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I'm a climate fatalist: it really doesn't matter if climate change predictions are true or the degree to which they're true because there is absolutely no way h
by cletus 5y ago
I'm a climate fatalist: it really doesn't matter if climate change predictions are true or the degree to which they're true because there is absolutely no way humanity, as a species, will do anything about it that inconveniences a large number of people in any way.
The ugly truth is that people are quite willing to let other people die or simply to live in abject poverty to preserve their way of life, even if it's just temporarily.
We've seen it with Covid: a significant number of people won't get a vaccine with, at best, extremely minor risks of side effects, certainly much less than driving a car or flying on a commercial airplane, or wear a mask even though it demonstrably hampers transmission.
There are a multitude of reasons for this (both Covid and climate change). It's a scary situation. Historically, it's better to bet against the Mayans: the Mayans predicted the end of the world so what is the point in betting they're right because the world ends. For some, it's simply easier to pretend none of this is happening. But a lot of people are just struggling to get by.
There are two things we need to do to actually address climate change, in my opinion:
1. We need to elevate the standard of living of the baseline of people such that they aren't struggling, they aren't living paycheck-to-paycheck and they aren't at constant risk of financial ruin (eg unexpected medical expenses). People will care about these things when they aren't completely focused on basic needs like food and shelter.
A key part of this is that the ultra-wealthy need to start paying for the politically stable world that made their wealth possible and continues to do so. The ultimate form of wealth redistribution is war and revolution and nobody wants that.
2. The solution to emissions is economic not altruistic. You want to replace fossil fuels for energy? You need something cheaper. Nothing else matters.
So, as for the warning signs in this post: I can't speak to how meaningful they are. I am 100% convinced however that it doesn't matter because no one will listen or, more importantly, change their behaviour to a sufficient degree.
I am always skeptical of "the sky is falling" predictions however. Climate, in particular, has a bad track record for failed predictions. The Earth has been around for 4+ billion years and it's been a lot warmer than it is now, even very recently (ie within the last 100,000 years) so I'm skeptical about claims of runaway climate change, as just one example.
4 billion years is a long time for runaway conditions to occur naturally. We simply don't have adequate knowledge of what mechanisms will kick in in extreme conditions.