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This is very obviously wrong, but it is the conventional wisdom. Every time someone says something like this and mentions Jimmy Buffet you know they're just quo
by landa 5y ago
This is very obviously wrong, but it is the conventional wisdom. Every time someone says something like this and mentions Jimmy Buffet you know they're just quoting some movie like Wolf of Wall Street.
Trading is a real job and the market is very inefficient. If you're too lazy to study it, you say things like what the GDC7 posted. It's pretty easy to predict Microsoft stock four months from now (it will probably be higher, but there's a small chance it will be lower), certainly easier than "the fate of the Universe trillions of years from now."
At the end of the day, trading is learning how to manage risk. What is Microsoft doing, how much is it likely to make, and will the macro environment support or suppress their strategy. Then you put on a trade to take advantage of this view. You may sometimes be wrong, but the idea is that over all of your decisions, you'll mostly be right and make more money than you lose.
- speedgoose 5y agoHow do you feel about research papers showing that trading randomly is as good on the long term ? https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235937406_Are_Random_Trading_Strategies_More_Successful_than_Technical_Ones https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235937406_Are_Rando...
- massinstall 5y agoWith all due respect, you have no idea what you’re talking about. Your imagination of how this industry works is skewed. It is amazing how many self-professed experts there are, without any professional or meaningful experience. And the confidence they have… Source: have been working professionally in trading for almost 24 years. Go unleash your attack dogs against me now. :) P.S.: Since it’s “pretty easy” to predict MSFT for you, let me congratulate you in advance to your exorbitant returns of the near future. Soon, the world will know of you, the next Elon Musk.
- 1ibsq 5y agoI don't want to defend the comment you replied to, but there is obviously some nuance to the topic. Your comment makes it look like you're jumping right on the opposite side and have been rolling dice for 24 years. There is obviously some sort of substance in trading. To what degree, is the question here.
- blitzar 5y ago> trading is learning how to manage risk Obviously everyone remembers the time a team of gifted nobel prize winning mathemeticians cracked the formula, managing risk better than anyone who had walked the earth before. So magnificent were the gainz that they imploded under the weight of all their brilliance, and were bailed out with the help of the federal reserve.