5 ms·
Comparing the USA rates of hospitalization by age group as reported by statista to the anaphylaxis rates in the link, the "best" vax outcomes are with very old
by VLM 5y ago
Comparing the USA rates of hospitalization by age group as reported by statista to the anaphylaxis rates in the link, the "best" vax outcomes are with very old and comorbidity people, so it would have been wiser to separate by age.
Or maybe rephrased the outcome for vax'd 85+ and generally speaking, old fat and sick, patients is so vastly better that anaphylaxis among that group would be a rounding error, being vax'd for those people is like 800+ times better than unvax'd. On the other hand, for thin healthy kids the hospitalization rate for covid for a couple months is about the same as the anaphylaxis rate in that age group, so vax'ing healthy young people won't reduce hospitalization rates overall, instead of having like 1 per 100K kids in the hospital for covid you'd have about 1 per 100K kids in the hospital for anaphylaxis, so for them the risk is vastly reduced from no improvement to some improvement if they watch them for 15 minutes.
Therefore the best policy would be some sort of age based triage. Not-old, thin, healthy are more likely to end up with anaphylaxis hospitalization than covid hospitalization, so put them in observation for 15 mins to minimize the damage from vaccination. As for the old, fat, and sick, the rate of anaphylaxis hospitalization can seems to be about one thousandth the rate of covid hospitalization so proportionately observing them for 15 minutes won't save as many as simply vax'ing more of them would save, so push them thru the assembly line and don't bother with the 15 minutes.
I don't know the ratio of old/fat/sick to healthy in the UK. Perhaps, similar to some areas of the USA, may as well simply make one policy assuming everyone is old/fat/sick or some combination. In that situation the UK plan might make sense. Like in the USA having a vax clinic at a nursing home or Walmart or similar, just assume everyone attending the vax clinic is old/fat/sick.
- arcticbull 5y ago> On the other hand, for thin healthy kids the hospitalization rate for covid for a couple months is about the same as the anaphylaxis rate in that age group, so vax'ing healthy young people won't reduce hospitalization rates overall. I don't think this follows. Part of the benefit of vaccination is that it prevents spread and so vaccinating young and healthy people helps insulate unwell, old and immunocompromised folks. > Not-old, thin, healthy are more likely to end up with anaphylaxis hospitalization than covid hospitalization, so put them in observation for 15 mins to minimize the damage from vaccination. The goal here is to speed up the rate of vaccination by eliminating the bottleneck of keeping folks around. Only 28% of folks in the UK are obese so, and taking into account other factors and comoribidities, let's say 50% of folks needed to wait and 50% were free to go. Operationalizing a giant waiting line for thin people to hang out in as they wait on folks with a 15 minute timer, while fat people with comorbidies were free to duck in and out and get back to their lives feels pretty unworkable.
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- Jtype 5y agoAs someone in a population that is 99%+ vaccinated and covid is spreading like wildfire, the vaccines are doing nothing to stop spread now. We are seeing the most dramatic rise in cases since Covid began. This is in a youthful population who are almost all vaccinated. We have so far avoided severe illness, so I would recommend the vaccines to any individuals, but I see nothing now to convince me that vaccinating children will stop or even reduce spread.
- arcbyte 5y agoIt's definitely not doing "nothing". The vaccines are reliably reducing the severity of infection as you pointed out, and also reducing the duration where someone infected will infect others, thus reducing R value, thus applying significant friction to the spread. It's not the panacea we might have expected, but I think we all misunderstood vaccines from the get-go.
- bleuchase 5y agoYou didn’t get the memo that this was a lifetime subscription service?
- arcticbull 5y agoYou mean like a flu shot? And Tdap? Oh no. Anyways. This assessment is nether particularly interesting nor at all unprecedented. If it ends up being with us indefinitely, then a COVID booster will simply be incorporated into the annual flu shot.
- stathibus 5y agoWe didn't "misunderstand", we were sold optimism based on incomplete data. Don't confuse bad information for a literacy problem.
- 5y ago