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My quick take is that you can’t really. At least beside following tech related news. If “the next big thing” was predictable it would be “the big thing right no

by Nesco 5y ago

My quick take is that you can’t really. At least beside following tech related news. If “the next big thing” was predictable it would be “the big thing right now”. All the examples you took were only clearly “the big thing” in retrospect. For example right now who knows which one of: VR, crypto, biotech, etc will be the “big thing” of the decade? If one trust the power law one will still dwarf the others by its importance in retrospect.

byoung2 5y ago
If “the next big thing” was predictable it would be “the big thing right now”. Sometimes you know the next big thing, but tech has to catch up. I knew in 2003 that smartphones would be huge. I was a big fan but I knew not everyone had unlimited data plans like I did. Also the UI was clunky. There was no question that with an improvement in tech there would be mass adoption. There is no question that self-driving cars or electric cars will be near universal at some point. Whether that is 10 years or 50 years is the only question. Cryptocurrency too is just waiting for some killer application or a major bank crash before people say yeah this is the way to go. I think we know many of the next big things now, we are just waiting for tech (or people) to catch up. My daughter, for example, is 9 and I don't think she has ever touched a physical light switch. She grew up in a house with 17 Alexa devices and 70 smart switches, outlets, and lights. You just tell Alexa what you want. At some point in the future the rest of the world will be living the way I do now.
- Nesco 5y ago
  Aren’t you afraid of privacy issues with so many objects connected to internet?
consultutah 5y ago
For every “next big thing” there were 1000 other things that looked like they would be it, but weren’t.
- byoung2 5y ago
  I bet many of those "failures" were before their time. Example the Apple Newton was a failure but the iPad was and is a success. Sega channel offered games via subscription in the 1990s. Nintendo power glove offered an immersive VR feel to games. VR goggles come back every 10 years and still haven't stuck. Eventually they might.

by Nesco 5y ago

byoung2 5y ago

If “the next big thing” was predictable it would be “the big thing right now”. Sometimes you know the next big thing, but tech has to catch up. I knew in 2003 that smartphones would be huge. I was a big fan but I knew not everyone had unlimited data plans like I did. Also the UI was clunky. There was no question that with an improvement in tech there would be mass adoption. There is no question that self-driving cars or electric cars will be near universal at some point. Whether that is 10 years or 50 years is the only question. Cryptocurrency too is just waiting for some killer application or a major bank crash before people say yeah this is the way to go. I think we know many of the next big things now, we are just waiting for tech (or people) to catch up. My daughter, for example, is 9 and I don't think she has ever touched a physical light switch. She grew up in a house with 17 Alexa devices and 70 smart switches, outlets, and lights. You just tell Alexa what you want. At some point in the future the rest of the world will be living the way I do now.

Nesco 5y ago
Aren’t you afraid of privacy issues with so many objects connected to internet?

consultutah 5y ago

For every “next big thing” there were 1000 other things that looked like they would be it, but weren’t.

byoung2 5y ago
I bet many of those "failures" were before their time. Example the Apple Newton was a failure but the iPad was and is a success. Sega channel offered games via subscription in the 1990s. Nintendo power glove offered an immersive VR feel to games. VR goggles come back every 10 years and still haven't stuck. Eventually they might.