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Covid can't just mutate to become more and more transmissible off to infinity. The likelihood of a new variant being able to out compete Omicron is lower than a
by mikenew 5y ago
Covid can't just mutate to become more and more transmissible off to infinity. The likelihood of a new variant being able to out compete Omicron is lower than a variant that can out compete Delta. There's also selection pressure towards milder disease, because someone with milder disease is more likely to be out in the world spreading it than they are to be quarantined at home.
The probability of a more transmissible, more virulent strain just went down, not up. It certainly isn't zero, but "more transmissible less virulent" is exactly how viruses tend to evolve. Mutations are a dice roll and it there's no way to be sure of anything, but being a little optimistic is completely appropriate.
- panarky 5y ago> selection pressure How does selection pressure work when the disease is spread by people with no symptoms?