Yes, the best case scenario might be an extremely mild disease that gives everyone natural immunity to more virulent strains. But half as deadly with twice tran

Yes, the best case scenario might be an extremely mild disease that gives everyone natural immunity to more virulent strains. But half as deadly with twice transmission rate is kind of a wash, in the short term right? But if R > 1, eventually everyone gets it and has their lottery ticket drawn, so increased transmissibility just speeds that process up (unflattens the curve). With the vaccines, R was < 1, so it would have petered out. That scenario looks out the window. I think its a little early to be making confident predictions. Lots of potential confounds, e.g. while hospitalization rates have been lower in South Africa, I believe that the demographics have skewed younger than in previous waves too.