I think that trend prediction is a fascinating area. I’ve read several books on the topic. Sorry for the long reply, but I believe based on what I have read (

I think that trend prediction is a fascinating area. I’ve read several books on the topic. Sorry for the long reply, but I believe based on what I have read (though I don’t have the math skills to show it) that “the next big thing” is emergent, i.e. they are the states that are possible to reach out of the current set of system states. In other words, where we will be can only result from where we are now. I believe this is conceptually related to chaos theory? Since it is impossible (due to complexity) to model exactly where we are now in a broad sense (e.g. the whole current way of life), it is difficult to say where we will be next in a broad sense. However, a lower order state model of where we are now may provide a rough estimate of possible future states in that model. This is most likely why we can say that there will probably be a medical breakthrough for society in the near future; but, perhaps we can’t say exactly what that breakthrough will be. Maybe if the system under observation is small enough, you can get close.