacle to this and should NOT be legitimized in any way, if we want to go back to a situation where we can safely prioritize other illnesses again.
    - toolz 5y ago
      > Antivaxxers are an obstacle to this and should NOT be legitimized in any way agreed, but also anti-anti-vaxxers are an obstacle that sensationalize and demonize rather than converse and educate. > The only way out of this state of things is to take Covid19 vaccination rates as close to 100% as possible This is incorrect. We have 200+ viruses that are endemic and likely can't be eradicated with vaccines (at least not with modern tech). Even if the vaccine was effective at preventing transmission (it isn't, if it has any benefit it's marginal and the U.S. federal government even went on record during a court hearing admitting just as much) it certainly has no hope of preventing transmission in all of the many animals that are transmitters. > if we want to go back to a situation where we can safely prioritize other illnesses again This is the danger I'm talking about, there is no "going back" - we should be safely prioritizing every disease at all times _especially_ during a time of mass panic. No ones fear or mass panic should determine how we approach medicine, that should be obvious to everyone, but fear kills rationality. Someones fear of covid, for example, should never take precedence over someones cancer. Being more scared of something does not merit getting priority for anything.

by toolz 5y ago

toyg 5y ago

2012 is when the cluster happened, which triggered a wave of people rushing to vaccinate. Before that, for about 20 years, the Wakefield-generated disinformation pushed vaccination rates in kids down to alarming levels, which inevitably resulted in problems. "Widespread sensationalist British media reports of the initial Wakefield studies led to a decline of public confidence in the combined vaccine [20]. Following the controversy, initial dose uptake fell from 95% in 1995 to ~80% in 2003 [21]. Herd immunity was therefore compromised, and measles cases began to rise sharply from 2007. However, uptake improved once more in the mid-2000s (with occasional outbreaks), following several successive ‘catch-up’ campaigns in which individuals who were not vaccinated on time were invited to get vaccinated, along with a gradual restoration of public trust [16]. By 2014, the UK ended endemic transmission of measles". https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8073967/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8073967/ The problem is not getting vaccination rates close to 100%, but actually staying there when people stop seeing why it is important to vaccinate. It's entirely a communication problem, and legitimizing antivaxxer stances makes the problem worse.

toolz 5y ago
> legitimizing antivaxxer stances makes the problem worse. Do you believe what I've posted legitimizes antivaxxers stance? If so, what specifically have I said that does such? Speaking of the dangers of over amplifying the fear, MMR vaccines have been delayed 6+ months for 2 million kids according to the UN if I recall correctly. This is due to disproportionate fear being spread around covid. Measles is hands-down worse than covid for kids. This is the effect of scaring everyone away from hospitals rather than having rational risk/benefit analysis conversations. edit: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/world-risk-measles-outbreaks-covid-19-disrupts-infant-shots-report-says-2021-11-10/ https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/... sorry it was the WHO who said 3 million more than the previous year missed MMR in 2020 which was the largest increase in two decades.
- toyg 5y ago
  > If so, what specifically have I said that does such? >> but to blame anti-vaxxers for that incomplete vaccinated status seems like a likely wrong conclusion It isn't the wrong conclusion! Press-spread antivax paranoia post-Wakefield was directly responsible for rates falling under safety levels! The reasons it hit harder in Wales are due to additional factors (lower educational levels, higher isolation, higher culture of distrust of (English) authority, etc etc), but there is absolutely no question that the fall in vaccination rates was due to the dawn of antivaxxers. That MMR vaccines have been delayed as result of lockdowns is tragic and should absolutely be fixed as soon as possible, of course. That's the case for any health-related procedure, we know the logistical impact of lockdowns has been massive - my son finally managed to get a dermatologist appointment in England after 10 months of waiting... The only way out of this state of things is to take Covid19 vaccination rates as close to 100% as possible, so that we can really turn it into "just a flu". Antivaxxers are an obstacle to this and should NOT be legitimized in any way, if we want to go back to a situation where we can safely prioritize other illnesses again.
  - toolz 5y ago
    > Antivaxxers are an obstacle to this and should NOT be legitimized in any way agreed, but also anti-anti-vaxxers are an obstacle that sensationalize and demonize rather than converse and educate. > The only way out of this state of things is to take Covid19 vaccination rates as close to 100% as possible This is incorrect. We have 200+ viruses that are endemic and likely can't be eradicated with vaccines (at least not with modern tech). Even if the vaccine was effective at preventing transmission (it isn't, if it has any benefit it's marginal and the U.S. federal government even went on record during a court hearing admitting just as much) it certainly has no hope of preventing transmission in all of the many animals that are transmitters. > if we want to go back to a situation where we can safely prioritize other illnesses again This is the danger I'm talking about, there is no "going back" - we should be safely prioritizing every disease at all times _especially_ during a time of mass panic. No ones fear or mass panic should determine how we approach medicine, that should be obvious to everyone, but fear kills rationality. Someones fear of covid, for example, should never take precedence over someones cancer. Being more scared of something does not merit getting priority for anything.