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Ask HN: If omicron does not overwhelm hospitals, will it be allowed to spread?

6 points by amichail 5y ago

DanBC 5y ago
Omicron will overwhelm hospitals. I'm not sure what you mean by "allowed to spread" -- people didn't want to lock down for alpha or delta, and they're no appetite for lockdown now, especially for something like omicron which is widely (but mistakenly) perceived to be "less dangerous" than delta. Because of the increased transmissibility any lockdown would have to be pretty fierce.
- josephcsible 5y ago
  I assume that by "allowed", OP means whether we'll finally relax social distancing and mask mandates.
  - ksaj 5y ago
    That would suggest OP has forgotten that Delta and the original Alpha are still here. You can't really let one go rampant regardless of how "mild" it may be, without taking the others that are not "mild" into account. The reason we used to aim for "flatten the curve" is because the death toll in unvaccinated people wasn't expected change in the end, but the number of serious and/or deadly cases at any given time can be controlled to a higher degree, helping the hospitals avoid becoming overwhelmed. Which is to say, as long as Delta et al are making their appearances known, there won't be much relaxing of the floodgates.
- NicoJuicy 5y ago
  Why do you think it's mistakingly perceived as less dangerous? All numbers seem to point in that direction ( = mild)
rkk3 5y ago
The implication of "allowed" is that they have the choice or ability to do otherwise. The most effective tool against covid-19, the vaccine, has already been widely deployed. Most other solutions are generally just virtue and in-group signaling. Politicians are followers, not leaders, they do what they think their constituents want. Ultimately what action they take depends where you are.
NoPie 5y ago
Allowed? It will spread regardless of what we do. It will not significantly overwhelm hospital either.
resoluteteeth 5y ago
If omicron is really so mild that it isn't putting anyone into hospitals and the spread of omicron also eliminates Delta, then yeah governments will probably stop bothering with measures to contain covid. These are really, really big assumptions though.

6 points by amichail 5y ago

Omicron will overwhelm hospitals. I'm not sure what you mean by "allowed to spread" -- people didn't want to lock down for alpha or delta, and they're no appetite for lockdown now, especially for something like omicron which is widely (but mistakenly) perceived to be "less dangerous" than delta. Because of the increased transmissibility any lockdown would have to be pretty fierce.

josephcsible 5y ago
I assume that by "allowed", OP means whether we'll finally relax social distancing and mask mandates.
- ksaj 5y ago
  That would suggest OP has forgotten that Delta and the original Alpha are still here. You can't really let one go rampant regardless of how "mild" it may be, without taking the others that are not "mild" into account. The reason we used to aim for "flatten the curve" is because the death toll in unvaccinated people wasn't expected change in the end, but the number of serious and/or deadly cases at any given time can be controlled to a higher degree, helping the hospitals avoid becoming overwhelmed. Which is to say, as long as Delta et al are making their appearances known, there won't be much relaxing of the floodgates.
NicoJuicy 5y ago
Why do you think it's mistakingly perceived as less dangerous? All numbers seem to point in that direction ( = mild)

rkk3 5y ago

The implication of "allowed" is that they have the choice or ability to do otherwise. The most effective tool against covid-19, the vaccine, has already been widely deployed. Most other solutions are generally just virtue and in-group signaling. Politicians are followers, not leaders, they do what they think their constituents want. Ultimately what action they take depends where you are.

NoPie 5y ago

Allowed? It will spread regardless of what we do. It will not significantly overwhelm hospital either.

resoluteteeth 5y ago

If omicron is really so mild that it isn't putting anyone into hospitals and the spread of omicron also eliminates Delta, then yeah governments will probably stop bothering with measures to contain covid. These are really, really big assumptions though.