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I think patent licensing is a bit of a concern. As I understand it, a lot of the big battery manufacturers in China have an agreement that the don't need to pa
by elihu 5y ago
I think patent licensing is a bit of a concern. As I understand it, a lot of the big battery manufacturers in China have an agreement that the don't need to pay licensing fees for batteries used domestically, but if a major car manufacturer wanted to import LFP cells to, say, the U.S. they might have to pay the licensing fees or risk getting sued. (That might not be 100% correct, I'm kind of piecing things together from random Internet sources.) That may be moot soon as the relevant patents expire, which could change the battery landscape hugely (I hope).
Another thing is that not all LFPs are necessarily ideal for automotive use. For instance, batteries that can only safely discharge at 1C might be a bad idea to use unless the vehicle has a large enough battery pack that the load is spread out over a lot of cells. So, price isn't everything. Obviously, high energy density is also much desired for use in cars.
That said, I think LFPs are probably the ideal technology right now for replacing most of the world's combustion-engine ground transportation infrastructure with battery-electric vehicles. We just need to manufacture them at the necessary scale, and right now it's only China that's doing it. (It's like if Saudi Arabia discovered oil and the rest of the world said, "Well, I guess Saudi Arabia just owns the whole oil market. No reason to invest in it ourselves, because we can just get it from KSA." In the 20th century that would have obviously been a strategic blunder, but that's what the world is basically doing now with batteries. Whoever can make batteries cheaper than everyone else can use that to dominate the energy industry going forward. Fortunately there are fewer moats; anyone can make batteries if they can get the ingredients, and LFP ingredients are mostly not that rare except maybe lithium and copper.)
- gibolt 5y agoIIRC, global LFP patents are due to expire in the next year or two, allowing production everywhere. LFP is great for cheaper vehicles and awesome for grid storage (which is not weight sensitive). The vast majority of batteries in the near-term transition will be LFP due to their common materials and super cheap cost.
- guerby 5y agoLooks like the important ones have expired already: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_GtSA4Ig9s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_GtSA4Ig9s "A Brief History of LFP, Patents, Licencing Costs, Pricing // and Tesla" by The Limiting Factor
- elihu 5y agoAccording to that video, almost all of them have expired but there's one more that might be important that expires on April 27, 2022.