3 ms·

Summary. >We estimated extra myocarditis events to be between 1 and 10 per million persons in the month following vaccination, which was substantially lower th

by nabla9 5y ago

Summary. >We estimated extra myocarditis events to be between 1 and 10 per million persons in the month following vaccination, which was substantially lower than the 40 extra events per million persons observed following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Vaccination reduces the risk of myocarditis relative to not getting vaccine. (risk increased only among those younger than 40).

funklute 5y ago
> Vaccination increases the risk of myocarditis. Relative to the base-level in a pre-covid world?
- eloff 5y ago
  Yes. According to this same study covid-19 has a 4x higher incidence of myocarditis than the "worst" of the mRNA vaccines. So the smart bet is still get the vaccine. That's not even accounting for all the other effects of a covid illness, including death.
  - Thorrez 5y ago
    I think there's a misunderstanding. funklute was asking about the pre-covid world, but your answer is about people who have covid.
- nabla9 5y ago
  adjusted for calendar time from 1 December 2020 to 24 August 2021
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
trhway 5y ago
>Vaccination reduces the risk of myocarditis relative to not getting vaccine. only when covid gets to 25% of population. Until that the vaccine results in higher risk of myocarditis than covid. And if we use cut-off of 40 years age, then the risk is even more worse with vaccine.
- Xylakant 5y ago
  Covid-19 will get to 25% of the population. It’s nearly there in many countries. The UK had 11 million confirmed cases for a 66 million population. Germany is comparatively good with 6 million confirmed on an 80 million population. Both is severely undercounting, as it doesn’t include asymptomatic cases and people that did not get tested. Covid will sooner or later infect everyone, likely even people that are vaccinated. The entire goal of the vaccination campaign is to slow and manage the spread and to reduce the severity of the infection.
  - trhway 5y ago
    >The entire goal of the vaccination campaign is to slow and manage the spread Looks like you're repeating some politicians' talking point without bothering to check it yourself - the existing vaccines have no noticeable effect on the spread: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y "Unfortunately, the vaccine’s beneficial effect on Delta transmission waned to almost negligible levels over time. In people infected 2 weeks after receiving the vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, both in the UK, the chance that an unvaccinated close contact would test positive was 57%, but 3 months later, that chance rose to 67%. The latter figure is on par with the likelihood that an unvaccinated person will spread the virus."
    - Thorrez 5y ago
      >In people infected That's measure people who got the vaccine and then got infected. It's not factoring in how the vaccine reduces infections.
      - trhway 5y ago
        >It's not factoring in how the vaccine reduces infections. The existing covid vaccines don't really reduce infections. Vaccinated chances of getting infected is about 1/3rd that of unvaccinated if one looks at the official numbers of infections at those places where such numbers are available. Giving that vaccine decreases the symptoms it is natural to expect that all those hordes of asymptomatic vaccinated virus spreaders aren't accounted for (CDC wouldn't count breakthrough until it is a hospitalization). The precise estimates of those unaccounted breakthrough is a wild guess, yet ballpark estimation (based on asymptomatic to symptomatic ratio for vaccinated which is much higher that that ratio for unvaccinated) brings vaccinated infection rate on par to that of unvaccinated.

by nabla9 5y ago

funklute 5y ago

> Vaccination increases the risk of myocarditis. Relative to the base-level in a pre-covid world?

eloff 5y ago
Yes. According to this same study covid-19 has a 4x higher incidence of myocarditis than the "worst" of the mRNA vaccines. So the smart bet is still get the vaccine. That's not even accounting for all the other effects of a covid illness, including death.
- Thorrez 5y ago
  I think there's a misunderstanding. funklute was asking about the pre-covid world, but your answer is about people who have covid.
nabla9 5y ago
adjusted for calendar time from 1 December 2020 to 24 August 2021
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

trhway 5y ago

>Vaccination reduces the risk of myocarditis relative to not getting vaccine. only when covid gets to 25% of population. Until that the vaccine results in higher risk of myocarditis than covid. And if we use cut-off of 40 years age, then the risk is even more worse with vaccine.

Xylakant 5y ago
Covid-19 will get to 25% of the population. It’s nearly there in many countries. The UK had 11 million confirmed cases for a 66 million population. Germany is comparatively good with 6 million confirmed on an 80 million population. Both is severely undercounting, as it doesn’t include asymptomatic cases and people that did not get tested. Covid will sooner or later infect everyone, likely even people that are vaccinated. The entire goal of the vaccination campaign is to slow and manage the spread and to reduce the severity of the infection.
- trhway 5y ago
  >The entire goal of the vaccination campaign is to slow and manage the spread Looks like you're repeating some politicians' talking point without bothering to check it yourself - the existing vaccines have no noticeable effect on the spread: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y "Unfortunately, the vaccine’s beneficial effect on Delta transmission waned to almost negligible levels over time. In people infected 2 weeks after receiving the vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, both in the UK, the chance that an unvaccinated close contact would test positive was 57%, but 3 months later, that chance rose to 67%. The latter figure is on par with the likelihood that an unvaccinated person will spread the virus."
  - Thorrez 5y ago
    >In people infected That's measure people who got the vaccine and then got infected. It's not factoring in how the vaccine reduces infections.
    - trhway 5y ago
      >It's not factoring in how the vaccine reduces infections. The existing covid vaccines don't really reduce infections. Vaccinated chances of getting infected is about 1/3rd that of unvaccinated if one looks at the official numbers of infections at those places where such numbers are available. Giving that vaccine decreases the symptoms it is natural to expect that all those hordes of asymptomatic vaccinated virus spreaders aren't accounted for (CDC wouldn't count breakthrough until it is a hospitalization). The precise estimates of those unaccounted breakthrough is a wild guess, yet ballpark estimation (based on asymptomatic to symptomatic ratio for vaccinated which is much higher that that ratio for unvaccinated) brings vaccinated infection rate on par to that of unvaccinated.