Yes, we mostly agree! I do diverge on the 6 months issue - there is a notable decline in efficacy. In the US, a majority of the people who were vaccinated got t

Yes, we mostly agree! I do diverge on the 6 months issue - there is a notable decline in efficacy. In the US, a majority of the people who were vaccinated got their second shot >6 months ago, and only ~16% have gotten a booster. Combine vaccine efficacy decline starting at ~5 months with omicron immune evasion, and that means a big winter wave. Even with protection from severe illness, if a lot of people are getting sick, it will mean a lot of severe illness (large denominator).