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Empirical proof seems to indicate that your theory is wrong. Look at the infection numbers in Israel for example how they track pretty well with their vaccinati

Empirical proof seems to indicate that your theory is wrong. Look at the infection numbers in Israel for example how they track pretty well with their vaccination campaign.

trhway 5y ago
yep, Israel is one of the data point i used: https://www.science.org/content/article/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delt https://www.science.org/content/article/grim-warning-israel-... " Israel has among the world’s highest levels of vaccination for COVID-19, with 78% of those 12 and older fully vaccinated, the vast majority with the Pfizer vaccine. Yet the country is now logging one of the world’s highest infection rates, with nearly 650 new cases daily per million people. More than half are in fully vaccinated people" more-than-half. Say 55%. 22% gets 45%, 78% gets 55%. I.e. the 1/3rd as i said.
- Xylakant 5y ago
  Current incidence is about 50. Israel has been the first country to experience that the immunity from vaccination wanes after 6 month and had a severe peak. If you look at the development of the caseload over time, it tracks the initial vaccination campaign, rises after 6 month, falls after the booster campaign. The vaccine loosing effectiveness and the occurrence of partially vaccine-evading variants have been predicted from the outset. The open question was always where and when that would happen. Edit: references for the Israeli case load and development over time https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/israel/ https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m... You can clearly identify the two peaks, about 6 month apart.
  - trhway 5y ago
    Total number of cases changes, yet for Delta the 1/3rd has been pretty much the same over time and over space (UK, Israel, Singapore, MA in US (they have good data)). For Omicron it seems much higher than the 1/3rd. >The vaccine loosing effectiveness it never been effective at controlling the spread. It was developed for Alpha and was obsoleted almost immediately by Delta.

Empirical proof seems to indicate that your theory is wrong. Look at the infection numbers in Israel for example how they track pretty well with their vaccination campaign.

trhway 5y ago

yep, Israel is one of the data point i used: https://www.science.org/content/article/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delt https://www.science.org/content/article/grim-warning-israel-... " Israel has among the world’s highest levels of vaccination for COVID-19, with 78% of those 12 and older fully vaccinated, the vast majority with the Pfizer vaccine. Yet the country is now logging one of the world’s highest infection rates, with nearly 650 new cases daily per million people. More than half are in fully vaccinated people" more-than-half. Say 55%. 22% gets 45%, 78% gets 55%. I.e. the 1/3rd as i said.

Xylakant 5y ago
Current incidence is about 50. Israel has been the first country to experience that the immunity from vaccination wanes after 6 month and had a severe peak. If you look at the development of the caseload over time, it tracks the initial vaccination campaign, rises after 6 month, falls after the booster campaign. The vaccine loosing effectiveness and the occurrence of partially vaccine-evading variants have been predicted from the outset. The open question was always where and when that would happen. Edit: references for the Israeli case load and development over time https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/israel/ https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m... You can clearly identify the two peaks, about 6 month apart.
- trhway 5y ago
  Total number of cases changes, yet for Delta the 1/3rd has been pretty much the same over time and over space (UK, Israel, Singapore, MA in US (they have good data)). For Omicron it seems much higher than the 1/3rd. >The vaccine loosing effectiveness it never been effective at controlling the spread. It was developed for Alpha and was obsoleted almost immediately by Delta.