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The thing is, vaccines were never advertised as tools to prevent infection. The story has always been that it reduces symptoms and hospitalization, so there are

The thing is, vaccines were never advertised as tools to prevent infection. The story has always been that it reduces symptoms and hospitalization, so there are plenty of opportunities for the disease to get “tickets” in the evolution lottery. Between that, the animal reservoirs (COVID can spread to different species), and the millions of people in undeveloped countries who will never get a vax, COVID was guaranteed to mutate no matter what the public policy. Letting it rip is less a strategy and more an acknowledgement of reality.

jimmyearlcarter 5y ago
The vaccine was initially sold as the tool to end the pandemic and get life back to 'normal'. The narrative has evolved to suit the deficiencies of the vaccine and keep profits from sinking.
- NicoJuicy 5y ago
  Or if the virus gets irrelevant. One doesn't exclude the other. People don't see an end with natural evolution, so the vaccine was/is the main focus for a long time.
- yread 5y ago
  They could have ended the wildtype pandemic. As soon as delta appeared it was impossible. They have 90% efficiency at best and you need 84% of all people protected to stop delta (1-1/R0 for R0=6). It's impossible to get such high vax rate.
  - Ar-Curunir 5y ago
    Not necessarily. Eg the Netherlands has ~77% vaccination rate, which is pretty close to the quoted 84%.
    - sharken 5y ago
      I'd go so far as to say 77% is "good enough", ie. it's time to live with the virus and not change our ways because of it.
  - arcturus17 5y ago
    We’re at 80% vaccination in Spain… I think we can surpass 84%.
    - jefftk 5y ago
      37.7M fully vaccinated, 47.35M population -- impressive! I was initially assuming you were excluding kids or other people ineligible to get vaccinated.
  - semi-extrinsic 5y ago
    It was kinda-possible to return to normality with delta though. The entire EU is above 70% of the total population, with some countries above 80%. And of the unvaccinated, most are children who are less susceptible in the first place. But with Omicron, it's literally like we're back to March 2020. Norway (with 81% vaccination rate) went from normality to full lockdown in the past two weeks. I'm pretty sure that's coming everywhere else during the next month or so.
    - sharken 5y ago
      If lockdown is considered then it goes to show how little politicians know about the virus. We need to treat Corona the same way we treat the flu and we should start now. As an example the current number of hospitalizations here in Denmark is about 50% of the worst period for the 2017/18 flu. The thing is that various governments have neglected hospitals and health care, that is the real problem that must be dealt with.
    - spookthesunset 5y ago
      If omicron causes lockdowns again than this will literally happen every winter. Vaccines were the end state. There is nothing left to do but accept the risks and move on with life. People scared about hospital capacity should be asking strong questions to their politicians about why they squandered 2 years of peoples short life with zero new capacity. The public shouldn’t shoulder the failures of politicians nor these “experts”.
  - nostrademons 5y ago
    They pretty much did end the Delta pandemic in the Bay Area. We had a minor spike up and then it subsided without any major restrictions or strain on the healthcare system. Vaccination rates are 95%+ where I am, so 0.95 * 0.9 = 0.855 and it was still over the herd immunity threshold.
- teolandon 5y ago
  Any links to any marketing material "selling" the vaccine as the tool to end the pandemic?
  - LZ_Khan 5y ago
    Governments requiring it to work regularly again is the only "marketing material" you need.
  - de_keyboard 5y ago
    The UK government absolutely did this.
- dyslexit 5y ago
  > The narrative has evolved to suit the deficiencies of the vaccine and keep profits from sinking. The narrative may have evolved but that was more due to the virus evolving rather than some conspiracy driven by Pfizer and Moderna to sell more shots. More people being vaccinated benefits everyone, not just the pharmaceutical companies, and saying otherwise is a bit paranoid.
foobiekr 5y ago
This isn’t true, and the lack of testing during the phase 3 trials to see if there were non-symptomatic cases was a deliberate design choice to avoid answering that question. I’m all in on vaccination, but let’s not rewrite history.
- rndmio 5y ago
  That’s not completely true either. The UK phase 3 trial of the AZ vaccine included weekly testing to catch asymptomatic cases.
hpoe 5y ago
I've heard that but then why do people say we need to get vaccinated to protect the most vulnerable members of society if the vaccine isn't actually slowing the spread and doesn't prevent infection? EDIT: To be clear I already had COVID and didn't have any serious symptoms so the argument about a hospital bed doesn't necessarily apply to me. Beyond that I actually got vaccinated, my question centers around the disparity of treatment we are giving individuals who are vaxxed and those who are not if both are capable of spreading. Further it brings in the question of vaccine mandates if they are much less effective then we were led to believe.
- sjg007 5y ago
  It's called being a decent human being and also the vaccine protects you as well.
  - hpoe 5y ago
    Well I got COVID before the vaccine came out and am not in a high risk group, so I'm not really that worried about me. But you say it is being a decent human being, but I am confused if we both agree the vaccine doesn't reduce infectivity then why would me getting it change anything for anyone else, since we know it doesn't protect others?
    - kelnos 5y ago
      > if we both agree the vaccine doesn't reduce infectivity I don't agree with that, and I don't believe the currently available data does, either.
    - jat850 5y ago
      It amazes me that there remains this misguided view that vaccination efficacy around protecting others is a binary mechanism. It's not. There is evidence of at least partial reduction in infection, not just outcome, by being vaccinated. That's not including the nuanced aspect of it where being vaccinated reduces the severity and duration of symptomatic cases, which by nature reduces the likelihood simply based on time alone, of exposing others.
jonnycomputer 5y ago
the vaccines may not have been advertised as that, since the evidence during development for that was marginal. but recent evidence suggests that it does prevent infection. unfortunately, less true with omicron.
roenxi 5y ago
> The thing is, vaccines were never advertised as tools to prevent infection. A lot of people believed they were. I've spent some time arguing with people that the punishments for not taking the vaccine were too extreme, and that government-supported firing of people from their jobs was a bad idea. It was extremely common for people to argue that the vaccine would cut down on transmission (which is basically saying infection) and end the pandemic. Without that pillar it gets quite hard to justify the discrimination against unvaccinated people in Australia. Not sure about the rest of the world but I assume there is a similar story.
- chasd00 5y ago
  this is why i was, and continue to be, against the various vaccine mandates. My employer said to me "upload your vax card or get an exemption else be fired". It was a bridge too far for me and I submitted for an exemption request on grounds of personal conscious. However, a couple weeks later we get another email that says if your exemption request is denied you are fired. I could have taken a moral stand but i have a wife + 2 kids and a MIL dependent on my income and I decided it wasn't worth it. I ended up canceling my request and uploading my vax card. In the US the politicians know a law mandating the vaccine is a non-starter. So, instead, they encouraged and supported employers threatening their employees. I guess it's ironic that everyone is quitting everywhere anyway.
chiefalchemist 5y ago
> The thing is, vaccines were never advertised as tools to prevent infection. In the USA? Yes, they were. There was no mention of a future need for boosters. There was a simple promise of safety, and for things to return to normal.
- spankalee 5y ago
  No, they were promoted as drastically reducing the chance of severe symptoms and hospitalizations.
- kelnos 5y ago
  Literally everything I read about vaccine efficacy said that the metrics they tracked were about reducing the incidence of symptoms and serious disease. They didn't even test people in the clinical trials for COVID unless they started showing symptoms. Now, certainly, some media outlets may have been irresponsibly or ignorantly misinterpreting all this and pushing the narrative that it would make everyone immune. But that's not the CDC or WHO's fault. > There was no mention of a future need for boosters. Not sure what that has to do with anything. Things change. > There was a simple promise of safety, and for things to return to normal. You must have been reading some really watered-down news, and not actually reading what public health officials were saying.
  - chiefalchemist 5y ago
    Well, the narrative being disconnected from facts is a different conversation.
- icedchai 5y ago
  We got to return to normal for about 2 months (June and July!) Maybe next year we’ll get 3 months, but I wouldn’t count on it.
josephg 5y ago
Who cares about the advertising? The data is in, and the vaccines do both - they decrease your chance to be infected and they make symptoms much more mild if you are infected. The combination of factors is why hospitalisation rates in highly vaccinated countries plummeted. Or at least they did until omicron. Unfortunately 2 doses of the existing vaccines are pretty ineffective against omicron. 3 doses make the vaccines work better - but I’m honestly a little concerned.

jimmyearlcarter 5y ago

The vaccine was initially sold as the tool to end the pandemic and get life back to 'normal'. The narrative has evolved to suit the deficiencies of the vaccine and keep profits from sinking.

NicoJuicy 5y ago
Or if the virus gets irrelevant. One doesn't exclude the other. People don't see an end with natural evolution, so the vaccine was/is the main focus for a long time.
yread 5y ago
They could have ended the wildtype pandemic. As soon as delta appeared it was impossible. They have 90% efficiency at best and you need 84% of all people protected to stop delta (1-1/R0 for R0=6). It's impossible to get such high vax rate.
- Ar-Curunir 5y ago
  Not necessarily. Eg the Netherlands has ~77% vaccination rate, which is pretty close to the quoted 84%.
  - sharken 5y ago
    I'd go so far as to say 77% is "good enough", ie. it's time to live with the virus and not change our ways because of it.
- arcturus17 5y ago
  We’re at 80% vaccination in Spain… I think we can surpass 84%.
  - jefftk 5y ago
    37.7M fully vaccinated, 47.35M population -- impressive! I was initially assuming you were excluding kids or other people ineligible to get vaccinated.
- semi-extrinsic 5y ago
  It was kinda-possible to return to normality with delta though. The entire EU is above 70% of the total population, with some countries above 80%. And of the unvaccinated, most are children who are less susceptible in the first place. But with Omicron, it's literally like we're back to March 2020. Norway (with 81% vaccination rate) went from normality to full lockdown in the past two weeks. I'm pretty sure that's coming everywhere else during the next month or so.
  - sharken 5y ago
    If lockdown is considered then it goes to show how little politicians know about the virus. We need to treat Corona the same way we treat the flu and we should start now. As an example the current number of hospitalizations here in Denmark is about 50% of the worst period for the 2017/18 flu. The thing is that various governments have neglected hospitals and health care, that is the real problem that must be dealt with.
  - spookthesunset 5y ago
    If omicron causes lockdowns again than this will literally happen every winter. Vaccines were the end state. There is nothing left to do but accept the risks and move on with life. People scared about hospital capacity should be asking strong questions to their politicians about why they squandered 2 years of peoples short life with zero new capacity. The public shouldn’t shoulder the failures of politicians nor these “experts”.
- nostrademons 5y ago
  They pretty much did end the Delta pandemic in the Bay Area. We had a minor spike up and then it subsided without any major restrictions or strain on the healthcare system. Vaccination rates are 95%+ where I am, so 0.95 * 0.9 = 0.855 and it was still over the herd immunity threshold.
teolandon 5y ago
Any links to any marketing material "selling" the vaccine as the tool to end the pandemic?
- LZ_Khan 5y ago
  Governments requiring it to work regularly again is the only "marketing material" you need.
- de_keyboard 5y ago
  The UK government absolutely did this.
dyslexit 5y ago
> The narrative has evolved to suit the deficiencies of the vaccine and keep profits from sinking. The narrative may have evolved but that was more due to the virus evolving rather than some conspiracy driven by Pfizer and Moderna to sell more shots. More people being vaccinated benefits everyone, not just the pharmaceutical companies, and saying otherwise is a bit paranoid.

foobiekr 5y ago

This isn’t true, and the lack of testing during the phase 3 trials to see if there were non-symptomatic cases was a deliberate design choice to avoid answering that question. I’m all in on vaccination, but let’s not rewrite history.

rndmio 5y ago
That’s not completely true either. The UK phase 3 trial of the AZ vaccine included weekly testing to catch asymptomatic cases.

hpoe 5y ago

I've heard that but then why do people say we need to get vaccinated to protect the most vulnerable members of society if the vaccine isn't actually slowing the spread and doesn't prevent infection? EDIT: To be clear I already had COVID and didn't have any serious symptoms so the argument about a hospital bed doesn't necessarily apply to me. Beyond that I actually got vaccinated, my question centers around the disparity of treatment we are giving individuals who are vaxxed and those who are not if both are capable of spreading. Further it brings in the question of vaccine mandates if they are much less effective then we were led to believe.

sjg007 5y ago
It's called being a decent human being and also the vaccine protects you as well.
- hpoe 5y ago
  Well I got COVID before the vaccine came out and am not in a high risk group, so I'm not really that worried about me. But you say it is being a decent human being, but I am confused if we both agree the vaccine doesn't reduce infectivity then why would me getting it change anything for anyone else, since we know it doesn't protect others?
  - kelnos 5y ago
    > if we both agree the vaccine doesn't reduce infectivity I don't agree with that, and I don't believe the currently available data does, either.
  - jat850 5y ago
    It amazes me that there remains this misguided view that vaccination efficacy around protecting others is a binary mechanism. It's not. There is evidence of at least partial reduction in infection, not just outcome, by being vaccinated. That's not including the nuanced aspect of it where being vaccinated reduces the severity and duration of symptomatic cases, which by nature reduces the likelihood simply based on time alone, of exposing others.

jonnycomputer 5y ago

the vaccines may not have been advertised as that, since the evidence during development for that was marginal. but recent evidence suggests that it does prevent infection. unfortunately, less true with omicron.

roenxi 5y ago

> The thing is, vaccines were never advertised as tools to prevent infection. A lot of people believed they were. I've spent some time arguing with people that the punishments for not taking the vaccine were too extreme, and that government-supported firing of people from their jobs was a bad idea. It was extremely common for people to argue that the vaccine would cut down on transmission (which is basically saying infection) and end the pandemic. Without that pillar it gets quite hard to justify the discrimination against unvaccinated people in Australia. Not sure about the rest of the world but I assume there is a similar story.

chasd00 5y ago
this is why i was, and continue to be, against the various vaccine mandates. My employer said to me "upload your vax card or get an exemption else be fired". It was a bridge too far for me and I submitted for an exemption request on grounds of personal conscious. However, a couple weeks later we get another email that says if your exemption request is denied you are fired. I could have taken a moral stand but i have a wife + 2 kids and a MIL dependent on my income and I decided it wasn't worth it. I ended up canceling my request and uploading my vax card. In the US the politicians know a law mandating the vaccine is a non-starter. So, instead, they encouraged and supported employers threatening their employees. I guess it's ironic that everyone is quitting everywhere anyway.

chiefalchemist 5y ago

> The thing is, vaccines were never advertised as tools to prevent infection. In the USA? Yes, they were. There was no mention of a future need for boosters. There was a simple promise of safety, and for things to return to normal.

spankalee 5y ago
No, they were promoted as drastically reducing the chance of severe symptoms and hospitalizations.
kelnos 5y ago
Literally everything I read about vaccine efficacy said that the metrics they tracked were about reducing the incidence of symptoms and serious disease. They didn't even test people in the clinical trials for COVID unless they started showing symptoms. Now, certainly, some media outlets may have been irresponsibly or ignorantly misinterpreting all this and pushing the narrative that it would make everyone immune. But that's not the CDC or WHO's fault. > There was no mention of a future need for boosters. Not sure what that has to do with anything. Things change. > There was a simple promise of safety, and for things to return to normal. You must have been reading some really watered-down news, and not actually reading what public health officials were saying.
- chiefalchemist 5y ago
  Well, the narrative being disconnected from facts is a different conversation.
icedchai 5y ago
We got to return to normal for about 2 months (June and July!) Maybe next year we’ll get 3 months, but I wouldn’t count on it.

josephg 5y ago

Who cares about the advertising? The data is in, and the vaccines do both - they decrease your chance to be infected and they make symptoms much more mild if you are infected. The combination of factors is why hospitalisation rates in highly vaccinated countries plummeted. Or at least they did until omicron. Unfortunately 2 doses of the existing vaccines are pretty ineffective against omicron. 3 doses make the vaccines work better - but I’m honestly a little concerned.