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>In people infected That's measure people who got the vaccine and then got infected. It's not factoring in how the vaccine reduces infections.

trhway 5y ago
>It's not factoring in how the vaccine reduces infections. The existing covid vaccines don't really reduce infections. Vaccinated chances of getting infected is about 1/3rd that of unvaccinated if one looks at the official numbers of infections at those places where such numbers are available. Giving that vaccine decreases the symptoms it is natural to expect that all those hordes of asymptomatic vaccinated virus spreaders aren't accounted for (CDC wouldn't count breakthrough until it is a hospitalization). The precise estimates of those unaccounted breakthrough is a wild guess, yet ballpark estimation (based on asymptomatic to symptomatic ratio for vaccinated which is much higher that that ratio for unvaccinated) brings vaccinated infection rate on par to that of unvaccinated.
- Xylakant 5y ago
  Empirical proof seems to indicate that your theory is wrong. Look at the infection numbers in Israel for example how they track pretty well with their vaccination campaign.
  - trhway 5y ago
    yep, Israel is one of the data point i used: https://www.science.org/content/article/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delt https://www.science.org/content/article/grim-warning-israel-... " Israel has among the world’s highest levels of vaccination for COVID-19, with 78% of those 12 and older fully vaccinated, the vast majority with the Pfizer vaccine. Yet the country is now logging one of the world’s highest infection rates, with nearly 650 new cases daily per million people. More than half are in fully vaccinated people" more-than-half. Say 55%. 22% gets 45%, 78% gets 55%. I.e. the 1/3rd as i said.
    - Xylakant 5y ago
      Current incidence is about 50. Israel has been the first country to experience that the immunity from vaccination wanes after 6 month and had a severe peak. If you look at the development of the caseload over time, it tracks the initial vaccination campaign, rises after 6 month, falls after the booster campaign. The vaccine loosing effectiveness and the occurrence of partially vaccine-evading variants have been predicted from the outset. The open question was always where and when that would happen. Edit: references for the Israeli case load and development over time https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/israel/ https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m... You can clearly identify the two peaks, about 6 month apart.
      - trhway 5y ago
        Total number of cases changes, yet for Delta the 1/3rd has been pretty much the same over time and over space (UK, Israel, Singapore, MA in US (they have good data)). For Omicron it seems much higher than the 1/3rd. >The vaccine loosing effectiveness it never been effective at controlling the spread. It was developed for Alpha and was obsoleted almost immediately by Delta.
- Thorrez 5y ago
  >The precise estimates of those unaccounted breakthrough is a wild guess Do you really need to wild guess? Couldn't you randomly test both vaccinated and unvaccinated people and see which group gets infected more often?

trhway 5y ago

>It's not factoring in how the vaccine reduces infections. The existing covid vaccines don't really reduce infections. Vaccinated chances of getting infected is about 1/3rd that of unvaccinated if one looks at the official numbers of infections at those places where such numbers are available. Giving that vaccine decreases the symptoms it is natural to expect that all those hordes of asymptomatic vaccinated virus spreaders aren't accounted for (CDC wouldn't count breakthrough until it is a hospitalization). The precise estimates of those unaccounted breakthrough is a wild guess, yet ballpark estimation (based on asymptomatic to symptomatic ratio for vaccinated which is much higher that that ratio for unvaccinated) brings vaccinated infection rate on par to that of unvaccinated.

Xylakant 5y ago
Empirical proof seems to indicate that your theory is wrong. Look at the infection numbers in Israel for example how they track pretty well with their vaccination campaign.
- trhway 5y ago
  yep, Israel is one of the data point i used: https://www.science.org/content/article/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delt https://www.science.org/content/article/grim-warning-israel-... " Israel has among the world’s highest levels of vaccination for COVID-19, with 78% of those 12 and older fully vaccinated, the vast majority with the Pfizer vaccine. Yet the country is now logging one of the world’s highest infection rates, with nearly 650 new cases daily per million people. More than half are in fully vaccinated people" more-than-half. Say 55%. 22% gets 45%, 78% gets 55%. I.e. the 1/3rd as i said.
  - Xylakant 5y ago
    Current incidence is about 50. Israel has been the first country to experience that the immunity from vaccination wanes after 6 month and had a severe peak. If you look at the development of the caseload over time, it tracks the initial vaccination campaign, rises after 6 month, falls after the booster campaign. The vaccine loosing effectiveness and the occurrence of partially vaccine-evading variants have been predicted from the outset. The open question was always where and when that would happen. Edit: references for the Israeli case load and development over time https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/israel/ https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m... You can clearly identify the two peaks, about 6 month apart.
    - trhway 5y ago
      Total number of cases changes, yet for Delta the 1/3rd has been pretty much the same over time and over space (UK, Israel, Singapore, MA in US (they have good data)). For Omicron it seems much higher than the 1/3rd. >The vaccine loosing effectiveness it never been effective at controlling the spread. It was developed for Alpha and was obsoleted almost immediately by Delta.
Thorrez 5y ago
>The precise estimates of those unaccounted breakthrough is a wild guess Do you really need to wild guess? Couldn't you randomly test both vaccinated and unvaccinated people and see which group gets infected more often?