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Good article. TLDR: Wright's Law, Jevon's Paradox, governmental policy. As editor, I would have encouraged author to include three more facets. What is the ma
by specialist 5y ago
Good article. TLDR: Wright's Law, Jevon's Paradox, governmental policy.
As editor, I would have encouraged author to include three more facets.
What is the market size for batteries? Give me a range. From incremental replacement of existing tech to total switchover.
Projections into the future. Per Wright's Law, driving down production costs, the marginal costs (?) of batteries will approach material costs. So what is that point and when will it happen?
The driver for Wright's Law is investment. What is that shape? Spending $X billions will reduce the price of 1kwh of batteries by $Y dollars. Mostly to train us noob observers and misc other policy makers to think in these terms. So during the food fights over our futureperfect carbon negative economy, tax payers and lobbyists for the captains of industry can say stuff like
"Ahem. Yes madam Senator, excellent question. Per our analysis, if the USA govt invests and underwrites 100 megabucks for the next decade, we'll bring to market 100 megawhats (sic), at below current prices and decreasing into the future, employing 100 kilopeeps (sic), resulting in 400 megabucks of tax and licensing revenue back to the USA govt over the next 40 years. Doing so will guarantee our grandchildren's economic security and prosperity. We ask for your support. Thank you."
- bryanlarsen 5y ago> Projections into the future. Per Wright's Law, driving down production costs, the marginal costs (?) of batteries will approach material costs. So what is that point and when will it happen? Batteries are price takers for materials such as iron, but for materials such as lithium, they are price setters. The price of lithium follows the same Wright's law curve as batteries do. Lithium is quite common, so its price decreases as quantities increase due to Wright's law. And batteries consume most of the world's lithium, so the lithium demand follow battery demand.
- specialist 5y agowrt price maker vs price taker, just to verify, batteries are a minor application for iron whereas lithium is the largest application (market). I ask because I hadn't heard that phrase before. (No reply necessary if I guessed correctly. :) )