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Climate change is a slow-moving problem, and the situation with the Thwaites Glacier is no exception. From the scientific article's[1] own plain-language summa

Climate change is a slow-moving problem, and the situation with the Thwaites Glacier is no exception. From the scientific article's[1] own plain-language summary: "The Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is the floating terminus of the Thwaites Glacier, one of the fastest changing glaciers in Antarctica and contributing as much as 4% of global sea level rise today. This floating ice shelf is stabilized offshore by a marine shoal and acts as a dam to slow the flow of ice off the continent into the ocean. If this floating ice shelf breaks apart, the Thwaites Glacier will accelerate and its contribution to sea level rise will increase by as much as 25%." So, this specific ice shelf's collapse would increase global sea level rise by up to 1%. Over the coming decades, the dominant driver of sea level rise will continue to be thermal expansion of the ocean itself. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet in total may contribute 3 m of sea level rise... over a period of 13 thousand years[2]. [1]: https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm21/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/978762 https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm21/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/978762 [2]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4655561/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4655561/

echelon 5y ago
So Miami gets submerged 13,000 years from now and not within the next 50? My coworkers laugh when I tell them I'm looking at Miami real estate. It doesn't look like it's going anywhere but up in my lifetime, though.
gmuslera 5y ago
The yearly average global temperature is moving slowly (but at increasing speed. we are increasing emissions, old emissions accumulate for centuries, and we are already triggering positive feedback loops). Extreme weather is not, both in severity and in frequency. Doing big averages from a far, safe distance hide you the fact that is not so safe at local level, and the increase frequency turns every place into a dangerous to be one eventually. Sea rises slowly in average, but still there was plenty of floods this very year. You don't have to wait till the ocean catches you, an atmospheric river could ruin your life too.
- brandmeyer 5y ago
  Climate change is a big problem, but harping on ice-sheet collapse is a strategic mistake. We know a priori that ice sheet collapse is one of the longest-term threats. None of us will experience impact from them in our lifetime, and focusing on them hands the deniers their own talking points to them on a silver platter. Extreme weather events, wet-bulb temperature shifts, arable land changes, and habitat loss are near-term threats that are already having impact.

echelon 5y ago

So Miami gets submerged 13,000 years from now and not within the next 50? My coworkers laugh when I tell them I'm looking at Miami real estate. It doesn't look like it's going anywhere but up in my lifetime, though.

gmuslera 5y ago

The yearly average global temperature is moving slowly (but at increasing speed. we are increasing emissions, old emissions accumulate for centuries, and we are already triggering positive feedback loops). Extreme weather is not, both in severity and in frequency. Doing big averages from a far, safe distance hide you the fact that is not so safe at local level, and the increase frequency turns every place into a dangerous to be one eventually. Sea rises slowly in average, but still there was plenty of floods this very year. You don't have to wait till the ocean catches you, an atmospheric river could ruin your life too.

brandmeyer 5y ago
Climate change is a big problem, but harping on ice-sheet collapse is a strategic mistake. We know a priori that ice sheet collapse is one of the longest-term threats. None of us will experience impact from them in our lifetime, and focusing on them hands the deniers their own talking points to them on a silver platter. Extreme weather events, wet-bulb temperature shifts, arable land changes, and habitat loss are near-term threats that are already having impact.