3 ms·
The total death count in my state for kids (under 20) is 4, which is simultaneously 4 too many, yet also any effort applied to vax kids is kind of a waste as lo
by VLM 5y ago
The total death count in my state for kids (under 20) is 4, which is simultaneously 4 too many, yet also any effort applied to vax kids is kind of a waste as long as old/sick/fat people are dropping like flies and filling the hospitals. Like the effort to save one of the four kids in my state by vax or whatever could, in theory, have saved about 2000 elderly people.
If you have a dual monitor system, its instructive to bring up a site like covid19.healthdata.org and put a state like Massachusetts on one monitor and perhaps Ohio on the other monitor.
In MA the vax rate is a 88% for one dose, and ICU beds needed has gone from 146 a month ago to 257 today a monthly growth rate of a a staggering 76%. If the number of ICU beds required in MA continues to double every month (very unlikely) then the entire population of MA will be in a ICU bed in merely 14 months.
In OH the vax rate is 61% for one dose, and ICU beds needed has gone from 716 a month ago to 891 today a monthly growth rate of 24%.
About a third of people in MA wear a mask as opposed to a quarter in OH, so we're told the growth rate is artificially smaller in MA than OH because they wear masks, so the situation is actually much worse.
As a simple linear regression, (76 - 24) / (88 - 66) shows a predictive model that for every one percent increase in vaccinations, there will be about 2.3 % GROWTH rate in ICU use. Not decline, but growth.
So as a predictive model, if 5% of the population of Ohio were convinced to get the vax, then the model predicts the ICU beds required in Ohio would be (2.3 * 5) which is an increase in the increase of ICU requirements of 11.5%.
- arcticbull 5y ago> ... yet also any effort applied to vax kids is kind of a waste as long as old/sick/fat people are dropping like flies and filling the hospitals. Not if the kids are spreading it to the old, like their parents and grandparents.
- sjg007 5y agoYour model is wrong. The vaccines are not putting people in the ICU. It is in fact the opposite.