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I don't understand this study. Why not compare the hospitalization/fatality rates between _current_ omicron/delta infections between similar cohorts? Comparin

I don't understand this study. Why not compare the hospitalization/fatality rates between _current_ omicron/delta infections between similar cohorts? Comparing to an earlier wave is hopelessly confounded on prior infections in the intervening time and similarly, on the most susceptible having already been killed off. Maybe they did what I'm suggesting and its mostly just bad reporting? edit from the summary :-/ : Vaccine effectiveness: The two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination provides 70% protection against severe complications of COVID-19 requiring hospitalisation, and 33% protection against COVID-19 infection, during the current Omicron wave. Reinfection risk: For individuals who have had COVID-19 previously, the risk of reinfection with Omicron is significantly higher, relative to prior variants. Severity: The risk of hospital admission among adults diagnosed with COVID-19 is 29% lower for the Omicron variant infection compared to infections involving the D614G mutation in South Africa’s first wave in mid-2020, after adjusting for vaccination status Children: Despite very low absolute incidence, preliminary data suggests that children have a 20% higher risk of hospital admission in Omicron-led fourth wave in South Africa, relative to the D614G-led first wave.

drited 5y ago
Thank you for removing the uncertainty on that! Agreed regarding the unspecific reporting. Seemed to me to be one of those areas where the author assumed you'd assume... I dislike that as it introduces the possibility of misinterpretation. Now the next question is what is the percentage reduction in deaths for Omicron vs prior variants. It seems like more than the 29 percent reduction in hospitalisation given the first death from Omicron was reported in Britain last week right?
- londons_explore 5y ago
  Most countries are not doing very many full genome sequences, so confirmed cases of Omicron are very low. For this to coincide with a death is unlikely. Deaths also typically take ~3 weeks from infection. 3 weeks ago, there weren't many cases. Omicron cases are 'suspected' via a partial match in a PCR test (widely done), but this isn't definitive. End result: There are very few confirmed deaths.
- alvah 5y ago
  A death with Omicron has been reported, however the UK government have refused to release further details, so at the moment the confirmed # of deaths from Omicron is still 0. This will change of course.

drited 5y ago

Thank you for removing the uncertainty on that! Agreed regarding the unspecific reporting. Seemed to me to be one of those areas where the author assumed you'd assume... I dislike that as it introduces the possibility of misinterpretation. Now the next question is what is the percentage reduction in deaths for Omicron vs prior variants. It seems like more than the 29 percent reduction in hospitalisation given the first death from Omicron was reported in Britain last week right?

londons_explore 5y ago
Most countries are not doing very many full genome sequences, so confirmed cases of Omicron are very low. For this to coincide with a death is unlikely. Deaths also typically take ~3 weeks from infection. 3 weeks ago, there weren't many cases. Omicron cases are 'suspected' via a partial match in a PCR test (widely done), but this isn't definitive. End result: There are very few confirmed deaths.
alvah 5y ago
A death with Omicron has been reported, however the UK government have refused to release further details, so at the moment the confirmed # of deaths from Omicron is still 0. This will change of course.