4 ms·

>On the basis of that alone, you're better off taking your chances on the vaccine Is it though? I may not be infected by covid and not be subjected to the risk

>On the basis of that alone, you're better off taking your chances on the vaccine Is it though? I may not be infected by covid and not be subjected to the risk, but if I get the vaccine then I'm definitely subjecting myself to the risk. x * (1/25000) vs 1.0 * (1/100000) If the probability of catching covid (x) is less than 25% then the risk of myocarditis would be greater from the vaccine, no? Edit: what happens when you get the vaccine and then get covid? Do the current figures include that?

gjulianm 5y ago
Given that COVID seems to be on the path to be endemic, you should consider X to be close to 100%.
- roenxi 5y ago
  Given the booster programs currently being recommended in Australia, it is entirely possible that I will be getting 3x vaccine doses before being exposed to COVID. 25% chance of getting myocarditis would make the risk comparable to normal COVID for me. And that is assuming the vaccine is highly effective. There do seem to be questions about that, given the ongoing mutation and variants. I'd still rather get vaccinated, but I do question whether people are being obstinate about seriously discussing the pro- and con- on this topic.
croes 5y ago
It's a little bit more complicated. The severity of the mycarditis from the vaccines and corona differ.
funcDropShadow 5y ago
It is true that you might not get Covid-19 any time soon. But depending on where you live the chances might be quite high in the next months. At least that is the conclusion I draw for myself, living in Germany, considering the likely immunity evading behavior of the omicron variant, its growth rate in other countries, and the unwillingness of a lot of people to follow simple hygiene rules and social distancing.
cseleborg 5y ago
I haven't seen any evidence so far that this thing won't stick around forever, so personally, I'd estimate anyone's chances of never being infected with SARS-COV-2 to be virtually zero.
- moonchrome 5y ago
  But that's assuming all strains have the same risk.
- realreality 5y ago
  Exposure to the virus does not automatically result in developing COVID-19 (the disease). In a healthy person, the innate immune system will neutralize the virus in the mucosal membranes of the nose. Eventually, most everyone will be exposed. Not everyone will become sick.
- cub-creature 5y ago
  However, the odds of being infected with SARS-COV-2 every 6 months forever would most likely be virtually zero.
bigodbiel 5y ago
People act like it’s a dichotomy, either covid or the vaccine. The risk assessment should be made considering waning immunity, variants, etc. But no one can call this out without being censored for being anti vax. This is a dangerous precedent we are opening.
- eloff 5y ago
  Waning immunity is overblown, and while variants might somewhat evade both natural immunity and vaccine immunity, that risk doesn't change the calculus around whether to protect yourself now against the known variants. These are really anti-vax talking points, attempts to justify an anti-vax position. They're not imaginary concerns, but they also don't justify the former. I always support talking about things transparently without censorship, period. But at the same time I acknowledge there's a lot of misinformation out there and most people are unable to distinguish what is important and relevant from what is not. Including myself.
scotty79 5y ago
If you assume that you won't ever get covid, you might assume you'll never get any cold or flu in your life, even asymptomatic ones. It's not a good assumption unless you are planning to die in about a year for some other reasons.
- herbst 5y ago
  Thing is there are many 'colds' and 'flus' and the chance the catch a specific one may isn't that likely depending on where and how you live.
  - scotty79 5y ago
    Does that change anything? Covid is as contagious as any of them and all of them and immunity people gain against covid dimnishes in the matter of months. After few years it may drop to near zero as it is in the case of some other cold viruses.
- Aerroon 5y ago
  Sure, but EU countries are now discussing limiting the duration of the covid passport to 9 months already. That would mean, at a minimum, an extra shot every 9 months.
derbOac 5y ago
So, here's the worldwide cumulative prevalence of COVID: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-cases-region https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-cases-re... Assuming a world population of 7.75 billion, that puts the estimated prevalence at about 3.5%. However, that's using confirmed cases. Estimates of actual cases would put it at 4-10 times higher (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd... or https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/06/964527835/why-the-pandemic-is-10-times-worse-than-you-think https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/06/9645278...). So that puts it at 14-35%, right around 25%. Although that's over the last 21 months or so, it means you're more likely than not going to be infected with it in the next few years.
- zzt123 5y ago
  Keep in mind that boosters are now considered only good for 6 months, so depending on your definition of “the next few years”, you may be exposed to many times more spike protein load via the vaccine route. Anyways, I have no horse in this race, but I did notice some unusual chest tightness after my 3rd shot very recently - nothing serious though. I’m completely stress-free in life, so it’s not anxiety. Things have been great for me.

gjulianm 5y ago

Given that COVID seems to be on the path to be endemic, you should consider X to be close to 100%.

roenxi 5y ago
Given the booster programs currently being recommended in Australia, it is entirely possible that I will be getting 3x vaccine doses before being exposed to COVID. 25% chance of getting myocarditis would make the risk comparable to normal COVID for me. And that is assuming the vaccine is highly effective. There do seem to be questions about that, given the ongoing mutation and variants. I'd still rather get vaccinated, but I do question whether people are being obstinate about seriously discussing the pro- and con- on this topic.

croes 5y ago

It's a little bit more complicated. The severity of the mycarditis from the vaccines and corona differ.

funcDropShadow 5y ago

It is true that you might not get Covid-19 any time soon. But depending on where you live the chances might be quite high in the next months. At least that is the conclusion I draw for myself, living in Germany, considering the likely immunity evading behavior of the omicron variant, its growth rate in other countries, and the unwillingness of a lot of people to follow simple hygiene rules and social distancing.

cseleborg 5y ago

I haven't seen any evidence so far that this thing won't stick around forever, so personally, I'd estimate anyone's chances of never being infected with SARS-COV-2 to be virtually zero.

moonchrome 5y ago
But that's assuming all strains have the same risk.
realreality 5y ago
Exposure to the virus does not automatically result in developing COVID-19 (the disease). In a healthy person, the innate immune system will neutralize the virus in the mucosal membranes of the nose. Eventually, most everyone will be exposed. Not everyone will become sick.
cub-creature 5y ago
However, the odds of being infected with SARS-COV-2 every 6 months forever would most likely be virtually zero.

bigodbiel 5y ago

People act like it’s a dichotomy, either covid or the vaccine. The risk assessment should be made considering waning immunity, variants, etc. But no one can call this out without being censored for being anti vax. This is a dangerous precedent we are opening.

eloff 5y ago
Waning immunity is overblown, and while variants might somewhat evade both natural immunity and vaccine immunity, that risk doesn't change the calculus around whether to protect yourself now against the known variants. These are really anti-vax talking points, attempts to justify an anti-vax position. They're not imaginary concerns, but they also don't justify the former. I always support talking about things transparently without censorship, period. But at the same time I acknowledge there's a lot of misinformation out there and most people are unable to distinguish what is important and relevant from what is not. Including myself.

scotty79 5y ago

If you assume that you won't ever get covid, you might assume you'll never get any cold or flu in your life, even asymptomatic ones. It's not a good assumption unless you are planning to die in about a year for some other reasons.

herbst 5y ago
Thing is there are many 'colds' and 'flus' and the chance the catch a specific one may isn't that likely depending on where and how you live.
- scotty79 5y ago
  Does that change anything? Covid is as contagious as any of them and all of them and immunity people gain against covid dimnishes in the matter of months. After few years it may drop to near zero as it is in the case of some other cold viruses.
Aerroon 5y ago
Sure, but EU countries are now discussing limiting the duration of the covid passport to 9 months already. That would mean, at a minimum, an extra shot every 9 months.

derbOac 5y ago

So, here's the worldwide cumulative prevalence of COVID: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-cases-region https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-cases-re... Assuming a world population of 7.75 billion, that puts the estimated prevalence at about 3.5%. However, that's using confirmed cases. Estimates of actual cases would put it at 4-10 times higher (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd... or https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/06/964527835/why-the-pandemic-is-10-times-worse-than-you-think https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/06/9645278...). So that puts it at 14-35%, right around 25%. Although that's over the last 21 months or so, it means you're more likely than not going to be infected with it in the next few years.

zzt123 5y ago
Keep in mind that boosters are now considered only good for 6 months, so depending on your definition of “the next few years”, you may be exposed to many times more spike protein load via the vaccine route. Anyways, I have no horse in this race, but I did notice some unusual chest tightness after my 3rd shot very recently - nothing serious though. I’m completely stress-free in life, so it’s not anxiety. Things have been great for me.