4 ms·

There's likely millions of virus variants out there already. Some will evolve to become much more contagious and most won't do much of anything. When a more se

There's likely millions of virus variants out there already. Some will evolve to become much more contagious and most won't do much of anything. When a more severe variant starts dominating and everyone goes inside and stops spreading it that makes the more severe variant die out. As it dies out, and people go outside, variants that are milder will thrive because people won't lockdown as easily. This can repeat forever until eventually the virus is completely benign. Of course it's all based on randomness so it's not exactly predictable what will happen.

nostoc 5y ago
Except "Everybody goes inside and stops spreading" is not something that is unique to a variant of concern. When everybody goes inside, all the variants stop spreading. The pressure is the same on every variants, so there's no source of evolutionary advantages on any variants.
- skulk 5y ago
  > no source of evolutionary advantages on any variants. Any variant that is able to co-exist with (rather than kill) its host during a full lockdown has a significant advantage. We co-exist with several coronaviruses already.
  - zamfi 5y ago
    Only true if the virus lasts long enough to outlive a lockdown. So far that hasn’t been the case for the vast majority of single hosts.
- zamfi 5y ago
  > Except "Everybody goes inside and stops spreading" is not something that is unique to a variant of concern. But it is — this will not be the response to a variant that doesn’t cause an increase in hospitalizations or deaths. A given response exerts pressure on all variants, of course. But a milder variant may be able to spread widely before a more lethal one shows up and ratchets up lockdowns.
heavyset_go 5y ago
> When a more severe variant starts dominating and everyone goes inside and stops spreading it that makes the more severe variant die out Except this doesn't happen, otherwise COVID would have already stopped spreading. Our social response to COVID isn't adequate enough to stop its spread. We can't get people to actually lock down or stop transmission.

nostoc 5y ago

Except "Everybody goes inside and stops spreading" is not something that is unique to a variant of concern. When everybody goes inside, all the variants stop spreading. The pressure is the same on every variants, so there's no source of evolutionary advantages on any variants.

skulk 5y ago
> no source of evolutionary advantages on any variants. Any variant that is able to co-exist with (rather than kill) its host during a full lockdown has a significant advantage. We co-exist with several coronaviruses already.
- zamfi 5y ago
  Only true if the virus lasts long enough to outlive a lockdown. So far that hasn’t been the case for the vast majority of single hosts.
zamfi 5y ago
> Except "Everybody goes inside and stops spreading" is not something that is unique to a variant of concern. But it is — this will not be the response to a variant that doesn’t cause an increase in hospitalizations or deaths. A given response exerts pressure on all variants, of course. But a milder variant may be able to spread widely before a more lethal one shows up and ratchets up lockdowns.

heavyset_go 5y ago

> When a more severe variant starts dominating and everyone goes inside and stops spreading it that makes the more severe variant die out Except this doesn't happen, otherwise COVID would have already stopped spreading. Our social response to COVID isn't adequate enough to stop its spread. We can't get people to actually lock down or stop transmission.